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Today's Market Update For You
Michael Burry Closed His Nvidia and Palantir Bets. His Next Target Is the
Dollar.
Written by Andrew Green
C4 Quick Take
The Quick Take
Michael Burry sold his bearish put options on Nvidia and Palantir that were
set to expire in December, according to Benzinga.
Burry has shifted his public commentary toward betting against the US dollar
rather than against individual AI-linked stocks.
He has pointed to physical fine wine as one way he is expressing that currency
view, according to the same report.
Nvidia closed Thursday at $218.37, down from $223.77 Wednesday, while Palantir
closed at $165.885, down from $169.525, based on Alpaca market data.
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C4 Body
What Happened
A Well-Known Bear Steps Back From Two AI Stocks
Michael Burry, the investor who built his reputation shorting the housing
market before the 2008 financial crisis, closed out bearish put options on
Nvidia and Palantir this week, according to Benzinga. Both positions had been
set to expire in December, and both companies sit near the center of the
market's ongoing debate over artificial intelligence valuations. Burry has been
a vocal skeptic of AI-related stock valuations for months, making the timing of
this exit notable even without a detailed explanation attached to it.
The move comes as both stocks have already pulled back from recent highs.
Nvidia closed Thursday at $218.37, down from $223.77 the day before, while
Palantir closed at $165.885, down from $169.525, according to Alpaca market
data. Closing a bearish position after a stock has already declined can reflect
a bet that most of the expected move has already played out, though Burry has
not laid out his full reasoning publicly. It can also simply reflect ordinary
portfolio management around an options expiration date, since December puts
require a fresh decision on whether to hold, roll, or close as the contract
approaches maturity.
What has drawn more attention is where Burry appears to be redirecting his
focus. Rather than staying bearish on individual AI companies, he has shifted
toward betting against the US dollar, and has specifically pointed to physical
fine wine as one vehicle for expressing that view, treating it as a store of
value outside the traditional currency system. That kind of trade sits well
outside how most retail investors think about currency exposure, which is part
of why it has attracted attention beyond his usual audience of options traders.
Burry has used unconventional framing for his positions before, and this latest
comment fits that same pattern of expressing a macro view through an asset most
investors would not immediately connect to currency markets.
Why It Matters
A Contrarian's Pivot Says Something About Where the Real Risk Sits
Burry has built a public following partly because his bearish calls, when they
land, tend to be memorable. His decision to step back from Nvidia and Palantir
specifically does not mean he has turned bullish on artificial intelligence
spending broadly, but it does suggest he sees less asymmetric opportunity in
betting against those two names right now than he did when he opened the
positions. Options traders often close a position once the risk-reward has
shifted, even if their underlying skepticism about a company or sector has not
changed at all.
A prominent AI bear stepping away from AI stocks to bet against the dollar
instead says more about currency risk than it does about chip demand.
The dollar bet is the more unusual part of the story. Betting against a
currency through an asset like fine wine, rather than through more conventional
instruments such as currency futures or gold, reflects a view that inflation
and monetary policy uncertainty could erode the dollar's purchasing power over
time, regardless of what happens to any single sector of the stock market. It
also fits a broader pattern among some macro-focused investors of looking for
stores of value outside traditional financial instruments when they expect
currency volatility to increase.
By the Numbers
Key Fact What It Means
NVDA Thursday close $218.37, down from $223.77 Wednesday, based on Alpaca data.
PLTR Thursday close $165.885, down from $169.525 Wednesday, based on Alpaca
data.
Burry's prior position Bearish December puts on both NVDA and PLTR, now
closed, per Benzinga.
Burry's new stated focus Betting against the US dollar, with fine wine cited
as one expression of the trade.
Nvidia and Palantir both declined from Wednesday to Thursday before Burry's
positions were closed, based on Alpaca market data.
Reader Question
Burry closed his bearish AI stock bets right as he started talking about
shorting the dollar instead. Do you think that shift means the AI trade has
cooled off enough to stop betting against it, or is he simply chasing a bigger
and different risk?
Hit reply — one line is enough.
What to Watch Next
Positioning Shifts Worth Tracking Into Next Week
Burry's next public disclosures, including any updated 13F filing, will show
whether this shift extends beyond public commentary into new tracked positions.
Investors who follow his trades closely will be watching for confirmation of a
broader dollar-focused strategy rather than a one-off comment, since 13F
filings only capture US-listed equity and options positions and would not
directly show a physical asset like wine.
More broadly, Nvidia and Palantir's price action into next week's Federal
Reserve meeting will be a real-time test of whether the market agrees with
Burry's apparent view that the easy bearish trade on AI stocks has already
played out, or whether new pressure from rising bond yields sends both stocks
lower regardless of his exit. Rate-sensitive growth stocks, a category that
includes both companies, have historically been among the first to react when
Treasury yields move sharply in either direction.
What to Watch Next
1 · Burry's next 13F filing
Will show whether his dollar-focused shift extends into new tracked
institutional positions.
2 · Nvidia and Palantir price action into the Fed meeting
A test of whether rising bond yields pressure both stocks independent of
Burry's exit.
3 · Dollar index movement
The clearest read on whether Burry's currency thesis is gaining traction with
other investors.
The Bottom Line
Burry closing his Nvidia and Palantir puts does not amount to a bullish call
on artificial intelligence stocks. It reads more as a signal that he sees less
remaining edge in that specific bearish trade, at a moment when both stocks had
already pulled back from recent highs.
His pivot toward betting against the dollar, expressed through an
unconventional asset like fine wine, points to a broader concern about currency
and monetary policy risk rather than any single sector of the market, and it is
worth tracking whether other macro investors start expressing similar views in
the weeks ahead. If that view spreads beyond one high-profile investor, it
could show up first in currency futures positioning long before it shows up in
any single stock's price.
A well-known AI bear stepping back from AI stocks to focus on the dollar
suggests the bigger risk he sees now sits in currency markets, not in chip
demand.
One More Question
Most desks say a weaker dollar would raise the cost of imported goods and
travel for ordinary households, even if it helps large exporters. If the dollar
keeps losing value, would that change how you think about holding cash versus
other assets in your own portfolio?
Andrew reads every reply.
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2026-08-03 23:21:43 +00:00 IMG0409_647 - 11.09 (2) 19815453 26004738
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