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Brian Daitzman is the Editor of The Intellectualist [ [link removed] ]. Subscribe to his Substack. [ [link removed] ]
New U.S. intelligence indicates that Vladimir Putin may be increasingly willing to test NATO, including through provocative actions extending onto alliance territory. The Wall Street Journal and CBS News reported the shift separately, each citing U.S. officials. The Journal reported that the risk window begins this fall and extends through 2029.
Neither report says Russia is preparing to invade a NATO country. The Journal reported that analysts considered scenarios ranging from cyberattacks and other hybrid operations to unmarked armed groups occupying territory and, at the most extreme end, a small-scale land incursion. The probability of a limited ground attack remains low, according to the Journal, although the risk is assessed to increase over time.
The most extreme scenario — a limited land incursion — is still considered unlikely. But U.S. officials say Moscow may be increasingly willing to probe how the alliance, and Washington, would respond.
CBS News reported that U.S. officials view the change less as evidence that Mr. Putin wants a wider war than as a sign that he may be more willing to test NATO’s cohesion and Washington’s willingness to respond if an ally is attacked. The CIA declined to comment to CBS on the reported assessments.
Activity below the threshold of conventional war is already drawing heightened scrutiny across Europe.
Germany’s top military officer, Gen. Carsten Breuer, told The Wall Street Journal that Russia was systematically using drones to probe European air defenses and observe how NATO responds...

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