A new Ukrainian strike is making headlines. The public story is about drones,
targets, and damage. But buried beneath the coverage is a much quieter story.


 


<[link removed]> 


Sep 11, 2026



<[link removed]>





A new Ukrainian strike is making headlines.

<[link removed]>
The public story is about drones, targets, and damage.

But buried beneath the coverage is a much quieter story.

We stumbled across evidence suggesting the real advantage may have come from
technology quietly supplied
<[link removed]>
by the United States.

It is rarely discussed publicly.

But once you see what it does, the success of the strike begins to make much
more sense.

Click here to learn more
<[link removed]>



 



CPI Came In at 3.4%. Hike Odds Just Jumped to 90%. Here Is the Mechanism That
Got There.
Written by Evan Brooks · September 11, 2026







The Numbers

* August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, matching July's pace and coming in
slightly above the3.3% economist consensus. Monthly CPI gained 0.4%, outpacing
July's0.1% monthly gain. Gasoline kept prices elevated — the print was driven
by energy costs tied directly to the Iran conflict.
* Core CPI — excluding food and energy — rose 2.4% annually, in line with
expectations and down from2.5% in July. Monthly core jumped 0.3%, above the 0.2%
forecast, representing an acceleration from July's pace. Bank of America
Securities economistStephen Juneau called the data insufficient to alter the
message of limited inflation progress.
* Fed hike odds surged to 90% from 70% in the hour after the CPI release, per
CME FedWatch. The S&P 500 opened up0.96%, the Dow gained 1.15%, and the Nasdaq
added0.88% — the market reading the in-line print as a ceiling on hawkish
surprise rather than a floor on further tightening.
Why the Market Rallied on a Number That All But Confirms a Rate Hike
The opening-bell rally on a 90% hike probability is the apparent
contradiction that needs a mechanism to resolve it. The data released at 8:30
a.m. ET on September 11 confirmed what the market had already priced in across
four consecutive down sessions: CPI at3.4%, core at 2.4%, monthly acceleration.
The S&P 500's four-session losing streak had already absorbed a hike — the
question was whether CPI would deliver a number so far above consensus that the
committee would need to move more than 25 basis points, or signal a faster
path. It did not. A print that matches the July pace is not the same as an
upside surprise. The word that mattered most in Alexandra Wilson-Elizo's
post-release analysis was not the annual headline figure — it was that the data
does not fully capture some of the inflation pressures that have emerged more
recently. That framing acknowledged the in-line reading while keeping the
forward path open. Markets took the distinction.
The division inside the Fed that produced a 9-3 vote in July has not
resolved. GovernorChristopher Waller said in remarks this week that he would
back holding rates steady only if data confirm disinflation — a conditional
statement that keeps him on the hold side if this print is read charitably. The
three dissenters —Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan — had already
staked out the hike position before the CPI print arrived. What the September
11 data does is make it harder for the remaining six who voted to hold in July
to justify a second consecutive pause. A3.4% annual rate, a 0.3% monthly core
acceleration, Brent crude at$107, and a labor market that added 162,000 jobs in
August is not the disinflation picture Waller said he would need to see.





Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new
type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT.

It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs... and Elon Musk calls the
underlying tech "the most disruptive force in history."

And it turns out... without the public knowing it... billionaire Sam Altman
was behind this all along.

Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as Trump backs Sam Altman's Next
Venture
<[link removed]>


Ad by Stansberry Research




The Component That Did the Most Work — and the One That Didn't Help
The monthly acceleration in headline CPI from 0.1% in July to 0.4% in August
is almost entirely attributable to energy. Gasoline, which had fallen2.9% in
July as Brent briefly retreated, reversed course in August as the Iran conflict
resumed. That reversal is the mechanism that kept the year-over-year rate at3.4%
rather than allowing the modest underlying deceleration in core services to
show through in the headline. The component that did not help is the one the
Fed weights most heavily: core services excluding shelter, sometimes called
supercore, which Warsh has cited repeatedly as the measure that best captures
domestically driven price pressure. Supercore has been running above4%
annualized for much of 2026, and the September 11 print did not materially
change that picture. The energy shock is layered on top of a services inflation
problem that exists independently of the Iran war — which is why the path back
to2% remains as uncertain after the print as it was before it.
What 90% Odds Actually Price In — and What Remains Open After September 16
A 90% probability on CME FedWatch prices in a 25-basis-point hike as the base
case with high conviction. It does not price in what follows. The September dot
plot — which the Fed releases quarterly — will show whether the broader
committee has shifted toward projecting additional hikes in November or
December, or whether September is framed as a one-and-done adjustment. That
secondary signal will move the 2-year Treasury yield, currently at4.427%, more
than the rate decision itself, because the 2-year is a forward-looking
instrument priced on the expected path, not the single meeting. A dot plot that
shows a median of two additional hikes in 2026 is a different outcome for bond
markets than a dot plot that shows September as the final move. The September
11 CPI print — in-line, no upside shock, energy-driven — gives the Fed cover to
hike once and signal patience rather than escalate the path. Whether Chair
Warsh takes that cover or uses the meeting to shift the path steeper is what
September 16 will actually decide. The CPI already told us the rate is going
up. It did not tell us what comes next.

Sources: CBS News · AOL Finance · TheStreet · Newsy Today · CME FedWatch ·
FXStreet · Bank of America Securities · Investrade




<[link removed]>

 

[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> is on The Raw
Capital list because you opted in before the crowd caught on.

If we go quiet — look in promotions, updates, or wherever your inbox files
things it hasn't figured out yet.

Unsubscribe
<[link removed]>
. We'll part ways cleanly.

If something's off, you can reach us here <mailto:[email protected]>

254 Chapman Rd Ste 208 Newark, Delaware 19702.
<[link removed]>

Privacy Policy <[link removed]>



 

© 2026 Alpha One Marketers LLC. All rights reserved.