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Tim Sykes here.

I want to talk to the person who's watched other people make real money
trading and thought…

"I could do that. But I don't have the time."

If that's you, hear me out.

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-Tim Sykes

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Today's Market Update For You
AWS Grew 37% to $42.2 Billion in Q2 — Its Fastest Rate in 18 Quarters — While
Amazon Raised Full-Year Capex to$220 Billion Because Memory Costs Rose and Andy
Jassy Said Capacity Will Still Fall Short of Demand Through 2027
Amazon Web Services reported second-quarter revenue of $42.2 billion, up 36.7%
year over year — its fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration and the fastest
growth rate in 18 quarters — generating$16.6 billion in operating income at a
39.4% margin, a 650 basis point expansion from the year-ago period. Amazon's
total consolidated revenue reached$200.6 billion for the quarter, up 20%, with
operating income rising43% to $27.5 billion. On the same earnings call, CEO
Andy Jassy raised the full-year capital expenditure forecast from approximately
$200 billion to $220 billion, citing elevated high-bandwidth memory costs as
the primary driver of the additional$20 billion — and told analysts that even
at that spending level, Amazon will not have enough infrastructure to meet
customer demand in 2026 or 2027. The AWS contracted backlog reached$496 billion
, up$132 billion in a single quarter, with demand already committed through 2028
.

The two most important numbers in the release sit in tension with each other
in a way that captures the operational paradox of the AI infrastructure cycle.
The650 basis point operating margin expansion — occurring simultaneously with a
76% year-over-year increase in capital expenditure from the prior year's $125
billion — provides the clearest available evidence that Amazon's Trainium
custom chip strategy is generating real financial results. Rather than
purchasing Nvidia GPU capacity at market prices that reflect the same memory
shortage adding$20 billion to Amazon's capex bill, Trainium allows Amazon to
capture more of the infrastructure economics internally. Both Amazon's AI
revenue and its custom chip business independently crossed a$25 billion
annualized run rate in Q2, each growing at triple-digit percentages year over
year.Jassy stated that Anthropic and OpenAI — which he described as the two
leading AI labs globally — have each made multi-year, multi-gigawatt capacity
commitments on Trainium, providing the blue-chip validation that establishes
the platform rather than the revenue run rate alone.
AWS Q2 2026 — The Key Numbers


AWS Q2 Revenue$42.2B (+37%)Fastest growth in 18 quarters; 5th consecutive
quarter of acceleration
AWS Operating Margin39.4% (+650bps)650bp YoY expansion — occurring
simultaneously with a major capex increase

AWS Contracted Backlog$496B+$132B in a single quarter; demand already
committed through 2028
2026 Capex (Raised)$220BUp from $200B; $20B increase driven by elevated HBM
memory costs
The Trainium Thesis — Why Custom Silicon Drives Margin While Capex Rises

Buying Nvidia GPUs at Market Building Trainium In-House

Market pricing reflects HBM shortage — inflated input costs flow directly to
AWSTrainium3 delivers ~30% better cost-performance than comparable Nvidia GPU
instances
Nvidia captures the margin on every accelerator unit sold — not AWSAt full
scale, Jassy projects "tens of billions" in annual capex savings and hundreds
of bps of margin improvement
GPU supply subject to Nvidia's production timeline and export controlsTrainium
annualized run rate $25B+; Anthropic and OpenAI both committed multi-year,
multi-GW capacity
No third-party revenue from the chip itselfExternal Trainium sales "highly
likely" — could add a third revenue stream Nvidia does not share
The 650bp margin expansion while capex rose 76% is the clearest available
evidence that the in-house chip strategy is already producing financial results
— not a future promise.
The structural insight embedded in Jassy's demand framing — a "barbell" of AI
labs and startups on one end, and enterprises still in the early stages of
production inference on the other — is that the AWS growth story has not yet
reached the enterprise demand cycle that historically drives the cloud
industry's largest revenue phase. The first wave of hyperscaler AI spending was
driven by model developers building and training at scale; the second wave,
whichJassy described as enterprises moving workloads to the cloud and
integrating AI into production applications, has only begun. AWS's contracted
backlog growing by$132 billion in a single quarter and demand visibility
extending to2028 provides a revenue floor that the current growth rate,
impressive as it is, does not fully capture.

Sources: CNBC · AWS About Amazon · MLQ.ai · Fierce Network · TechTimes

 


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