[1]Swing Left Must Hold DistrictsSwing Left
Hi John,
Swing Left recently announced that we’re expanding our 2026 target map to
include 6 new U.S. House districts in our “Must-Flip” and “Must-Hold”
categories.
Today, we’re taking a closer look at the 3 newly added Florida U.S. House
seats that are absolutely imperative to protect this fall.
Earlier this year, Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida Republicans rammed
through an aggressive mid-decade gerrymander designed to wipe out
Democratic representation and protect Republicans’ razor-thin majority in
the U.S. House.
To pull off this power grab, Republicans specifically redrew the districts
of three Democratic incumbents in Central Florida, the Tampa Bay region,
and South Florida. But their strategy has a major vulnerability: Trump’s
2024 performance in these newly drawn districts overstates how Republican
they actually are.
With Trump’s popularity dropping across the state, these three incumbents
are uniquely positioned to hold their seats and defeat the GOP's
gerrymander.
Florida’s 9th Congressional District: Representative Darren Soto
Republicans redrew Florida’s 9th Congressional District, making the new
seat one that Trump would have won by 18% in 2024. But, if the newly drawn
district boundaries had been in place for the 2020 presidential election,
Trump would’ve won this district by just 6.8%. Florida’s 9th is also
nearly one-third Hispanic—a key constituency swinging back to Democrats
after seeing the impact of Republican policies.
Democratic Representative Darren Soto is a high-performing incumbent who
consistently outperforms top-of-the-ticket Democrats by delivering results
for Central Florida, from securing disaster relief to fighting for lower
healthcare costs to banning congressional stock trading.
His challenger, Republican Dan Green, is a multimillionaire rubber-stamp
for D.C. elites who supports tariff hikes that raise homebuilding costs
and healthcare cuts that threaten coverage for over 1.6 million
Floridians.
Florida’s 14th Congressional District: Representative Kathy Castor
GOP mapmakers reshaped Tampa Bay, making this district one that Trump
would have won by 10.5% in 2024, but again, if the newly drawn district
boundaries had been in place for the 2020 presidential election, the
margin would have been a razor-thin 2.8%. Independent analyst Cook
Political Report currently rates this race as a Toss-Up.
Democratic Representative Kathy Castor is a deeply trusted leader who has
spent her career lowering costs for Tampa families, fighting utility
monopolies, and securing billions in federal infrastructure investments.
In comparison, her opponent, Republican Mike Beltran, is an extreme
conservative who voted against state affordable housing packages,
supported a near-total abortion ban, and backs national policies that are
estimated to add thousands to the average family's annual budget.
Florida’s 25th Congressional District: Representative Jared Moskowitz
Republicans redrew this seat to make it more Republican-leaning, but with
these new lines, Joe Biden would have won this district by 5.1% in 2020.
Independent analyst Cook Political Report currently rates this race as a
Toss-Up.
Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz is a pragmatic problem-solver
who has recovered nearly $25 million for local taxpayers and introduced
legislation to curb soaring property insurance rates.
His opponent, Scott Singer, is a wealthy former mayor who supports
healthcare cuts and tariffs that crush South Florida seniors and working
families.
How You Can Help
Republicans rigged Florida maps because they know they can’t win on the
issues alone. But these races are still winnable. Gerrymandered maps can’t
stop Floridians from turning out in force in these three districts and
making their voices heard at the ballot box.
By organizing early and funding ground operations in Florida’s 9th,
Florida’s 14th, and Florida’s 25th, we can protect these Democratic
incumbents, fight back against Republicans’ efforts to lock in power they
couldn’t win under fair maps, and pave the way to a Democratic House
majority.
That’s why we need to scale up Ground Truth, our innovative,
people-powered deep canvassing program in Florida and in swing districts
across the country, to listen, understand what voters truly care about,
and make that information available to Democrats to build winning
campaigns.
Getting volunteers on the ground and across the country will take
resources. [ [link removed] ]Will you donate $25 to support Ground Truth
and defend critical House races across the country?
[ [link removed] ]Donate $25 Now
Thank you for being part of this work.
— The Swing Left Team
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