Larry has used the same ticker to profit over and over again…‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎
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<[link removed]>

August 30


 



The one ticker to focus on no matter what the Fed does next

Find Out More →
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This message contains promotional content in partnership with Brownstone
Research.
Editor’s Note: Barron’s ranked Larry Benedict’s former hedge fund among the
top 1% in the world. He went 20 straight years without a losing year and
generated $274 million for his clients. Now he’s revealing the one ticker he
believes could benefit most as Trump reshapes the Fed.Click here to see it,
<[link removed]>
or read more below.


How to profit from Trump’s Federal Reserve — whichever way rates move

According to legendary hedge fund trader Larry Benedict…

On September 16, one announcement from Trump’s new Fed could give prepared
investors the chance to make 50%…

Even 100%…

In a matter of days or weeks.

And best of all, you may not need to predict whether interest rates are
heading up or down.

Click here to see the one ticker Larry is recommending.
<[link removed]>

President Trump spent months demanding lower interest rates.

He then chose Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

But on July 29, Warsh’s Fed held rates steady for the second meeting in a row.

Three Fed officials actually voted to raise them.

Trump later admitted to reporters:

“They want to keep rates up.”

Now the next decision is coming on September 16.

Larry Benedict believes that whatever the outcome, it could create a series
of rapid opportunities in the same ticker.

Click here to discover how Larry plans to trade the September 16 decision.
<[link removed]>

He knows what to do because he has done it before.

When the Fed cut rates to zero in 2020, Larry positioned his readers in this
ticker for a 62% gain.

Then, when the Fed signaled higher rates in January 2022, he used the same
ticker to give readers the chance to make 117% in under a month.

Now Larry believes Trump’s new Fed could create the biggest series of
opportunities he has seen in nearly 20 years.

And he has recorded a short briefing, revealing the ticker completely for
free.



Watch Larry’s briefing and get the ticker before September 16.
<[link removed]>

Best wishes,

Lauren Wingfield
Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader

P.S. You don’t need to correctly predict what the Fed will do. But you do need
to be positioned before its decision starts moving the market.Get Larry’s
ticker here.
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THE HILL REPORT

The Event Is Already in the Price

Connor Hill · InsightfulWord · August 30, 2026

An option is a contract, and its price separates into two parts. One is
intrinsic value — the amount by which it is already profitable to exercise. The
other is time value, and the dominant input into time value is implied
volatility: the market's estimate of how much the underlying will move before
the contract expires.

That estimate is not a constant. It rises ahead of scheduled events whose
outcome is unknown and falls immediately afterwards, and the pattern is regular
enough to have a name in the trade.

The mechanism is straightforward. Everyone knows when a central bank meeting,
an earnings release or a scheduled data publication occurs. Option sellers
require more compensation for writing contracts across such a date, because the
range of possible outcomes is wider. Buyers pay it. Implied volatility
therefore climbs into the event.

The moment the announcement lands, the uncertainty it represented is resolved.
Implied volatility collapses toward its ordinary level, and every option whose
price contained that elevated expectation loses that component instantly —
regardless of which way the underlying moved.

This produces the outcome that surprises inexperienced option buyers more than
any other. A person can be correct about the direction of a move, watch the
underlying go exactly where they expected, and still lose money on the option,
because the volatility component fell by more than the directional component
gained.

The condition for profit is therefore not that the underlying moves in the
anticipated direction. It is that the underlying moves further than the price
already implied. That is a materially harder bar, and it is the bar that any
claim of profiting from a scheduled event has to clear.

What follows is what an option price contains before an announcement, why
direction is insufficient, what the two-sided structures actually require, what
the central bank calendar publishes in advance, and what would make a trade of
this kind a considered decision.

What the Price Contains Before an Announcement

The market publishes its own estimate of the coming move, and reading it takes
a minute.

The implied volatility of the options expiring just after an event, converted
to the horizon in question, gives the size of move the market is pricing.
Traders express it as the expected move — a percentage band around the current
price within which the outcome is expected to fall.

That number is observable before the event on any options platform, and it is
the relevant benchmark. It says what has to happen for an option bought at the
current price to be worth more afterwards.

Two features of it matter. It is symmetric in the standard construction — the
market prices a range, not a direction. And it already incorporates every piece
of public information about the event, including the entire body of commentary
predicting the outcome.

That last point disposes of a common intuition. A widely anticipated result is
not an opportunity, because anticipation is what the price is made of. The
profitable outcomes in event trading are the ones nobody expected, which is a
different thing from the ones a person feels confident about.

The term structure of implied volatility makes the effect visible without any
calculation. Options expiring immediately after an event are priced at a higher
implied volatility than options expiring shortly before it, and the difference
between the two is the market's price for the event itself. That comparison is
available on any options chain and it is the cleanest illustration of what is
being bought.


Why Direction Is Not Enough

The arithmetic of the volatility collapse is worth stating concretely.


📊 Market Snapshot

The expected move is published

Implied volatility in options expiring after a scheduled announcement encodes
the size of move the market has already priced, and it can be read before the
event on any options platform. It rises into the event and falls sharply once
the outcome is known, so an option can lose value even when the underlying
moves in the anticipated direction. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission and Options Clearing Corporation investor education on options
pricing.


Support or oppose: should options platforms display the implied expected move
before a scheduled event?

Supporters argue that the figure is computed from data the platform already
has, that it is the single most decision-relevant number for an event trade,
and that its absence leaves buyers unaware of the bar they have to clear.
Opponents answer that displaying it implies a precision the estimate does not
have, that it invites buyers to treat a model output as a forecast, and that
the information is available to anyone who looks. Which serves buyers better?
Hit reply — one line is enough.

Suppose an option is priced with implied volatility elevated ahead of a
meeting. After the announcement, implied volatility on that contract falls back
toward the level that prevailed a month earlier. That fall reduces the option's
price by an amount that depends on how much time remains and how far the strike
sits from the current price.

For a short-dated option near the money, the reduction can be a substantial
fraction of the premium. The underlying then has to have moved enough in the
right direction to more than offset it.

Where the move lands inside the range the market had priced, the option loses.
Where it lands outside, the option gains. The distribution of announcement
outcomes relative to the priced range is therefore the whole question, and it
is not obviously tilted in either direction — which is what one would expect
from a market in which both sides can see the same calendar.


What the Two-Sided Structures Require

The claim that direction does not need to be predicted usually refers to a
structure holding both a call and a put, which profits if the underlying moves
substantially either way.

Such a structure is a direct bet that the realized move will exceed the priced
move. It is not a bet that requires no view; it is a bet with a specific and
demanding view — that the market has under-priced the coming volatility.

Its cost is the sum of two premiums, both inflated by the same elevated
implied volatility. Its break-even points sit outside the range implied by that
premium, on both sides. And after the announcement it suffers the volatility
collapse on both legs simultaneously.

The historical evidence on this is not encouraging for the buyer. Studies of
the volatility risk premium have consistently found that implied volatility
exceeds subsequently realized volatility on average across markets and periods
— which means the systematic edge in these structures has historically belonged
to the seller, who is compensated for bearing the risk.

That does not make buying them irrational in any particular case. It means the
average case runs against the buyer, and a strategy of repeatedly buying
volatility into scheduled events is fighting that average.

The reason the premium exists is worth understanding rather than resenting. A
seller of options is accepting an open-ended risk in exchange for a fixed
payment, and the compensation for accepting that asymmetry is precisely what
the buyer pays. This is the same structure as insurance, and the observation
that insurers profit on average is not a criticism of insurance.


What the Calendar Actually Publishes

The information environment around monetary policy decisions is unusually
rich, and knowing what exists reduces the temptation to treat any of it as
private.


Context — what this is not

Nothing here recommends or discourages any instrument, structure or position,
and options are not suitable for every investor. Buying them risks the entire
premium; selling them can carry losses substantially exceeding the premium
received, and some structures carry theoretically unlimited risk. Anyone
considering them should read the standardized options disclosure document,
which brokers are required to provide, and should be clear about maximum loss
before entering anything. The purpose here is to describe how the pricing
responds to a scheduled event, which is a factual matter, not to suggest what
anyone should do about it.

Meeting dates are set and published roughly a year in advance. Statements are
released at a fixed time. Economic projections and the associated distribution
of participants' rate expectations are published at alternating meetings.
Minutes follow after three weeks. Transcripts follow after five years.

Alongside that, market-implied probabilities of each possible decision are
computed continuously from interest rate futures and are published free by
exchanges and by financial media.

The consequence is that a person entering a position ahead of such a meeting
is doing so with the same information as everyone else, in an instrument priced
by participants who also have it. The uncertainty is genuine, and it is
genuinely shared.

Where surprises do occur, they typically concern the accompanying language and
the projections rather than the decision itself — which is one reason the
largest moves sometimes follow the outcome the market considered most likely.


What Would Make Such a Trade a Considered Decision

Five things distinguish a position taken deliberately from one taken on a
promotion.

The implied move, read before entering, so the bar is known rather than
assumed.

The maximum loss, stated in currency rather than in percentage, and the answer
to whether losing it entirely would matter.

The exit rule, decided in advance, including what happens if the position is
profitable briefly and then is not.

The cost of the round trip, including the spread between bid and offer, which
for short-dated options can be wide relative to the premium.

And the honest answer to what edge is being claimed. A view that the market
has mispriced the coming volatility is a legitimate view. A belief that one
knows the outcome is not an edge, because the outcome is what everyone is
trading on.

The general observation is that scheduled events are the most heavily analyzed
moments in any market, and that the price going into them contains the
analysis. Whatever opportunity exists is in the gap between the priced move and
the realized one, which is a much narrower and more technical proposition than
any headline about a date.


The bill, not the debate

Options into a scheduled announcement carry a premium for uncertainty that
disappears the moment the uncertainty does — which is why a buyer can be right
about direction and still lose. The bar is not the direction of the move but
whether it exceeds the one already priced, and that number is published before
the event. Before positioning for a date, would you look up what move the
market has already paid for?Connor Hill reads every reply.


Sources checked: Options Clearing Corporation — Characteristics and Risks of
Standardized Options, the standardized options disclosure document
<[link removed]>
·U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Investor Education and
Advocacy — investor bulletin on options
<[link removed]>
·Financial Industry Regulatory Authority — options: understanding risk and
suitability
<[link removed]> · Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — FOMC meeting calendars, statements
and projections
<[link removed]> · CME Group —
FedWatch, market-implied probabilities from interest rate futures
<[link removed]> · Carr
and Wu —Variance Risk Premiums, Review of Financial Studies
<[link removed]>


Connor Hill · InsightfulWord





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