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Bryce Paul
Crypto 101

Intuit’s Earnings Reset May Be More Pivot Than Plunge

Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 8/28/2026.

When a deeply entrenched market leader sheds nearly half its value in a matter of months, the broader market often starts pricing in a structural breakdown. For software giant Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU), a year-to-date decline approaching 48% has left many investors questioning the durability of its flagship accounting and tax franchises.

Following a soft fiscal 2027 guidance update, Wall Street rushed to adjust its price targets, citing competition in the do-it-yourself tax space and a sluggish outlook for Mailchimp. Looking beyond the headline, however, the pessimism reveals a different story.

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Management is executing a deliberate, near-term operational reset designed to recapture top-of-funnel market share and realign its core accounting businesses. While this pivot is weighing on the valuation today, underlying double-digit growth in the mid-market ecosystem, combined with aggressive share repurchases and structural margin protection, suggests the market may be overdiscounting Intuit's fundamental durability.

Wall Street May Be Reading Intuit’s Reset Too Harshly

Navigating a corporate transition requires distinguishing between a broken business model and a misunderstood strategic pivot. Intuit recently closed out fiscal 2026 with strong fourth-quarter results, delivering $4.35 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $4.03 per share, easily surpassing consensus estimates.

The market reaction, however, was anchored entirely to the fiscal 2027 outlook. Management guided for top-line revenue growth of 9% to 10%, a notable deceleration from the 14% growth achieved in the prior year. The resulting sell-off dragged Intuit stock down to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 16.4, a contraction for a company that has historically commanded a premium software multiple.

Valuation compression of this magnitude often implies permanent market share loss or deteriorating cash flows. Yet analyzing the underlying mechanics of the newly issued guidance provides a different picture: management appears willing to accept short-term optical pain to secure long-term ecosystem dominance.

Intuit Takes the Short-Term Hit to Rebuild the Funnel

A significant portion of the earnings reset stems from a fundamental accounting realignment rather than a deterioration in cash flow. Intuit is no longer excluding stock-based compensation from its non-GAAP profitability metrics.

This shift creates an optical hit of approximately $5.81 per share in the upcoming year's guidance. While including stock-based compensation lowers reported non-GAAP earnings, it provides a more transparent view of true operating costs. Intuit's management is actively addressing dilution concerns by committing to reduce stock-based compensation to approximately 8% of total revenue by fiscal 2030.

Beyond the accounting adjustments, Intuit is aggressively overhauling its consumer tax strategy. Pricing pressure from low-cost competitors has steadily siphoned away high-quality do-it-yourself tax customers. In response, leadership is deliberately sacrificing near-term average revenue per customer to rebuild the top of the sales funnel.

By lowering initial pricing thresholds, TurboTax revenue growth will likely remain muted at around 2% to 3% in the upcoming fiscal year. Sacrificing immediate margins to acquire customers is a classic software-as-a-service playbook, provided Intuit can monetize those users elsewhere.

Intuit is proving it can do just that. The number of Credit Karma members filing through TurboTax rose approximately 50% year over year, demonstrating strong cross-platform collaboration. Acquiring a do-it-yourself tax customer at a lower margin can be highly profitable when that same customer subsequently uses Credit Karma for personal loans or credit cards.

This top-of-funnel strategy also extends to the business segment. The recent rollout of QuickBooks Free and QuickBooks Lite generated roughly 20,000 active or upgraded users within its first month. By capturing entrepreneurs at the very beginning of their business life cycles, Intuit locks them into an ecosystem that can scale alongside their operational needs.

At the same time, Intuit is spinning Mailchimp into a standalone reporting segment and bracing for flat growth as the business digests higher effective prices and persistent churn. This move effectively isolates the slower-growth unit from the core operations.

The Business Segment Still Supports the Bull Case

While the consumer tax segment undergoes a pricing reset and Mailchimp faces restructuring, the core business-to-business ecosystem remains robust. Global Business Solutions revenue, excluding Mailchimp, expanded by roughly 20% in the fourth quarter. The most compelling fundamental data point lies within the mid-market segment, where combined customer growth across QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite reached roughly 28%.

This growth is partially fueled by a planned migration of legacy desktop users to cloud-based platforms. Optically, a decline in desktop revenue can look like customer churn, but it actually reflects a structural upgrade in lifetime customer value as users transition to higher-tier, recurring-revenue software.

Intuit is also quietly building a substantial economic moat through artificial intelligence (AI). An estimated 75% of Intuit Enterprise Suite customers now interact with Intuit AI agents monthly. Embedding artificial intelligence into daily accounting, payroll, and invoicing workflows creates exceptionally high switching costs.

Competitors attempting to lure away these mid-market clients face the challenge of replacing a highly automated, deeply integrated financial operating system. This level of stickiness helps justify the strategic patience required while Intuit resets its lower-end consumer funnels.

Intuit's Aggressive Capital Defense

Transitioning a highly scaled software platform requires capital discipline, especially when deliberately slowing top-line growth to acquire market share. To protect operating margins during this reset, Intuit executed an approximately 17% workforce reduction. These efficiency gains provide the financial padding necessary to redeploy capital into targeted sales, marketing, and product innovation without eroding the bottom line.

Management's confidence in forward cash flow generation is evident in its capital return program. Intuit authorized and executed approximately $5.5 billion in share repurchases over the last fiscal year, representing an almost 96% increase from the prior period. Paired with a 15% increase in the quarterly dividend, which now yields nearly 1.40% at a sustainable 29% payout ratio, Intuit is providing tangible downside protection for shareholders as the strategic pivot takes root.

Filing the Final Return on Intuit's Growth Strategy

The upcoming September investor day serves as the next major catalyst for Intuit. Management will have the opportunity to map out the exact return-on-investment timeline for its top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy and demonstrate the monetization roadmap for its expanding artificial intelligence capabilities.

Investors analyzing the current landscape might view the severe valuation discount as a compelling entry point, provided Intuit continues executing its mid-market and cross-platform growth initiatives. While Wall Street focuses on the immediate sting of guidance resets and accounting shifts, the underlying metrics suggest Intuit is working to fortify a durable, highly cash-generative ecosystem built to compete through the next cycle of financial software.

Medtronic’s Stars Are Aligning for a Price Recovery

Authored by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 9/1/2026.

Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) is a good buy in late 2026 because several favorable factors—including value, growth, guidance, partnerships, and dividends—are aligning. They point to sustained outperformance and potential acceleration but, more importantly, to robust capital returns.

While share buybacks remain at token levels—barely enough to offset dilution and reduce the share count—dividends are more substantial. The dividend is among the top reasons to buy this stock, yielding more than 3% with shares near long-term lows. Additionally, MDT is just one increase away from being crowned a Dividend King.

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Porter Stansberry says a dollar reset is underway - one that has happened only once before in America's 250-year history, back in 1974 with a secret Saudi deal that reshaped an entire generation's wealth.

Today, a landmark treaty called Pax Silica - signed by 13 nations in December 2025 and barely covered in the press - is at the center of what Fortune calls 'the biggest change to the world's relationship with the dollar' in a generation. The stocks to buy, the assets to avoid, and the moves to consider are outlined in Stansberry's new briefing.

Read the full briefing and see how to position yourself now

Dividend King status is more than just a fancy title. It is a hallmark of well-managed, forward-thinking companies that can withstand economic downturns while sustaining and growing capital returns over time. It also attracts long-term, buy-and-hold institutional investors such as California’s State Retirement Fund, which holds a 12% stake in MDT.

Buy-and-hold and institutional investors help reduce market volatility because they rarely sell on headlines alone, and they can underpin upswings when conditions are favorable. Based on institutional trends—including steady accumulation over the past two years and a spike in early Q3—conditions are favorable. Regarding volatility, MDT stock carries a low 0.5x beta, indicating that it is roughly half as sensitive to macroeconomic news as the average S&P 500 company.

Medtronic’s Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance Signal More Upside

Medtronic posted a solid Q1 of fiscal year 2027 (FY2027), with revenue up 13.7% to more than $9.75 billion. The results outperformed guidance and analysts' consensus by a solid margin, including the impact of a well-telegraphed extra week. Strength came from double-digit or near-double-digit gains across all segments, led by an 18.9% increase in Cardiovascular. Core franchises such as Rhythm Management were solid, growing 15%, and were supported by newer businesses such as Ablation Solutions, which grew 80%. Other segments, including Neurosciences, Medical/Surgical, and Diabetes, grew organically by 9.3%, 10.2%, and 14.9%, respectively.

Margin was another area of strength. The company widened its margin on both a GAAP and adjusted basis, driving faster earnings growth. Critical takeaways include a 14.9% increase in adjusted operating earnings, a 15.1% increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), and free cash flow that more than doubled.

Guidance is a catalyst for higher share prices. The company not only outperformed in Q1 FY2027 but also expects those strengths to carry into the next quarter and the rest of the year. Management raised the revenue range by 50 basis points (bps) and the low end of the EPS range, putting the midpoint above the consensus forecast, and is likely being cautious. Momentum in key franchises, investments, and partnerships points to sustained strength, potential outperformance, and improved guidance in the coming quarters.

Analysts Reflect Confidence in MDT’s Outlook

Analysts are responding favorably to MDT’s earnings report, highlighting top- and bottom-line strength, guidance, and potential acceleration in upcoming quarters. The critical takeaway is that analyst trends—including price-target increases and upgrades ahead of the release—remain bullish and are strengthening.

The consensus price target indicated about 10% upside ahead of the report, while the high-end target of $120 represented another 20% in potential upside. Analysts also showed high conviction in the Moderate Buy rating. MarketBeat tracks 27 analysts covering MDT, a substantial figure for a blue-chip healthcare stock.

This group rates the stock a consensus Moderate Buy, with a 67% Buy-side bias and no Sell ratings logged. Conviction in this rating will likely continue to firm as the year progresses, with the high-end target moving higher.

Medtronic’s Growth Catalysts Could Fuel the Next Leg Higher

This year’s catalysts include an investment in Pi-Cardia and a partnership with Cornerstone Robotics. Pi-Cardia expands the cardiovascular portfolio with an advanced, potentially life-saving device for heart valve replacement, while Cornerstone Robotics expands Medtronic’s robotic surgery portfolio. Medtronic has a deal for the international distribution of its Sentire System, providing hospitals with an option alongside the Hugo system.

Medtronic’s stock price also responded favorably to the earnings news, rising approximately 5% in early premarket trading. The move showed support at a cluster of moving averages, including the long-term 150-week and short-term 30-day exponential moving averages, which could serve as a launchpad for a rally. If the market follows through on this signal, MDT shares could retest the critical resistance target at the top of its existing range within weeks, if not days, and move to a fresh high before the next earnings report.

Medtronic’s biggest risk is cybersecurity. It experienced a major breach earlier this year, exposing sensitive personal information and giving hackers access to devices. The company says no health-related issues have arisen, but the event raises safety concerns and increases litigation risk.