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A Truth Social post, a waking yen, and a $2,500 phone — three trades
that changed seats early.

[Morning Watchlist]
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Wednesday, September 9, 2026  •  Wednesday Edition

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A Quick Note From Behind the Markets

TRUMP JUST THREATENED TO BAN A PLANEMAKER
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Three stories. Three pairings.  •  5 min read

 
We’re at the midpoint of the short week, and the market came back
from the holiday to find oil pressing toward $100, a September hike
still live on the table — and the President threatening to ban a
planemaker.

“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!” That was
Monday’s Truth Social post, published hours before Canada’s
counter-tariffs went live. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world,
Japan’s stock market just tumbled — for a reason most American
investors will skip right past. And this afternoon at 1 p.m. Eastern,
Apple’s new CEO walks onstage for the first time to unveil the most
expensive iPhone lineup ever built.

A trade war climbing into the private-jet cabin. A currency waking up
in Tokyo. A $2,500 phone.

Three stories this morning. Three pairings. Let’s get into it.

 

1)
The Trade War Reaches the Private-Jet Cabin

The scheduled part happened Tuesday at 12:01 a.m.: Canada’s
retaliatory tariffs took effect — 15% to 50% on roughly $27.6
billion of American goods, more than 700 products, steel to dairy.
We’ve been positioned for that for weeks; Commercial Metals and
Eagle Materials sit under the umbrella.

The unscheduled part came Monday night. President Trump posted that
Bombardier — the Montreal maker of Challenger and Global business
jets — should be barred from selling in America unless it builds its
planes here. His words: “If they want our Market, they must build
here.”

Now the numbers. More than half of Bombardier’s revenue comes from
American customers — call it roughly $5 BILLION of the $10.2 billion
it forecasts for this year. Its Toronto-listed stock actually rose
about 3.5% as trading resumed — the market betting this is a
negotiating tactic, not policy. Maybe so. But a business jet is a
multi-year commitment — a delivery slot, a service network, a resale
market — and buyers don’t sign multi-year commitments into a
shouting match. Even a threat moves shopping lists.

So who picks up the phone? Gulfstream — but it’s buried inside
General Dynamics, a defense conglomerate. Textron’s Cessna — our
August 31st Buy, for entirely different reasons; that call stands. But
one competitor is a nearly pure aircraft company holding something the
others don’t even need: a signed exemption from this exact trade
war.

Today’s Stock

Embraer (EMBJ) Buy

Brazil’s planemaker — ticker changed from ERJ last November —
whose Praetor and Phenom jets compete head-on with Bombardier’s
Challengers. In February, Washington exempted aircraft from the Brazil
tariffs, so Embraer sells into the U.S. at zero — and it has been
assembling those jets in Melbourne, Florida for some fifteen years.

_Trade wars are musical chairs — when the music stops, you want to
already be sitting in a chair inside the room._ Embraer bought its
chair in Florida a decade and a half ago.

And the business doesn’t need the ban to work. Backlog just hit a
record $34.5 BILLION, up 16% in a year. The latest quarter set a
revenue record with profit up 25%. Flexjet signed an order worth up to
$7 billion — the largest executive-jet deal in company history —
and Japan’s ANA added eight more E190-E2 airliners last week. At
Friday’s close of $73.81, that’s a $13.2 billion company at about
20 times next year’s expected earnings. The S&P 500: 21. Fifteen
analysts rate it Strong Buy, average target near $90; JPMorgan says
$104.

The honest risks: a social media post is not policy — a Republican
senator pushed back within hours — and if the ban evaporates,
Bombardier keeps selling. Fine. We’re not buying the ban; the record
backlog is the thesis and the ban is a free option. The bigger worry
is the tariff guns swinging back toward Brazil, as they did once
before February’s exemption — and business jets are a cyclical
business having a very good year.

Read the full Embraer write-up →
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Securities Act, which requires us to disclose any compensation
received or expected to be received in cash or in kind in connection
with the purchase or sale of any security.

This is a paid advertisement for Draganfly (NASDAQ: DPRO | CSE: DPRO).
Behind the Markets will receive compensation from i2i Marketing Group,
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security. Investors should conduct their own independent research and
consult a qualified financial professional before investing.

This disclosure is made as of 09/09/2026.

 

2)
The Other Central Bank Cleared Its Throat

While the crowd counts Fed hike odds — futures still say about 60%
for next week — the week’s most interesting central-bank story is
nine time zones away.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1,130 points, about 1.7%, and the
yen surged to 153 against the dollar — ITS STRONGEST LEVEL SINCE
FEBRUARY. The trigger: Japanese real wages rose 2.4% in July, the
biggest jump in five years, and second-quarter growth was revised up.
Traders now widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.25% at
its September 17–18 meeting — which starts the day after the
Fed’s ends. Two central banks, back to back, both leaning the same
direction for once.

For thirty years, “Japan” and “rising rates” didn’t belong
in the same sentence. When that changes, money that borrowed cheap yen
to buy everything else starts coming home, and the yen climbs. So who
in America gets paid when the yen gets a raise? The duck does.

Today’s Stock

Aflac (AFL) Watch

Aflac sells supplemental insurance, and the majority of its profit is
earned in Japan — in yen — then reported to you in dollars. Like
owning a rental property overseas: when the local currency climbs, the
rent check grows in translation, and you didn’t lift a finger.

Last quarter the yen averaged 159 to the dollar, about 9% weaker than
a year earlier, and that alone shaved a nickel per share off earnings
— strip out the currency and profits actually grew. Japan’s
margins are running at 34%. At 153 and climbing, the headwind starts
running the other way. At Friday’s close of $117, Aflac is a $63
billion company at about 17 times this year’s expected earnings —
under the S&P’s 21 — that returned $1.3 billion to shareholders
last quarter and has raised its dividend every year for more than four
decades.

So why Watch and not Buy? Because the currency has to actually
deliver. Fifteen analysts rate it a Hold with an average target
sitting at the price. Japan premiums are still shrinking about 4% a
year. And if the Fed hikes hard while the BoJ blinks, the yen slides
right back toward 160 and the raise gets revoked. Our entrance: the
BoJ delivers next week and the yen holds — or any pullback toward
$110 while we wait.

See the full Aflac breakdown →
[[link removed]]


 

Sponsored by The Oxford Club

Anthropic Just Hit $65 Billion… But There May Be a Way In Before the
IPO [[link removed]]

Anthropic’s annualized revenue reportedly surged to $65 BILLION —
up from $47 billion in May and roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025.

That kind of growth has Wall Street paying attention.

And with Anthropic reportedly preparing for an IPO, investors may soon
be hearing its name everywhere.

But YOU MAY NOT HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE OPENING BELL.

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist of The Oxford Club, says
he’s tracking a PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE INVESTMENT VEHICLE WITH
ANTHROPIC AS ITS LARGEST POSITION — one that can reportedly be
purchased through a brokerage with just a few hundred dollars.

And Anthropic isn’t the only name inside.

The vehicle also holds stakes in DATABRICKS AND ANDURIL, giving
investors exposure to several major players in the next generation of
AI and technology.

With SEPTEMBER 29 approaching, Green believes this setup deserves a
closer look before Anthropic potentially moves into an even brighter
spotlight.

Watch the FREE briefing → [[link removed]]

 

 

3)
A $2,500 Phone Needs a Bodyguard

This afternoon, John Ternus hosts his first product launch as
Apple’s CEO — the “Surprise and Shine” event. The expected
menu: a folding iPhone Ultra starting somewhere between $2,000 and
$2,500, iPhone 18 Pro models $100 to $300 pricier than last year, and
the cheap standard model pushed to next spring. Read that lineup again
— it’s a price hike dressed as a keynote.

We already own the sound of this story: CIRRUS LOGIC, OUR SEPTEMBER
2ND BUY, ships the audio chips in whatever gets announced today —
that call is unchanged, and today is its exam. But there’s a second
quiet winner, and it works no matter whose chips are inside.

Nobody buys a protection plan for a $40 flip phone. Everybody thinks
twice about carrying a $2,500 folding computer in a back pocket
uninsured. _The more expensive the china, the more you pay the movers
to bubble-wrap it._

Today’s Stock

Assurant (AIZ) Buy

The company behind the curtain of device protection: add insurance to
your phone through a major carrier and there’s a good chance
Assurant writes it. It runs the trade-in machinery too — $1.63
billion of trade-in value handed to consumers in the first quarter
alone.

Premiums scale with the price tag, and an upgrade supercycle feeds the
trade-in mill from both ends. The second quarter set a record and
management raised full-year guidance. At Friday’s close of $285.74,
it’s a $14.1 billion company at about 13.5 TIMES EARNINGS. The S&P
500: 21.

The honest risks: Apple’s own AppleCare competes for the same
worried thumbs. The stock is up 33% in a year and sits about 6% below
its high, so we’re not early. And September is the peak of hurricane
season — Assurant’s housing arm insures against exactly that, and
one bad storm month can bruise a quarter.

Get the full Assurant update →
[[link removed]]


 

Sponsored by American Power Gen

The AI Era Is Laying Its Railroads Right Now
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Cornelius Vanderbilt never manufactured a single thing that rode on
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That is the quiet lesson of every technology boom. The most durable
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cannot function without.

In the AI era, that infrastructure is electricity. Global AI spending
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center demand in 2024 to more than 80 gigawatts by 2030.

American PowerGen is developing it: a 22 gigawatt pipeline of natural
gas generation in Texas
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Land secured across multiple ERCOT zones. Natural gas supply arranged.
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Before You Go

That’s the watchlist. A planemaker already sitting inside the
border, an insurer already paid in the currency that’s rising, and
the company already attached to the price tag that’s going up. One
theme: _when the rules change, own whoever changed seats early._

Housekeeping: tomorrow night Oracle reports, with options pricing
roughly an 11% move — Powell Industries is listening. And the
inflation gauntlet runs to the wire: PPI tomorrow morning, CPI Friday
at 8:30 — the last numbers before the Fed decides Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the Bank of Japan right behind it.

We’ll see you tomorrow.

Read this morning’s full issue →
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