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Thursday, September 10, 2026 • Daily Market Alert

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Explore Today's Market News from Behind the Markets:

Adobe's AI business tripled in a year. Its stock is down 31% from its high.

Adobe reports fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after the close, and the
setup is unusual: the numbers Wall Street expects would be a good quarter, and
the stock is trading as if the company already missed.

Shares closed Wednesday at $254.86, down 0.93% on the day and roughly 31%
below the 52-week high of $370.86. Analysts model revenue of about $6.7 billion
and adjusted earnings of $6.09 a share, against $5.99 billion and $5.31 a year
ago — growth of about 12% on the top line and 15% on the bottom. Adobe's own
guidance is $6.67 billion to $6.72 billion in revenue and $6.05 to $6.10 in
non-GAAP earnings. Consensus, in other words, sits at the top of what
management told investors to expect.

That gap between fundamentals and price is the whole story, and it did not
open this week.

The succession problem

Adobe announced that Anil Chakravarthy will replace Shantanu Narayen as chief
executive effective December 1, 2026. Narayen has run the company since 2007.
The stock fell about 6.7% on the announcement to $266.51 — a leadership handoff
disclosed days before an earnings print, with an interim finance chief, Steven
Day, already in the seat.

Investors rarely reward that combination. The reaction was not a verdict on
Chakravarthy, who built Adobe's digital experience business into a
multibillion-dollar segment. It was a verdict on timing: a new CEO takes over a
company being asked, every quarter, whether generative AI is a growth engine or
an extinction event for design software.

Options markets are pricing a 5.4% move on Thursday's report in either
direction.

What the AI numbers actually say

Adobe's disclosures on this point have been specific, which is more than most
software companies offer.

* AI-first annual recurring revenue passed $500 million at the close of the
fiscal second quarter, roughly triple the prior year.
* Firefly ARR is approaching $300 million, up about 50% quarter over quarter.
* The Acrobat AI assistant tripled its ARR year over year.
* Firefly asset generation ran at 4x the prior-year rate.
* GenStudio ARR grew 25% year over year.
* Second-quarter revenue was $6.62 billion.
Those are real dollars attached to products that did not exist three years
ago. The bear case is not that they are fake. It is that they are too small to
offset what Adobe gives up when a marketing team generates images without
buying more Creative Cloud seats.

Citi raised its price target to $301 from $228 while keeping a Neutral
rating, after modeling roughly a $500 million organic reduction to Adobe's
full-year total ARR guidance. Barclays moved to $295 from $250 at Equal Weight.
RBC expects results roughly in line. Analysts are marking their targets up and
their ratings sideways — a pattern worth watching, because it means the sell
side thinks the stock is cheap and the business is uncertain at the same time.
That tension shows up across software right now, and it is the same question we
worked through in what actually separates a durable software franchise from a
rented one.

One more wrinkle: Adobe deferred second-half Creative Cloud price
optimizations. Pricing power postponed is pricing power questioned.

The other report Thursday night

Oracle posts fiscal first-quarter results the same evening — consensus of
$1.74 a share on about $19.14 billion in revenue. Oracle's remaining
performance obligation hit a record $638 billion last quarter, up $85 billion
sequentially and 363% year over year, powered by an OpenAI arrangement worth
roughly $300 billion over several years. The stock closed Wednesday at $161.63,
down 0.55%.

Two of the largest enterprise software franchises in the market report within
an hour of each other, and both trade far below where they did a year ago. We
walked through the arithmetic of Oracle's backlog and its share price earlier
this week.

Also on the Thursday calendar: August producer prices before the open, where
economists expect a 0.4% monthly increase against July's flat reading, and a
jump to 5.3% year over year from 4.7%. Core PPI is seen at 0.3% monthly and
4.6% annually. Energy prices inside the index are estimated to have risen about
2.2% — which brings us to the reason equities could not hold a bid Wednesday.

Where the tape closed

Oil did the damage. Brent settled up $3.29, or 3.4%, at $101.21 a barrel
after touching $101.58, its highest close since May 22. West Texas Intermediate
settled at $96.05, up 3.25%. Iran struck a U.S. base in Jordan and attacked
ships near the Strait of Hormuz in the largest wave of assaults on shipping
since the war began seven months ago. Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven has
flagged a rising probability of Brent above $120. Physical dated Brent has been
above $100 since September 3. The energy squeeze is no longer confined to crude
futures, as diesel's record run showed this week.

Equities:

* S&P 500: 7,636.36, down 37.16 points, or 0.48%
* Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,380.66, down 405.41 points, or 0.77%
* Nasdaq Composite: 26,253.34, down 168.07 points, or 0.64%
* CBOE Volatility Index: 16.46, up 4.71%
* 10-year Treasury: 4.845%, up 4.1 basis points
Apple held its fall event and unveiled the iPhone Duo, its first foldable,
with a 5.4-inch outer display opening to a 7.6-inch screen, an A20 Pro
processor, and a starting price of $1,999 for 256GB — $3,199 for the 2TB
configuration. Preorders open October 16, with availability October 23. The
Apple Watch Series 12 stays at $399 and the Ultra 4 at $799. The stock fell as
much as 1.4% during the presentation, recovered, and closed at $315.34, down
0.28%. New CEO John Ternus got his launch; the market reserved judgment for the
late-October earnings call, when holiday guidance arrives.

Chewy took the day's worst hit among large caps. The company beat and raised
— net sales of $3.33 billion, up 7.3%; gross margin of 30.4%; adjusted earnings
of $0.36 a share; adjusted EBITDA of $226.7 million, up $43.4 million year over
year — and the stock closed at $20.75, down 10.83%. Autoship sales ran near
$2.8 billion. A beat-and-raise met with a double-digit decline is the clearest
single data point on how this tape treats good news, a pattern we tracked
across last week's reporters as well.

Semis stayed firm against the drift: Lumentum closed at $988.98, up 1.07%,
and Intel at $106.24, up 1.69%.

Continue Reading →
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