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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Sept. 9, 2020

Vaccine Stumble in Britain Demonstrates
Impossibility of Rushing the Process
Plus, putting servicemembers in the payroll tax squeeze

 

AstraZeneca's vaccine setback is routine, and it's also why we're a ways
off from approval. (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via AP)

First Response

My feature for the next issue of the Prospect is about what's going to
happen this winter. The period after the election and before the next
inauguration will be one of the most harrowing in American history. As
Gregg Gonsalves summed up, "This could be the 1918 flu meeting the
Great Depression meeting a right-wing revolution... It'll already be a
bad situation this winter even if things go well politically. But if
we're not going to see any leadership, we're walking into a wall of
fire." You can read the story here
.

One of the most intriguing elements of the winter months will be the
situation with a vaccine, which if it comes will require the largest
logistical project in history
,
in the middle of the political and economic maelstrom. Not ideal! I've
already emptied some of my notebook on the mechanics of the vaccine, but
we got a little more information yesterday on its arrival, and the
unavoidable political context around it.

First off, there's the bad news: AstraZeneca and the University of
Oxford's Phase 3 trial has been put on hold

due to one of the participants getting sick after receiving the vaccine.
The company described stopping trials in these instances as routine
, which
explains why it will be so difficult to get a vaccine quickly, even if
nine are currently at the final stage
.

The final stage is everything, there aren't many shortcuts available
to take, and one unexplained illness or some other hiccup can disrupt
the process, adding weeks to the process. Even if this subject is sick
for reasons unrelated to the vaccine-which is entirely possible and
even likely-pausing the study means delaying the second dose needed
for the vaccine, as well as the timeline for data on its efficacy.

Read all of our Unsanitized reports here

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Donald Trump is treating vaccine approval like a product launch for
sweeps week, and this misstep on AstraZeneca damages the possibility of
an October surprise, which was already exceedingly low. The nine
companies involved in Phase 3 trials released this pledge

yesterday, which sounded a lot more high-minded than it was. The pledge
mostly defers to the FDA's existing guidance and criteria for vaccine
development, and stated that they would "only submit for approval or
emergency use authorization (emphasis mine) after demonstrating safety
and efficacy through a Phase 3 clinical study." An EUA would be an
attempt to accelerate the process before the trial is complete. This was
a PR maneuver to shore up public confidence.

The FDA is also leaking details

about how it's untainted by political decision-making, promising to
adhere to the science. The assurances about not cutting corners are
worth about as much as FDA administrator Stephen Hahn received from
Twitter for this tweet
,
in other words nothing.

Joe Biden has asked for transparency

on the decision-making, Every expert has told me honesty and openness
are absolutely critical to public acceptance. Biden wants the raw
testing data made available to outside scientists, and I doubt that will
happen. But every hint of politicization in the approval is a gift to
the anti-vaxx movement and a knife wound in the future of public health.

In the feature I detail the 1976 swine flu vaccine, which was rushed to
the public before the election, with Gerald Ford himself getting a shot
in October. It turned out that the swine flu outbreak at Fort Dix was
minimal and not deadly, and the vaccine paralyzed hundreds of people.
The notion of flu shots didn't recover in the public consciousness for
years. Playing politics with these things is super-dangerous.

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Support the Troops

We already knew that federal employees would be getting the payroll tax
deferral, announced by Trump in an executive action. What we learned
yesterday is that you can include the military in that group. A bulletin
sent out to all
servicemembers and military personnel yesterday informs them that
they'll be getting a little more in their paychecks for the rest of
the calendar year, with the 6.2 percent employee-side payroll tax waived
temporarily. Nobody, the bulletin states, can opt out.

It also says something interesting. As we know, the deferral until
December will lead to collection from January-April 2021. "If a
military member or civilian employee separates or retires in 2020 before
the Social Security tax can be collected in 2021, they are still
responsible for the Social Security tax repayment," according to the
bulletin. That is not my reading of the IRS guidance
, which lists the
"Affected Taxpayer" as the employer.

In other words, the employer is on the hook. So if an employee works
until the end of the year and then retires or quits, the employer has to
find the money somewhere to pay back those deferred taxes. That's why
most employers won't defer the taxes, there's too much needless
risk. But the military guidance puts it on the individual as "still
responsible" for repayment, even if they separate. What does this
mean? Will the military send debt collectors after honorably discharged
veterans? Will they garnish other benefits? For a president already in
trouble over what he's allegedly said about members of the military,
what he's setting up to do to them is even more damaging.

The warning also reinforces the ridiculous nature of the entire payroll
tax deferral. It's a tax cut you can't spend. Either you are
cautious enough to know that you have to pay later, and you hoard the
extra cash, eliminating any stimulative effect; or you don't think
about it, spend it, and go into debt later. Both scenarios are bad for
the public and bad for the economy in the long run.

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Today I Learned

* Yes, I know about the stupid Senate bill that won't become law, they
vote tomorrow and I'll have more then. Here's the bill text