Either way, the research we have for you today could change everything you know
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Editor’s Note: When the market crashed 37% in 2008, Larry Benedict made $95
millionfor his clients. Now he is sounding the alarm on oil. He warns that high
oil prices could strangle the U.S. economy. Yet where others see disaster,
Larry sees one of the biggest opportunities in 40 years, anda way for regular
folks to profit without owning a single oil stock. He lays it all out in a free
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Either way, the research we have for you today could change everything you
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And could put as much $6,268 in your pocket, over and over again.

Looking forward to your response.

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Sincerely,

Lauren Wingfield
Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader


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The ROI Open
Oil, Yields, and an 11% Drop Nobody’s Earnings Beat Could Stop
Three fresh, dated signals — a $100 oil print, a 4.81% Treasury yield, and an
earnings beat that still cost shareholders 11% in one session — and what each
one means for capital already at risk.

Wednesday, September 9, gave investors three separate reminders that a good
headline and a good return are not the same thing. Brent crude touched $100 a
barrel for the first time since July. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.81%.
And Chewy, the online pet retailer, beat revenue estimates and raised its
full-year sales outlook — then watched its stock fall 11% by midday. Here is
what each signal actually measures, and what it doesn’t.
ROI Signal 01 — Oil crosses $100, and the Dow moves more than the S&P
Brent crude closed at $100 a barrel on September 9, 2026, its first visit to
that level since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.18% on the
session while the S&P 500 dropped a smaller 0.58% — a gap that shows the Dow’s
energy and industrial weighting felt the move more than the broader index. WTI
crude rose $2.88, or 3.10%, to $95.89.

This is a price signal, not a return calculation — it does not tell us whether
an energy-producer stock’s gain reflects durable cash flow or a temporary price
spike.
ROI Signal 02 — The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.81%, and the Treasury itself
is buying bonds to hold the line
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.81% on September 9, up slightly on the day.
Separately, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it was increasing the size
of its long-end liquidity-support buybacks starting September 9 — the
government buying back its own older bonds to support market functioning. A
4.81% risk-free yield is the number every dividend stock, bond fund, and REIT
must now be measured against.
ROI Signal 03 — Chewy beats, raises guidance, and still falls 11%
Chewy reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $3.33 billion, ahead of estimates and up
7.3% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.36 matching consensus. It raised
full-year sales guidance to $13.46–$13.57 billion. Free cash flow, however,
came in at $89.5 million, down 15.5% year over year, as capital expenditures
jumped 71.1%. The stock fell roughly 11% to $20.68 on the session, while the
S&P 500 (SPY) fell only 0.4% — a company-specific move, not a market move.

Management called the shortfall “entirely timing-related.” Analysts pointed
instead to reinvestment costs tied to the SmartPak integration and the $400
million Modern Animal veterinary acquisition.

What the Numbers Actually Say
None of these three signals, alone, tells an investor what to do. They tell
an investor what to measure. Oil at $100 raises input costs across
transportation, plastics, and consumer goods. A 4.81% Treasury yield raises the
bar every dividend and bond investment must clear to be worth the risk. And
Chewy’s session shows that a raised guide and a revenue beat mean little if the
market believes free cash flow is deteriorating.
Risk to the Return
An oil price near $100 that persists into the fourth quarter would pressure
margins at consumer and industrial companies broadly. A Treasury yield holding
above 4.75% raises financing costs for any company planning debt-funded
buybacks or acquisitions.

Today’s Measurement Point
Watch Thursday’s cash 10-year Treasury auction results and Thursday
afternoon’s after-market earnings from Oracle and Adobe — fresh catalysts for
the next edition, since neither had reported as of this writing.



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