Hi, I'm Dylan Jovine — I just returned from a private dinner in Palm Beach. The
kind where phones get collected at the door. We brought the cameras anyway. One
conversation The people in that room are already positioned. Now you can be too.



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What happened in Palm Beach stays in Palm Beach → click here
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Hi, I'm Dylan Jovine —

I just returned from a private dinner in Palm Beach.

The kind where phones get collected at the door.

We brought the cameras anyway.

<[link removed]>
One conversation

The people in that room are already positioned.

Now you can be too.

See what I discovered before Wall Street catches on
<[link removed]>
 

 


Today's Market Update For You
The ECB Is Expected to Deliver a 25 Basis Point "Insurance Hike" to 2.50%
Thursday — J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas Both Added a December Hike Call Last
Week — and President Lagarde's Guidance Will Set EUR/USD's Range Going Into
Friday's US CPI
The European Central Bank's Governing Council meets Thursday with a 25 basis
point rate hike to a deposit rate of2.50% fully priced by swap markets at 99.2%
probability — a move that has been characterized by ING's global head of macro
Carsten Brzeski as "another insurance rate hike" and, in a framing that
captures the ECB's communication challenge, as "a dovish rate hike." The label
is not contradictory. The ECB is raising rates primarily because eurozone
headline inflation accelerated to3.3% in August — the highest since September
2023 — driven by an energy component that rose 14.3% year over year as the
Hormuz disruption compressed European natural gas supply further than crude oil
alone would imply. Core inflation, by contrast, eased to2.4% and services
inflation fell to3.0%, establishing that the domestic underlying pressure is
not independently generating the headline reading. A central bank hiking rates
primarily to insulate expectations against an energy supply shock, while core
is falling, is technically tightening while operationally managing credibility
— a distinction that determines what Lagarde says about December.

The guidance question is the more consequential element of Thursday's
decision. J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas both revised their ECB outlooks last
week, each adding a December hike call that they had not previously held,
citing "the persistence of the energy shock and the resilience of the economy"
as making second-round inflation effects more likely. Ebury'sMatthew Ryan
pushed back directly, calling markets' pricing of a3% terminal rate by 2027
"excessive," arguing that any further hikes beyond September would push rates
into restrictive territory given growth risks and the supply-side origin of the
inflation. The ECB's updated staff projections Thursday — which are likely to
revise 2026 headline inflation higher on a higher energy price path assumption
— will frame how Lagarde's press conference is read. A signal that September
completes the hiking cycle confirms Brzeski's "dovish hike" framing and
supports the euro. A signal that December remains live validates J.P. Morgan
and BNP, extends the EUR rate repricing, and arrives the day before the US CPI
print in a currency market already grappling with the dollar's post-NFP
strengthening.
ECB Thursday — The Decision and What It Signals


September Hike Probability99.2% (LSEG)+25bps to 2.50%; fully priced — the
surprise would be a hold, not the hike
December Hike (New Calls)J.P. Morgan + BNPBoth reversed prior no-hike calls
last week; cited energy persistence + growth resilience

Carsten Brzeski, ING"Another insurance rate hike — or for those who don't like
this term: a dovish rate hike"Policymakers have little appetite to signal
further rate increases beyond September
Matthew Ryan, Ebury"Pricing of 3% terminal rate excessive — further hikes
would push into restrictive territory"Supply-side inflation origin limits the
case for aggressive tightening into growth risk
Lagarde's Guidance — Two Scenarios and EUR/USD Impact

September Is the Cycle Peak (Dovish) December Remains Live (Hawkish)

Core at 2.4% and falling — domestic inflation does not justify further
tighteningEnergy at 14.3% YoY with Hormuz unresolved — second-round effects not
yet visible but risk is real
Eurozone PMI manufacturing at 52.7 (4-year high) — growth does not need
additional restrictionStaff projections revise headline higher — ECB would be
implicitly accepting above-target inflation if it stops at 2.5%
EUR rallies on terminal rate confirmation — removes forward uncertainty premium
EUR/USD volatile Thursday → Friday — ECB guidance and US CPI within 18 hours of
each other
GBP/USD range: 1.3350–1.3650; EUR/USD direction Thursday sets the pre-CPI base
Two simultaneous central bank tightening cycles in the same week amplifies
global rate repricing
The ECB hike is already priced — the surprise in either direction comes from
Lagarde's December guidance, not the September decision itself.
The structural asymmetry in Thursday's ECB decision is that the market
already owns the hike but does not own the guidance. A clean "insurance hike +
pause" signal from Lagarde delivers essentially no new information to EUR/USD,
which has priced both the September move and a high probability of December
since the J.P. Morgan and BNP calls last week. A guidance surprise in the
hawkish direction — language that makes December more than a tail risk — would
add to EUR rate expectations at the precise moment the dollar is digesting a
strong NFP and approaching a hot headline CPI the following day. That
confluence — a hawkish ECB on Thursday, a hot CPI headline on Friday, Fed
purdah in effect from Saturday through September17 — represents the most
condensed global central bank tightening signal in a single week since the
synchronized hiking cycles of 2022. The rate market's current pricing of57
basis points of Fed tightening through June2027 was built against the backdrop
of the NFP alone; if the ECB signals December and the CPI confirms the
headline, that forward curve is likely to reprice materially higher.

Sources: Reuters · MarketScreener · ING · Investing.com · Cambridge Currencies

 


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