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A NATION DIVIDED ON SENTENCING REFORM  
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Keith Wallington
August 27, 2026
Mass Incarceration and Other Bad Ideas
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_ Will policymakers follow evidence, invest in safety strategies that
work, and recognize the human capacity for change, or continue
repeating punitive approaches that history and research have already
shown to fail? _

Advocates gather to discuss strategies for reform at a convening
hosted by The Sentencing Project,

 

Across the country, 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for
sentencing reform, but not in the way many advocates had hoped.

This is not a moment of steady progress. It is a moment of divergence.

In some states, policymakers are advancing reforms grounded in
evidence, second chances, and a more complete understanding of public
safety. In others, leaders are doubling down on rigid sentencing
structures that prioritize punishment over fairness, even when decades
of research show those approaches do little to make communities safer.

The question facing the country is no longer whether reform is
possible. It is whether policymakers are willing to follow the data or
retreat from it.

WHERE PROGRESS IS MOVING FORWARD

In states like Maryland, Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and New
York, momentum is building behind policies that allow courts to
revisit long sentences, expand parole eligibility, and strengthen
pathways to second chances.

In Maryland, lawmakers advanced a broader set of reforms this session
spanning youth justice, sentencing review, and civic reintegration.
The Youth Charging Reform Act limits the automatic prosecution of
young people as adults, addressing long-standing racial disparities in
the youth system. Lawmakers also strengthened implementation of the
Maryland Second Look Act to expand access to sentence review for some
individuals convicted as young adults, and passed automatic voter
registration for people returning from incarceration. Taken together,
these measures reflect an emerging consensus that rehabilitation,
youth development, and community reintegration are central to public
safety.

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The Sentencing Project staff at Youth Justice Lobby Day in Annapolis,
Maryland

These reforms are grounded in a growing body of evidence around the
inefficacy of extremely long sentences, according to recent research
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from The Sentencing Project. People who have served long sentences,
especially those over 50, pose minimal risk to public safety, and
recidivism rates decline sharply with age and time served. The reforms
also reflect a broader understanding of justice, one that recognizes
rehabilitation, accountability, and the role of trauma and
victimization.

Just as importantly, successful reform states have invested in
narrative change before legislation is introduced. Advocates have
paired data with stories of transformation, elevated survivor voices
that prioritize prevention and healing, and built broad coalitions
capable of sustaining reform efforts over time.

Long-term investment in education, coalition-building, and public
engagement helps create the conditions necessary for reform to move.

WHERE STATES ARE BACKSLIDING

But this is only half the story.

In states like Georgia, Alabama, Iowa, and Missouri, lawmakers are
advancing proposals that move in the opposite direction, including
efforts to expand mandatory minimums, eliminate parole eligibility,
and lengthen already excessive prison terms. In Virginia, reform
efforts have stalled under similar political pressures and public
safety narratives.

What is driving this divide is not simply policy disagreement. It is a
narrative rooted in fear and an unhealthy attachment to punishment.

Where reform has stalled, a different narrative dominates. It equates
safety with punitive measures, amplifies fear, and treats severity as
the only form of accountability. In those environments, even
evidence-based policies struggle to gain traction. These approaches
also continue to disproportionately harm Black communities, which
remain significantly overrepresented in prison populations across many
of the states advancing or defending the harshest sentencing policies.

Fortunately, in Georgia, advocates successfully opposed legislation
that would have expanded mandatory minimums and eliminated parole
eligibility across a wide range of cases. In Delaware, advocates
defeated efforts to restrict compassionate release for elderly and
medically vulnerable people. These victories reflect a growing
recognition that public safety is undermined, not strengthened, by
policies that ignore rehabilitation and human capacity for change.

WHERE REFORM EFFORTS ARE STALLING

Even where reforms are enacted, another challenge remains:
implementation.

Too often, access to relief is constrained by procedural barriers,
lack of legal representation, and inconsistent application of the law.
The result is a persistent gap between what reforms promise on paper
and what people actually experience in practice.

This implementation gap risks undermining public confidence in reform
itself. Laws designed to create meaningful release and second chances
cannot succeed if the systems responsible for carrying them out
continue to operate according to outdated punitive assumptions.

In Maryland, for example, implementation of the new parole law has
been slowed by delays in developing the necessary regulations and by
gaps in the reentry infrastructure. As a result, many individuals
serving long sentences have not yet fully benefited from the law’s
expanded opportunities for release. For those granted medical parole,
securing appropriate post-release placement remains a significant
barrier to realizing the law’s intended impact. Maryland’s
experience underscores an important lesson for other states pursuing
parole and long-sentencing reforms, legislative change must be
accompanied by adequate implementation and reentry resources to
achieve its intended outcomes.

THE DEFINING QUESTION FOR 2027

If 2026 has made anything unmistakably clear, it is that sentencing
reform in the United States is no longer moving along a single
trajectory. The country is being pulled in two different directions.

One vision, guided by evidence and human dignity, recognizes that
accountability and rehabilitation are both essential to community
safety. The other, driven by fear and partisanship, continues to cling
to the idea that more punishment equals more safety despite
overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

The states making real progress have demonstrated what is possible
when policy is grounded in research and shaped by people directly
impacted by the system. They have shown that accountability and
rehabilitation are not competing values, but complementary ones, and
that communities are stronger when the justice system recognizes the
human capacity for growth and change.

The path forward is clear. Policymakers must close the gap between
reform and implementation, invest in public understanding before
fear-based narratives take hold, and reject policies that trade
long-term safety for short-term political gain.

At a moment when punitive policies are resurging in many states,
preserving existing reforms and preventing harmful rollbacks is itself
an important measure of progress.

But meaningful progress will not happen automatically in 2027. It will
require lawmakers, advocates, directly impacted leaders, survivors,
and community organizations to work together now to build durable
reform strategies rooted in evidence and public education.

The Sentencing Project stands ready to support state leaders and
advocacy partners working to advance evidence-based sentencing reform,
expand second chances, and promote policies that strengthen both
accountability and community safety. As states prepare for the next
legislative cycle, the opportunity remains open to build systems that
reflect what decades of evidence already show: people are capable of
change, and communities are safer when justice systems recognize that
truth.

Sentencing reform has always been a question of values. In 2026, the
choice is clear: whether policymakers will follow evidence, invest in
safety strategies that work, and recognize the human capacity for
change, or continue repeating punitive approaches that history and
research have already shown to fail.

 

_Keith Wallington is a Senior Campaign Strategist at The Sentencing
Project. His work centers on advancing policies to abolish life
without parole, expand second-look sentencing reviews, cap excessive
sentences at 20 years, and eliminate mandatory minimums._

 

_Mass Incarceration and Other Bad Ideas: Challenging the status quo,
one criminal justice policy failure at a time._

* Mass Incarceration
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* Sentence Reform
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* criminal justice system
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