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Target Is Winning Shoppers Back—Can the Rally Reach $180?

Authored by Thomas Hughes. Published: 8/19/2026.

Target (NYSE: TGT) hit the bullseye with its Q2 results, proving that getting back to basics can work. The results included better-than-expected top- and bottom-line performance, sustained growth and improved guidance. A key detail was comparable-store strength, highlighting the most important factor in retail results: traffic.

Target’s traffic is improving, while its inventory focus and price moderation are resonating with consumers. Momentum is building across the network, potentially setting the stage for similarly solid results in subsequent releases and keeping the uptrend in TGT's share price intact.

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While waiting for price weakness is a sound strategy, it may be too late. Target’s stock is now in recovery mode, underpinned by solid results and an optimistic outlook.

It's likely that the uptrend in the stock price will continue to gain momentum, pushing the stock toward $180 or higher by year’s end.

Technical trigger points include the $160 resistance level, whose breach would signal a structural shift in the market. This resistance level has been in place for more than a year, coincides with a multiyear congestion band and marked the market’s pivot from hopeful to hopeless during Target’s post-COVID struggles. A move above $160 would signal a tipping point at which capital inflows could accelerate.

Target’s Q2 Beat Shows Traffic Growth and Stronger Guidance

Target posted a solid Q2, with revenue up 5.4% to more than $26.5 billion. Revenue was also up incrementally on a two-year stack, signaling a structural shift in the business, with growth outperforming expectations by a solid 150 basis points (bps). Comparable-store sales, which measure growth at existing stores, rose an unexpected 3.8%, supported by a 3.6% increase in traffic.

Product mix also played a role, with prices down across a wide range of products and highlighting the strength of the company’s strategy. Executives said strength was broad-based across channels, demographics and categories during the period.

Margin strength was another contributor. While tariff refunds boosted income and earnings, results exceeded MarketBeat’s consensus figures across all comparisons. Adjusted earnings of $4.11 included $1.65 in IEEPA refunds, but earnings still outperformed consensus by $1.77, prompting management to raise its guidance.

More importantly, the earnings strength is reflected in the balance sheet, which shows an increasingly strong financial position and greater capacity for capital returns. Guidance is a catalyst for the market: Executives raised targets for revenue, margins and earnings, putting them above consensus even without the impact of tariff refunds.

Analysts See Target’s Turnaround Gaining Momentum

Analysts were generally pleased with the results, citing merchandising and store resets as drivers of traffic and comparable-store sales, while operational factors supported margin improvement.

While no analyst revisions were released alongside these initial reactions, downgrades or price-target reductions are not expected. The news exceeded expectations, strengthening the near- and long-term outlook and suggesting the recovery in analyst sentiment will probably continue.

MarketBeat currently tracks 32 analysts who rate TGT a consensus Hold, with a 40% Buy-side bias and a $143.85 price target. The price target lagged the market as of mid-August but is up significantly over the past year, supporting the rally, with recent revisions firmly at the high end of the range. The highest target is $177, well above the $160 trigger point and close to the $180 target level.

Institutions Buy Into Target’s Turnaround and 3% Yield

Target presents an attractive opportunity in August 2026, given the company's turnaround, its low price multiple relative to competitor Walmart (NYSE: WAL) and its high 3% dividend yield. The yield is about three times the S&P 500 average and nearly four times WMT's yield, while the stock trades at half the cost relative to its earnings power. TGT shares could rise 100% from $150, moving well above their existing highs, and still offer better value and yield than Walmart.

Institutional activity suggests the opportunity is real, given the group’s 80% ownership rate and aggressive posture in 2026. Institutions have bought aggressively, accumulating nearly four times as many shares as they sold over the trailing 12 months, with most of that activity occurring in early Q3, just ahead of the release.

A key driver of long-term price action is the potential resumption of share buybacks. Target paused buyback activity in 2023 to preserve capital, and that decision has had a positive impact. Balance sheet highlights at the end of Q2 2026 include improved cash, inventory, current assets and total assets compared with the prior year. Long-term debt and liabilities declined, while equity increased. With these improvements in place, buybacks could resume by year’s end or in early 2027. The biggest risk is consumer demand. While shoppers are returning to Target, macroeconomic pressures remain and may cap near-term growth potential. Oil prices, inflation and interest rates are all concerns, and none show clear signs of easing soon.