Brent crude fell to $72 per barrel in June after the US and Iran announced a
short-lived agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market took that as a
ceiling on the conflict's supply impact. That assumption held for roughly six
weeks.



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Brent Crude Just Crossed $100. Here Is the Price Path That Got It There.
Written by Evan Brooks · September 9, 2026







The Setup

* Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel on September 9 for the first time since
July. WTI settled at$94.92. Goldman Sachs said Brent exceeding $120 is now
plausible if shipping attacks intensify.
* The US struck four Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg
Island — Iran's primary oil export hub — on September 9, per US Central
Command. Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait and the UAE in response.
* WTI gained 9% in the week ending September 3 as markets repriced Hormuz
disruption risk. The US national average diesel price hit a record$5.90 per
gallon on September 9, per AAA.
From $72 to $100: The Anatomy of a Crude Rally Nobody Fully Priced
Brent crude fell to $72 per barrel in June after the US and Iran announced a
short-lived agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market took that as a
ceiling on the conflict's supply impact. That assumption held for roughly six
weeks. When hostilities resumed in late August, traders who had sold oil on the
diplomatic signal began unwinding positions with less conviction than they had
established them — and the gap between where oil was priced and where the
physical market was tightening became visible quickly. By September 3, WTI had
recovered$19 from its June low. By September 9, Brent had crossed a round
number that carries psychological weight precisely because it is a round number.
The physical constraint driving that recovery is the Strait of Hormuz,
through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply travels in peacetime.
The strike on Kharg Island — Iran's largest oil export terminal, responsible
for approximately 90% of the country's crude exports — shifted the market's
risk distribution most sharply. An attack that damages export infrastructure is
categorically different from attacks on shipping lanes: the former disrupts
supply at the source rather than in transit, and repair timelines are measured
in weeks, not days. Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities,
described the dynamic to Bloomberg: Iran is not backing away from controlling
the Strait, which keeps the probability of further escalation elevated as the
US routes traffic through an alternative Omani corridor.





Iran bad → oil spikes → you pay more.

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Six months later, rinse and repeat.

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The Equity Spillover Markets Are Still Underweighting
Energy led the S&P 500 on September 1 — the only sector to finish higher on a
day the broader index fell0.71% to 7,631. That sector rotation is the
straightforward part of an oil shock: integrated producers, refiners, and
pipeline operators reprice upward as crude does. The less straightforward part
is the knock-on to the rate decision the Federal Reserve faces on September 16.
Fed ChairKevin Warsh noted in his August 28 Jackson Hole address that AI data
center investment is contributing to inflation through construction and memory
chip costs. He did not name oil. But the Cleveland Fed's September 8 nowcast,
which put headline CPI at3.38% for August, was built on data collected before
this week's Brent move. A sustained energy shock that feeds into September's
CPI — the number the committee carries into its December meeting — changes the
path-of-hike calculus beyond a single meeting.
The $120 Scenario and What Would Have to Hold for It to Arrive
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told
CNBC on September 9 that$120 Brent is plausible if shipping attacks intensify.
The condition that would get prices there is not simply continued hostilities —
it is hostilities that materially reduce the volume of crude successfully
transiting either the Hormuz corridor or the Omani alternative. Saudi Arabia's
decision to hold its flagship crude price unchanged for October, reported
September 3, was read by some analysts as a signal of less market tightness
than feared. That reading may be premature: Saudi pricing decisions are made on
the prior month's data, and Kharg Island was struck after that pricing was set.
The variable Goldman's scenario hinges on — whether attack volume on tankers in
the alternative route rises — has not yet resolved. What has resolved is that
the market is no longer treating the June ceasefire as a durable floor.

Sources: Bloomberg · CNBC · Reuters · CNN · Al Jazeera · Rigzone · AAA · TD
Securities · Goldman Sachs




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