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ARE WE PREPARED FOR LIFE BEYOND EARTH?  
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Margaret E. Kosal, Dayana Alagirova, Karryl Kim Sagun Trajano
September 1, 2026
The Conversation
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_ In our view, the question is not whether humanity will discover
life beyond Earth, but whether it is prepared for the consequences
when it does. _

"Learning How Microbes do Chemistry", by Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

 

Microbes from space have fueled the plots of science fiction mainstays
like “Project Hail Mary
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and “The Andromeda Strain
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more space missions launching each year, finding extraterrestrial life
in a microbial form [[link removed]] is becoming more
plausible. What will the response be back here on Earth if – or when
– scientists discover extraterrestrial microbes? Will the
international policy and security communities be prepared for the
fallout?

When you hear about extraterrestrial life, your mind may go to
intelligent life, like the kind present in a lot of Hollywood science
fiction. But even the confirmation of microbial life that originated
somewhere other than on Earth – which is much more likely – would
be a paradigm-shifting event. Thinking about what these consequences
might look like early on can help nations and the international
community prepare.

Our team is interested in this question. We’re made up of a full
professor of international affairs, who earned a Ph.D. in chemistry,
and whose expertise is on how emerging science and technologies
[[link removed]] could affect
global conflict and cooperation, as well as an emerging scholar in
space policy and security
[[link removed]] and an expert on
social and political implications
[[link removed]] of frontier
technologies, such as AI, space, quantum and energy sources.

Multiple Mars landers have identified large amounts of frozen and
liquid water [[link removed]], essential for
life, on the red planet. Samples retrieved by Japan’s Hayabusa2
spacecraft
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from a near-Earth asteroid revealed the presence of uracil
[[link removed]], part of RNA, which is a
building block of life. Uncrewed space probes like NASA’s Europa
Clipper [[link removed]] and the
European Space Agency’s Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer
[[link removed]] are on
their way to conduct detailed reconnaissance of the planet’s moons
and to investigate whether they have conditions suitable for life.

 Scientists are searching for life in space using what they know
about life on Earth. But what will happen if or when they find
something?

Along with data from the James Webb Space Telescope
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and future missions targeting Saturn’s icy moon Enceladus
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the likelihood of discovering extraterrestrial microbial life has
increased substantially.

A governance challenge

The discovery of microbial life would expose significant gaps in
international governance related to space.

While there are some existing international agreements, including the
Outer Space Treaty
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that provide space law guidelines, these are ill-equipped to address
the complexities posed by extraterrestrial biology.

The Outer Space Treaty [[link removed]],
established in 1967, dictates that
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countries should use outer space peacefully. It also states that no
single nation may claim ownership
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or exert sovereignty over parts of outer space or celestial bodies
such as the Moon.

[A semicircle-shaped room full of people sitting at tables.]
[[link removed]]The
U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is one of the few
existing pathways for the governance of space. United States Mission
to International Organizations in Vienna
[[link removed]], CC BY-NC-ND
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However, it doesn’t have much to say about who can own
extraterrestrial organisms or what to do about biosecurity risks. It
doesn’t have direction for who can use, preserve or destroy living
things, such as bacteria or fungi, that may be discovered in space.

Historical analogies and future pathways

While people have yet to discover extraterrestrial life of any kind,
there are some major geopolitical events that can help researchers
understand what the consequences might look like.

While the space race of the 1950s and ’60s
[[link removed]] led to exploration
of the Moon, it was driven by a Cold War power struggle between two
nations back on Earth. Instead of coming together to explore space,
both countries experienced a renewed sense of nationalism
[[link removed]]. They used the new discoveries
that came from the space race to invest in their military
capabilities.

On the other hand, researchers can look at how states respond to
asteroid threats [[link removed]].
Since an asteroid could pose a truly existential threat
[[link removed]] from space, preventing the
worst-case scenario requires cooperation and thinking ahead.

Astronomers have built a global, collaborative network
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potential threats. This network has shown that nations can put aside
terrestrial rivalries to work together if they perceive something from
space as a truly existential threat.

The International Space Station
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showing how nations that are competing great powers on Earth
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cooperate in space. Countries have collaborated to solve issues on the
International Space Station that have specific, short-term and clearly
identified goals.

[The International Space Station, which is a metal structure with
solar panels coming off it, floating above Earth]
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The ISS is an example of countries cooperating in space research.
NASA/Roscosmos [[link removed]]

These examples show a range of possible reactions to the discovery of
space microbes. The situation could renew space races between
competing countries and lead to militarization, or it could create
unprecedented cooperation.

Potential outcomes

We’ve identified three main possible outcomes to the discovery of
microbial extraterrestrial life.

First, there’s a cooperative outcome, reminiscent of the asteroid
threat network [[link removed]] or
the International Space Station
[[link removed]]. Here, nations
collaborate to regulate research, share data, protect the planet or
advance specific interests they share.

This pathway isn’t inherently benign or malignant. It could entail
expanding the roles of international organizations or creating new
legal instruments
[[link removed]].

Second there’s a competitive outcome, characterized by strategic
rivalry between countries. Like in the space race, nations could fight
to be technologically superior
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They might try to monopolize access
[[link removed](93)90006-7] to the extraterrestrial
microbes or to leverage biological discoveries from the microbes for
their own economic or military advantage.

Scientific breakthroughs derived from extraterrestrial organisms could
lead to innovations in medicine, agriculture, energy and beyond.
However, the organisms could also be weaponized, intentionally or
otherwise, which would amplify biosecurity risks
[[link removed]]. In this sense, the discovery
of microbial life could create a new form of technological
competition, one that merges space exploration with biological
research and development.

The increasing role of private companies
[[link removed]], such as SpaceX,
complicates this dynamic. These companies receive contracts from the
government, blurring the lines
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between commercial civilian and strategic activities.

For example, around 60% of all satellites
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orbiting the Earth belong to SpaceX’s Starlink subsidiary. The
company can – and has – chosen to block access
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selectively, in alignment with its political priorities. When
commercial interests and national priorities diverge, who has access
versus who is denied access can be uncertain.

Research around biopiracy
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may come into play. Biopiracy is a term that applies to two primary
issues: the patenting of indigenous knowledge
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or the patenting of natural resources, such as microbes, for profit.
The Budapest Treaty
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prohibits claiming ownership of a naturally occurring microbe on
Earth, but there’s no equivalent for microbes in space.

Third is an isolationist outcome, in which states could sever their
involvement in international cooperation due to biosecurity concerns
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or political distrust. The potential for unknown biological risks,
however minimal, could trigger precautionary restrictions on data
sharing [[link removed]], which limits
international collaboration.

Countries may lose or gain allies as they grapple with whether the
microbe could cause harm to humans or the environment, or be developed
into a biological weapon.

Emerging technologies will also shape these outcomes. Artificial
intelligence and machine learning
[[link removed]] are already integral to
scientific research. Scientists use them to process astronomical data
[[link removed]] and identify potential
biosignatures [[link removed]].
Nanotechnology [[link removed]] and
advances in the life sciences and engineering
[[link removed]] could allow researchers
to study, modify or exploit extraterrestrial microbes, if they’re
given access to them.

Countries will have to prepare not only for the scientific
implications of discovery but also for its societal and political
reverberations. The politicization of scientific discoveries from the
microbes could complicate or change how countries respond domestically
and at the international scale. Misinformation about the microbes
could shape policy and public response
[[link removed]].

Preparing for the unprecedented

The discovery of extraterrestrial microbial life would not merely mark
a scientific milestone. It would be a geopolitical event.

Rather than attempting to predict a singular outcome, policymakers
could adopt scenario-based planning
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approaches in the meantime to anticipate and prepare for a range of
possibilities. In these approaches, participants explore multiple
futures through structured activities similar to professional or
military wargaming or path games
[[link removed]], in which they
explore multiple outcomes systematically to test strategies, to plan
and to analyze potential outcomes under realistic uncertainty.

In our view, the question is not whether humanity will discover life
beyond Earth, but whether it is prepared for the consequences when it
does.[The Conversation]

Margaret E. Kosal
[[link removed]],
Professor of International Affairs, _Georgia Institute of Technology_
[[link removed]];
Dayana Alagirova
[[link removed]], Ph.D.
Student in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, _Georgia
Institute of Technology_
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and Karryl Kim Sagun Trajano
[[link removed]],
Research Fellow for Future Issues and Technology, _Nanyang
Technological University_
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This article is republished from The Conversation
[[link removed]] under a Creative Commons license. Read
the original article
[[link removed]].

* Extraterrestrial intelligence
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* exobiology
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