DAILY BRIEF CENSUS / REPRESENTATION

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PROPOSES EXCLUDING IMMIGRANTS FROM 2030 CENSUS, RESHAPING HOUSE APPORTIONMENT

PROPOSED APPORTIONMENT RULE

WHO WOULD COUNT FOR HOUSE APPORTIONMENT

INCLUDED

U.S. citizens
Lawful permanent residents

EXCLUDED

Undocumented immigrants
Nonpermanent legal statuses

The Trump administration proposed a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. census on Wednesday that would exclude undocumented immigrants and other noncitizens lacking permanent legal status from the population counts used to apportion House seats after the 2030 census. The proposed rule, submitted by the Commerce Department and set to be published in the Federal Register, argues that the Constitution's requirement to count the "whole number of persons" in each state was never meant to include people the administration describes as lacking a sufficient "tie and allegiance" to the country.

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“whole number of persons in each State”

CONSTITUTIONAL APPORTIONMENT LANGUAGE

The change marks a sharp break from historical census practice. The 1790 Census Act instructed enumerators to determine residence based on a person's "usual place of abode," and modern census rules have counted foreign citizens living in the United States at the place where they live and sleep most of the time, without distinguishing between lawful and unlawful immigration status for apportionment. Under the new proposal, lawful permanent residents would remain in the apportionment base, while undocumented immigrants and foreign citizens whose legal status is less durable than permanent residency would be excluded.

1790

FIRST CENSUS ACT

The concept of “usual residence” has guided the census since the first federal enumeration.

WHY THE COUNT MATTERS

Population count

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435 House seats

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State representation

The proposal would also increase the Census Bureau's use of administrative records to determine an individual's legal status. The agency says its available records include information from the Department of Homeland Security, Treasury Department, Department of State, Health and Human Services, Postal Service, state and local governments, and other sources. The Census Bureau is also considering adding a legal-status question to the short-form decennial questionnaire.

ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS

The proposal contemplates using federal records to help determine whether a noncitizen has the type of legal status required for inclusion in the apportionment base.

DHS

Treasury

State / other records

A SECOND PROPOSED CHANGE

Separately, the proposed rule would prohibit questions about race and ethnicity or sexual orientation on the short-form decennial census questionnaire and other questionnaires used for the population enumeration. The Census Bureau cites privacy, response burden and "substantial doubts" about the continued usefulness and meaning of some demographic classifications. The restriction would not apply to the American Community Survey or prevent the Census Bureau from obtaining demographic information through administrative records and other sources.

DECENNIAL SHORT FORM

Race & ethnicity questions proposed for removal

NOT COVERED BY THIS RESTRICTION

American Community Survey

Because census population data determine the allocation of seats in the House and provide the foundation for congressional and legislative redistricting, the proposal could have significant political consequences after the 2030 count. Census data are also widely used in federal funding formulas and government planning, although the proposed residence rule specifically addresses which people would be included in the population base used for congressional apportionment. The proposal is expected to face legal challenges and congressional scrutiny, echoing the court fight over the administration's attempt during Trump's first term to exclude undocumented immigrants from the 2020 apportionment count.

WHAT MATTERS

Three elements of the proposed overhaul

The proposal would keep lawful permanent residents in the apportionment base but exclude undocumented immigrants and other foreign citizens whose legal status is considered less durable than permanent residency.

The Census Bureau is considering extensive use of administrative records to determine legal status and is also inviting public comment on whether to include a legal-status question on the decennial short form.

A separate portion of the proposal would remove race and ethnicity questions from the decennial enumeration questionnaire, while leaving the Census Bureau free to collect such information through the American Community Survey and administrative records.

SOURCES

Census Overhaul Proposed by Trump Administration Could Reshape Congress — Roll Call
Decennial Census of the Population of Americans; Proposed Residence Criteria and Proposed Regulations for Demographic Questions — U.S. Census Bureau / Federal Register
Trump Administration Proposes Excluding Huge Swath of Immigrants From U.S. Census — Reuters