Dear Reader,

Recently, America's national debt hit a new all-time high: $40.07 trillion.₁

It's been growing by several billion per day.

Not over a year. Not over a month. In one day.

Washington has added trillions to that number in just the past few years, and there's no plan on the table that meaningfully slows it down.

Here's why that matters to you, personally: every dollar of that debt eventually gets paid for somehow — through higher taxes, higher interest rates, or a dollar that buys less than it used to.

Investors used to treat the debt clock as background noise. That's changing.

More are now asking a simple question: if Washington can't stop borrowing, what happens to the value of the money I've saved?

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Washington keeps borrowing. The only question is whether your savings are protected either way.

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Here's to taking control of what you've built.

P.S. $40 trillion and climbing. By the time you read this, it's already higher. Claim your free guide before September 31st.

Sources:

1 U.S. national debt hits $39.39 trillion: https://www.usdebtclock.org

Why China’s Memory Chip Breakthrough Won't Crash the Market

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 9/3/2026.

Investors watching the semiconductor sector are seeing headlines about China's latest breakthroughs in memory chips. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) recently began small-batch production of high-bandwidth memory and plans to mass-produce LPDDR6 silicon later this year.

At first glance, a localized Chinese supply chain producing some of the most constrained, high-margin components in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware stack appears to be a devastating blow to Western memory giants. However, while domestic Chinese production represents a notable geopolitical shift, the sheer volume of global demand makes this new supply unlikely to trigger near-term margin compression for established market leaders. The structural shift from a cyclical commodity environment to a multiyear supply squeeze means legacy manufacturers remain highly insulated. Recent sell-offs offer an intriguing potential mispricing, as the world's demand for computing power dramatically outpaces any single region's ability to manufacture it.

AI's Endless Thirst for Wafer Capacity

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The semiconductor market has moved further away from its historical boom-and-bust commodity cycle. In the past, localized supply injections from state-backed competitors could flood the market, weaken pricing power and compress margins.

Today, the physical infrastructure required to support generative artificial intelligence changes the equation entirely. Developing advanced AI hardware requires approximately three times as much wafer capacity per chip as traditional dynamic random-access memory.

This dynamic creates a severe macro-level supply deficit. ChangXin Memory Technologies' achievement in LPDDR6 production and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) development is an impressive engineering feat that narrows part of China's technology gap, but it cannot bridge a global shortfall measured in millions of wafers.

The market is currently operating at absolute capacity. For the next several years, the primary constraint will not be finding buyers but securing enough cleanroom space and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines to fulfill existing orders. Global demand for data processing is growing at a rate that completely dwarfs regional supply victories.

Why Micron Ignores Demand Destruction

When evaluating the immediate threat to Western suppliers, analyzing the order book provides more clarity than watching daily price action. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is a prime example of a business well insulated from near-term demand destruction. Micron Technology has experienced a pullback of more than 20% from its 52-week high, yet its underlying business fundamentals reflect absolute scarcity.

Micron Technology's high-bandwidth memory capacity, including its upcoming next-generation HBM4 architecture, is fully sold out through calendar 2026. These are not loose memorandums of understanding; they are binding, take-or-pay contracts. Forward pricing and volume are already secured through noncancelable strategic agreements. This locked-in revenue pipeline provides unprecedented visibility, effectively insulating Micron Technology's projected gross margins from demand destruction in Asian markets.

Micron Technology currently boasts an impressive trailing 12-month net margin of around 55%. Even if Chinese smartphone manufacturers immediately transition to localized LPDDR6 for domestic handsets, Micron Technology does not have excess capacity sitting idle. Every wafer that rolls off its production lines is already spoken for by hyperscale data centers and major hardware developers building the next generation of computing clusters.

Western Digital's Brilliant Enterprise Pivot

A similar fundamental disconnect is visible with Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC). Shares of Western Digital have dropped over 10% in recent weeks, with some investors pointing to insider sales as a sign of low confidence among executives. A broader view reveals a business that has aggressively restructured its operating model to capture the inelastic demand of the AI era. Western Digital has successfully pivoted away from the hypercompetitive consumer electronics sector. Today, enterprise and cloud operations account for nearly 89% of total revenue, leaving only a fraction exposed to volatile consumer segments.

Against this backdrop, recent insider distributions at the executive level appear more consistent with standard portfolio rebalancing than with concerns about forward guidance. More importantly, Western Digital's enterprise hard disk drive capacity is largely allocated for calendar 2026, and management has executed long-term agreements with major cloud customers extending into 2028 and 2029.

This multiyear runway helps ensure that Western Digital's core revenue engine remains insulated from the volatility of the consumer-grade flash market, which localized Chinese production might theoretically disrupt. Data centers need physical storage at an unprecedented scale to house AI training data, and Western Digital still holds a critical position in that layer of the physical infrastructure.

Peak-Cycle Pricing Meets Compressed Multiples

The current pricing environment creates a fascinating setup for fundamental analysts. Both Micron Technology and Western Digital are generating unusually strong profitability. Western Digital recently posted anomalous trailing net margins nearing 73%, while Micron Technology has reached similar high-water marks. Yet, forward valuations remain surprisingly compressed. Micron Technology trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 13, while Western Digital sits around 23.

Investors often view the heavy capital expenditures required to fund next-generation fabrication plants as a long-term liability. In reality, the current cash outlays are a prerequisite for executing enterprise orders already supported by customer commitments and visible demand.

Building out the infrastructure required to produce high-bandwidth memory at scale requires substantial upfront investment. That investment serves as a natural economic moat against new entrants attempting to flood the market with cheap silicon. While China's localized supply chain victories will eventually absorb a portion of domestic smartphone demand, the global AI infrastructure buildout gives peak-cycle pricing a stronger foundation than it would have in a normal memory upcycle. The industry's structural supply constraints are too vast for a single regional competitor to dismantle.

Capitalizing on Geopolitical Mispricing

Investors observing recent sell-offs in legacy memory manufacturers might view the pullback as a mispricing driven by geopolitical headlines rather than deteriorating fundamentals. With capacity tight for years and profit margins supported by long-term customer commitments, the underlying businesses are operating from a position of considerable strength.

Those with a long-term horizon may want to add Micron Technology to their watchlists, as its forward valuation has compressed despite a much clearer revenue pipeline. Alternatively, cautious investors might wait for the broader market to absorb the reality of the artificial intelligence supply deficit before taking a position in enterprise-focused storage leaders such as Western Digital.

Recognizing the difference between a temporary headline shock and a structural shift in supply and demand is often where the most reliable market opportunities emerge. Keeping a close eye on these high-visibility revenue streams will provide a much clearer picture of future performance than reacting to overseas production announcements.

Oura’s $16 Billion IPO Could Put a New Price on Wearable Tech

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 8/26/2026.

The wearable technology space is quietly undergoing a structural shift. Forecasts project that the global wearables market will surpass $100 billion in 2026 and reach roughly $230 billion by 2033. Investors seeking the next wave of hardware capitalization are closely watching Oura Health.

Oura is reportedly preparing to seek up to $3 billion in a U.S. public offering at a valuation approaching $16 billion. This potential debut could provide an important price-discovery mechanism for pure-play wearable health-data platforms.

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Rather than simply representing another tech IPO, Oura's targeted pricing could challenge Wall Street's valuation of established health-tracking platforms. By isolating the premium associated with health-data aggregation and recurring subscriptions, the offering could prompt investors to reassess the value of wearable divisions within legacy tech giants.

Moving Beyond Basic Hardware Margins

Oura's potential $16 billion-plus valuation does not emerge in a vacuum. Oura Health is projected to reach approximately $2 billion in sales in 2026, implying an estimated 8x forward-revenue multiple at a $16 billion valuation. In the hardware space, achieving that kind of multiple requires more than moving physical units through a supply chain. It relies heavily on high-margin, recurring software subscriptions closely tied to physical devices.

A standalone hardware business traditionally trades at a steep discount because of manufacturing costs, supply-chain vulnerabilities and margin compression. Oura operates differently by positioning itself as a pure-play health platform. Users pay upfront for the physical ring, but the value proposition extends to the ongoing data processing, sleep tracking and personalized biometric insights provided through its monthly subscription.

By converting a one-time hardware purchase into a recurring revenue stream, pure-play trackers can create more predictable revenue and improve the economics of the hardware relationship over time. This predictable cash flow can also make the model more attractive to institutional buyers. If institutional markets validate Oura's proposed premium, the offering could establish a distinct benchmark and suggest that investors are willing to assign software-like multiples to hardware companies when their underlying health-data ecosystems are robust enough to generate recurring revenue.

Heavyweights in the Corner: Obscured Value in Big Tech Wearables

This pricing event creates an interesting dynamic for established tech ecosystems. Currently, technology sector companies like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) compete in wearables through products including the Apple Watch, Pixel Watch and Fitbit.

Consider Apple's recent performance. Apple's Wearables, Home and Accessories segment posted about $7.88 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, representing a solid 6.5% year-over-year increase. Despite generating billions in revenue, Apple does not break out Apple Watch sales separately, making it difficult to isolate the wearable business from the broader category.

Because the Apple Watch primarily serves as an ecosystem anchor designed to keep users connected to the iPhone, iCloud and Apple Fitness+, Wall Street rarely assigns it a standalone multiple. The wearable's true value is obscured by its role as a supplementary driver of high-margin services.

Alphabet faces a similar structural dynamic. Alphabet recently rolled out its screenless Fitbit Air alongside the Pixel Watch 5, further integrating the Fitbit brand into the Google Health ecosystem. Fitbit Air also places Google more directly in the growing market for screenless health trackers occupied by companies such as Oura and Whoop. However, Alphabet does not separately disclose the financial contribution of its health-tracking products from its broader hardware operations.

For both Apple and Alphabet, wearables remain relatively small pieces of much larger businesses. Apple's valuation is driven heavily by the iPhone ecosystem and Services, while Alphabet's rests largely on advertising, cloud computing and its growing AI opportunity. As a result, the value of wearables can remain obscured within their broader corporate structures.

Institutional Capital Steps Into the Ring

Institutional capital remains heavily concentrated in diversified technology, largely influenced by the ongoing generative AI boom. Alphabet's recent multibillion-dollar custom AI chip deal with Marvell and Apple's reported $1 billion annual outlay for Alphabet's Gemini AI underscore a strategic pivot toward computing power.

Berkshire Hathaway recently boosted its Alphabet stake by 83% to nearly $37.8 billion while retaining a substantial position in Apple. Insiders at both Apple and Alphabet have also recorded recent share sales.

The upcoming Oura IPO will test whether institutional liquidity is prepared to support a targeted wearable-hardware pure-play. If Oura successfully secures its $3 billion offering at a valuation exceeding $16 billion, it will send a meaningful signal that institutional investors have an appetite for specialized health-data platforms.

This dynamic creates a compelling narrative for the physical economy of tech. While software and language models dominate headlines, collecting biological data requires physical hardware. Companies that can bridge the gap between physical data collection and recurring software revenue may be better positioned to command premium multiples.

Such a scenario could put pressure on Apple and Alphabet. When a pure-play competitor achieves a high valuation multiple, investors naturally begin asking what a legacy tech company's internal division would be worth on the open market. While a spinoff of the Apple Watch or Google Pixel Watch is highly unlikely given their tight integration with broader operating systems, Oura's valuation could give analysts another reference point for assessing the embedded value of these businesses.

The Next Era of Health Tracking

The wearable-tech sector is entering a mature phase in which health-data aggregation commands a significant premium over basic step tracking. Oura Health's aggressive capitalization strategy highlights the immense value locked inside these data-driven platforms. While Apple and Alphabet continue to lead by sheer volume, their sprawling business models obscure the true multiple their wearable divisions could command on a standalone basis.

As the wearables market scales past the $100 billion mark this year, the focus will increasingly shift toward margin expansion through subscription software and pure-play health metrics. The potential Oura IPO provides a useful lens for pricing this industry shift and testing how much public-market investors are willing to pay for a standalone wearable health platform.

Investors navigating this space may want to add Oura to their IPO watchlists to gauge broader market sentiment for health hardware. At the same time, those with long-term exposure to Apple or Alphabet could monitor how these tech giants evolve their wearable products and services as specialized competitors attract higher valuations.