Sept. 2, 2026
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Don’t Worry, Mr. President, Polls Aren’t Everything. But You Already Knew That.
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“THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE!” That was President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Aug. 30, suggesting the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could be looking at television and radio over-the-air licenses for stations that publish what the President is calling “fake polls”. President Trump is certainly no stranger to bad polling understating his support. Just in 2024, the RealClearPolling.com average prior to the presidential election had the national popular vote at 48.7 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris and 48.6 percent for Trump, with support for Harris overstated by about 0.4 percent and Trump was understated by about 1.2 percent. Instead, President Trump won the popular vote — the first Republican to do so since 2004 — 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. The polls were off by a net 1.6 percent. Similarly, all of the swing state polls understated Trump’s support in Michigan by a net 1.9 percent, in Wisconsin by a net 1.3 percent and in Pennsylvania by a net 1.3 percent. North Carolina polls had Trump up 1.2 points, but he won by 3.3 points. Georgia polls had Trump up 1.3 points, but he won by 2.2. points. Nevada polls had him up by 0.6 points, but he won by 3.1 points. And Arizona had him up 2.8 points, but he won by 5.5 points. And the same thing happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led the polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but Trump ended up winning all three and the Electoral College. It’s not just President Trump who the polls got wrong. In 2018, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis was trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum by 3.6 percentage points in the polls during the campaign, but ended up winning the race by 49.6 percent to 49.2 percent — the polls were off by a whopping 4 points. It happens. And that was during a blue wave Congressional midterm year where Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives. It wasn’t a great year for Republicans in the House, but they did manage to pick up four Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota while dropping two in Arizona and Nevada. The approval ratings weren’t great for Trump in 2018, either, very similar to today, but with fierce campaigning by the President, Republicans in statewide races did far better than expected — and it could happen again. So, don’t worry, Mr. President. Polls aren’t everything — but you already knew that.
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Poll: President Trump’s Approval Improved After Victories on Crime, Immigration And Manufacturing
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President Donald Trump’s net approval rating — while still underwater — marginally increased over the month of August, as the administration is finally receiving credit for a number of victories, including an expanding U.S. manufacturing sector, a continued deportation push, and plummeting crime numbers across major cities. The latest Napolitan News Service-RMG Research presidential approval tracker shows a decline in President Trump’s disapproval rating and an increase in his approval rating over the month of August. President Trump’s net approval rating has gone from -12 points (55 percent disapprove to 43 percent approve) for the data collected Jul. 27–Aug. 2, to -7 points (52 percent disapprove to 45 percent approve) for the data collected Aug. 24–30. This represents a five-point decline in net disapproval over the past month. The recent decline in net disapproval shows one of the strongest signals for President Trump’s approval rating since March, or since the Iran conflict began. The week of March 30–April 6, 2026, one month into the conflict with Iran, President Trump’s disapproval rating peaked, with his net approval rating hitting -18 points (58 percent disapprove to 40 percent approve). While his disapproval rating declined somewhat over the following months, hovering between 53 percent and 58 percent, his approval rating remained in the low 40s for much of the past four months. However, that approval rating is finally beginning to recover. In the latest Aug. 24–30 survey data, President Trump’s approval rating has risen to 45 percent, the highest it has been since April.
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Don’t Worry, Mr. President, Polls Aren’t Everything. But You Already Knew That.
By Robert Romano
“THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE!”
That was President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Aug. 30, suggesting the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could be looking at television and radio over-the-air licenses for stations that publish what the President is calling “fake polls”.
President Trump is certainly no stranger to bad polling understating his support. Just in 2024, the RealClearPolling.com average prior to the presidential election had the national popular vote at 48.7 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris and 48.6 percent for Trump, with support for Harris overstated by about 0.4 percent and Trump was understated by about 1.2 percent.
Instead, President Trump won the popular vote — the first Republican to do so since 2004 — 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. The polls were off by a net 1.6 percent.
Similarly, all of the swing state polls understated Trump’s support.
The average of polls in Michigan had Harris up by 0.5 percent, but she lost to Trump 49.7 percent to 48.3 percent—the polls there were off by a net 1.9 percent.
The average of polls in Wisconsin similarly had Harris up by 0.4 percent, but she lost to Trump 49.6 percent to 48.7 percent—the polls there were off by a net 1.3 percent.
The average of polls in Pennsylvania did show Trump up by 0.4 percent, but he defeated Harris 50.4 percent to 48.7 percent—the polls there were again off by a net 1.3 percent.
North Carolina polls had Trump up 1.2 points, but he won by 3.3 points. Georgia polls had Trump up 1.3 points, but he won by 2.2. points. Nevada polls had him up by 0.6 points, but he won by 3.1 points. And Arizona had him up 2.8 points, but he won by 5.5 points.
And the same thing happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led the polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but Trump ended up winning all three and the Electoral College.
It’s not just President Trump who the polls got wrong. In 2018, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis was trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum by 3.6 percentage points in the polls during the campaign, but ended up winning the race by 49.6 percent to 49.2 percent — the polls were off by a whopping 4 points. It happens.
And that was during a blue wave Congressional midterm year where Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives. It wasn’t a great year for Republicans in the House, but they did manage to pick up four Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota while dropping two in Arizona and Nevada.
That is to say, with President Trump in the White House in 2018, the House went about as well (or not) as expected for the White House incumbent party — but Republicans who Trump campaigned with overperformed in statewide elections.
One exception might be Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. In 2018, which was closer than expected, there wasn’t a single poll that showed Beto O’Rourke ahead of Cruz, which said Cruz was leading 51 percent to 44 percent but the final result was 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent. As it turns out, Cruz’ margin of victory was overstated by 4.2 points. Remember, O'Rourke surprised everyone in 2018 with how close it was.
So, sometimes, polls can overstate both Republicans and Democrats—in the same year.
All of which is something to keep in mind as we review polling hotly contested Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine and Alaska — sometimes you think it’s going to go one way or be close, and then the opposite happens.
Certainly, Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is locked in a tough race with James Talarico, with the Democrat surprisingly leading in what is usually a reliably Republican state. Whereas all the same exact polls show Texas Republican Greg Abbott safely ahead, showing there are at least a few Abbott voters in the polls — maybe a few Sen. John Cornyn supporters who lost the Republican primary to Paxton — who are going for Talarico.
But if the polls are correct, Republicans, who trail the Congressional generic ballot by an average 6.4 percentage points, might indeed be on the brink of electoral catastrophe. That tracks with the President’s approval ratings, which are low. We’ve seen this movie before, where presidents who had lower approval ratings did more poorly in midterm elections.
There will be plenty of time for Monday morning quarterbacking of the outcome in November. Perhaps the GOP came into the 2026 campaign a bit overconfident and taking certain things for granted, for example, that Ohio (which Barack Obama won twice) is a red state because of Trump, but where former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown might be staging a political comeback if certain polls are to be believed.
Now, don’t report me to the FCC just yet — don’t kill the messenger. Here’s the thing. We actually don’t know right now if the polls are right or wrong. There's still time but the Republican National Committee and President Trump may have to spend their campaign war chests if they want to keep the Senate. Midterms are never easy.
The approval ratings weren’t great for Trump in 2018, either, very similar to today, but with fierce campaigning by the President, Republicans in statewide races did far better than expected — and it could happen again. I guess we'll see.
So, don’t worry, Mr. President. Polls aren’t everything — but you already knew that.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2026/09/dont-worry-mr-president-polls-arent-everything-but-you-already-knew-that/
Cartoon: Rare Sightings
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2026/09/cartoon-rare-sightings/
Video: The Soviet Empire Grew As Did The Power Of A Bloody Dictator. The Cold War In Full Effect, 1945-53
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tper3dZTdPo
Poll: President Trump’s Approval Improved After Victories on Crime, Immigration And Manufacturing
By Manzanita Miller
President Donald Trump’s net approval rating — while still underwater — marginally increased over the month of August, as the administration is finally receiving credit for a number of victories, including an expanding U.S. manufacturing sector, a continued deportation push, and plummeting crime numbers across major cities.
The latest Napolitan News Service-RMG Research presidential approval tracker shows a decline in President Trump’s disapproval rating and an increase in his approval rating over the month of August.
President Trump’s net approval rating has gone from -12 points (55 percent disapprove to 43 percent approve) for the data collected Jul. 27–Aug. 2, to -7 points (52 percent disapprove to 45 percent approve) for the data collected Aug. 24–30. This represents a five-point decline in net disapproval over the past month.
The recent decline in net disapproval shows one of the strongest signals for President Trump’s approval rating since March, or since the Iran conflict began. The week of March 30–April 6, 2026, one month into the conflict with Iran, President Trump’s disapproval rating peaked, with his net approval rating hitting -18 points (58 percent disapprove to 40 percent approve).
While his disapproval rating declined somewhat over the following months, hovering between 53 percent and 58 percent, his approval rating remained in the low 40s for much of the past four months. However, that approval rating is finally beginning to recover. In the latest Aug. 24–30 survey data, President Trump’s approval rating has risen to 45 percent, the highest it has been since April, except for one blip in mid-July when it hit 46 percent before promptly falling the following week.
Whether President Trump’s elevated approval rating holds remains to be seen, but the administration is beginning to stack up tangible victories despite the obstacles of the Iran conflict and cost-of-living concerns driving up disapproval.
President Trump has breathed new life into the American manufacturing sector, with the Institute for Supply Management’s August Manufacturing PMI report indicating the manufacturing sector expanded for the eighth consecutive month in August. The report for July revealed that the Employment Index, which tracks employment across the U.S. manufacturing industry, entered “expansion territory” for the first time since November 2023, a huge victory for the sector.
The Trump administration has also secured political wins that make living and doing business in the U.S. safer. In July, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stacked up the greatest number of illegal alien arrests of President Trump’s second term, with nearly 50,000 arrests of illegals. About half of those arrested were convicted criminals or facing pending charges, while the rest were arrested for violating U.S. immigration law.
Crime is on track to hit a 126-year low in 2026, according to an independent estimate of crime statistics across major cities conducted by the Council on Criminal Justice.
More U.S. taxpayer dollars are being poured into the needs of American citizens and foreign aid is being slashed, in-line with voter preferences. President Trump slashed foreign aid to the lowest number since 2004, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of federal trends released July 21. A plurality of Americans support slashing foreign spending.
The Real Clear Polling presidential approval tracker shows a similar decline in disapproval and a modest rise in approval for President Trump at the close of August. As of Sept. 1, President Trump’s net approval rating sits at -17.5 points, with 57 percent disapproval and 39.5 percent approval.
While this net disapproval rating is higher than the Napolitan News Service average, it still represents a decline in disapproval and a modest uptick in support over the past few weeks. One month ago, on Aug. 1, President Trump’s net approval rating sat at -19.5 points, two points worse than at the start of September.
The generic congressional ballot remains close, with Democrats leading by just 6.4 points, according to the latest Real Clear Polling average.
Despite the headwinds of the Iran conflict and inflation, which remains the top concern for voters according to the latest Economist/YouGov survey, the Trump administration is stacking up victories across crime, immigration, and manufacturing. Whether that will be enough to blunt Democratic expansion in November remains to be seen. Many of President Trump’s initiatives — particularly around the implementation of tariffs to encourage U.S. manufacturing — will take time to yield tangible results that voters are aware of. Other metrics, like crime, are already showing significant declines and immediately translating into safer cities.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2026/09/poll-president-trumps-approval-improved-after-victories-on-crime-immigration-and-manufacturing/
