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5 Defensive Stocks to Watch as CPI and the Fed Put the Rally to the Test
Written by Ryan Hasson on September 8, 2026
Key Points
- CPI, the Fed’s September meeting, and midterm-year seasonality could test a market that remains near record territory.
- McDonald’s, Johnson & Johnson, and Walmart offer defensive demand profiles that may hold up better if consumers pull back.
- Berkshire Hathaway and NextEra Energy add balance-sheet strength, utility income and power-demand exposure to the defensive mix.
- Special Report: Get this “Fed ticker” before September 16
The market has enjoyed a strong run this year, despite pockets of volatility and uncertainty. Year-to-date (YTD), the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) is up about 13%, and heading into the new week, it’s only 1.4% shy of its all-time high. But the next couple of weeks bring a cluster of catalysts that could test it. The August inflation report is due this Friday, Sept. 11, and it lands just five days before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Sept. 16.
Either event could move markets sharply, and they arrive back-to-back. On top of that, there is a seasonal wrinkle worth keeping in mind and respecting: 2026 is a midterm election year, and history shows that midterm years have often produced some of the sharpest intra-year declines, frequently in the autumn, before markets recover strongly once the vote passes.
None of this is a reason to panic, and it is certainly not a forecast that stocks will fall. It is simply a reminder that preparation is rarely a bad idea in the markets. If the market's response to CPI, the Fed, and the political calendar turns sour, it helps to know which stocks have historically weathered volatility better than most. The five names below are not the sort that double or triple in value during a bull run. Several of them have even lagged the market this year. But they share the defensive qualities, steady demand, low volatility, and, in most cases, dependable dividends that tend to help them hold their ground when the broader market struggles or turns sharply lower.
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McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is one of the market's classic defensive holdings, and the reason is counterintuitive. When household budgets tighten, consumers do not stop eating out entirely; they trade down, swapping pricier restaurants for the value and convenience of fast food. That dynamic can actually lift McDonald's traffic during economic soft patches, giving it a rare quality. A business that can hold steady, or even benefit, when discretionary spending elsewhere dries up.
The stock has genuinely struggled this year, down about 16% on weak US sales, and it sits near multi-year lows as it approaches a major support area near $250. But that is arguably what makes it interesting as a defensive holding right now. It carries an attractively low beta for conservative-minded investors, at just 0.41, meaning it moves far less than the overall market. It is a Dividend Aristocrat yielding close to 3%, with decades of consecutive increases. And even after a difficult stretch, analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $321.35, implying more than 25% upside. For a business that tends to prove resilient exactly when consumers pull back, the recent weakness may be an opportunity rather than a warning.
Johnson & Johnson: Healthcare Doesn't Wait for the Economy
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) sits in one of the most reliably defensive sectors. Demand for medicines and medical devices does not rise and fall with the business cycle; people need treatment regardless of what the market is doing. That non-discretionary demand gives Johnson & Johnson unusually steady revenue, and its diversified footprint across pharmaceuticals and medtech cushions it further.
Unlike several names here, J&J has also performed strongly this year, up almost 33% and trading near its 52-week high. It pairs that strength with one of the lowest betas in the entire market, at just 0.24, and a fortress balance sheet. As a Dividend King with more than six decades of consecutive increases, it yields close to 2%. The stock trades roughly in line with its average analyst price target after its strong run, so the appeal here is less about near-term upside and more about the rare combination of stability, income, and quality that investors reach for when markets wobble.
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Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) may be the single most reliable outperformer during periods of economic stress. Its entire model is built around low prices, and when times get tough, shoppers of every income level gravitate toward value. The company saw this play out in past downturns, gaining market share as consumers traded down from pricier retailers. Groceries, which make up a large share of its sales, add another layer of defensiveness, since people have to eat no matter the backdrop.
That combination of staples exposure and value positioning has made Walmart the single highest-ranked stock in the consumer staples sector on MarketBeat, sitting in the 99th percentile. The stock is slightly in the red for the year, with a modest beta of 0.59. Analysts remain constructive, with a Moderate Buy consensus and an average price target of $131.88, implying more than 23% upside. For a business that tends to strengthen exactly when the economy weakens, Walmart is hard to beat.
Berkshire Hathaway: A Fortress Built for Downturns
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) is arguably the ultimate all-weather holding. The conglomerate is deliberately structured to withstand, and capitalize on, turmoil. It sits on an enormous cash pile that gives it the firepower to buy assets cheaply when others are forced to sell, and its diversified collection of businesses spanning insurance, energy, rail, and consumer brands provides ballast that a single-sector company cannot match.
That structure has historically allowed Berkshire to hold up better than the market during selloffs, and its below-market beta of 0.61 reflects that resilience. The stock trades at a modest price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just under 13, and the company continues to demonstrate its opportunistic streak, having boosted its Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) stake to a top-three position worth nearly $38 billion. Berkshire pays no dividend, preferring to reinvest, and has fairly thin formal analyst coverage, with only three analysts covering the name, a consensus Hold rating, and price targets forecasting roughly 7% upside potential. But its immense balance sheet and mountain of cash make it one of the most dependable places to weather a storm.
NextEra Energy: Defensive Income With a Growth Angle
NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) rounds out the list as the income anchor, though with a twist the others lack. As one of the largest utilities in the United States, NextEra enjoys the steady, predictable cash flows that make utilities a traditional haven as people pay their power bills in good times and bad. That regulated revenue base provides a defensive foundation, reflected in a low beta of 0.65 and a dividend yield near 3%.
What sets NextEra apart is the growth layer on top. As a leading generator of wind and solar power and a direct beneficiary of surging electricity demand from AI data centers, it offers a growth angle most utilities cannot. The company just cleared a major step in its merger with Dominion Energy, which shareholders approved in early September. The deal adds scale to an already dominant franchise. NextEra ranks in the 99th percentile on MarketBeat and carries a Moderate Buy consensus, with an average price target of $100.33, implying nearly 20% upside. For investors who want defensive income without giving up on growth entirely, it fits the bill.
Preparation, Not Prediction
To be clear, this is not a call for the market to fall. The economy may absorb the coming catalysts smoothly, and the historical midterm-year weakness is a tendency, not a guarantee. But the value of these five names is that you do not have to predict the future to benefit from owning them. They are quality businesses with durable demand, strong balance sheets, and, in most cases, dependable dividends. They’re the kind of stocks that let investors stay invested with a little more peace of mind during periods of market turmoil.
Notably, three of the five also carry double-digit analyst price-target upside, so this is not simply a matter of hiding out. If the reaction to CPI, the Fed, and the months ahead turns turbulent, these are the sort of companies investors will be glad to hold. And if the market sails through, they remain solid, well-run businesses worth keeping on the radar. That is the advantage of preparing rather than reacting.
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