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Saturday, August 29, 2026 • Daily Market Alert

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Additional Reading from Daily Market Alerts:

Nvidia Just Broke the $100 Billion Quarterly Barrier. What Comes Next?

On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported fiscal
second-quarter results that would have seemed impossible just two years ago.
Revenue for the quarter ended July 2026 came in at $96.22 billion — more than
doubling from $46.74 billion in the same period last year, a 106%
year-over-year jump. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.22 beat Wall Street's
consensus estimate of $2.09 by 6.2%. It was the company's 15th consecutive
quarter of beating estimates.

But the number that made markets truly take notice wasn't in the rearview
mirror. It was the outlook.

For the fiscal third quarter ending October 2026, Nvidia guided revenue to
approximately $108.00 billion, plus or minus 2%. That figure crossed the
$100.00 billion quarterly milestone for the first time in the company's
history. Analysts had been expecting around $104.00 billion. And on the
earnings call, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress offered something even more striking:
an expectation that fiscal year 2028 revenue would grow approximately 70% year
over year — nearly double the roughly 45% analysts had modeled.

The stock reacted with its own version of whiplash. Shares initially fell
almost 2% in after-hours trading Wednesday — a pattern that has become
familiar, as the bar of expectation has risen so high that even blockbuster
numbers can initially disappoint. Then the after-hours dip reversed sharply
once the FY28 guidance landed on the call. By Thursday's close, August 27,
Nvidia finished up 8.74%, adding more than $440.00 billion in market
capitalization in a single session. As of Friday, August 28, the stock trades
at $217.87, pulling back 4.44 percent as the Jackson Hole Fed speech tempered
broader market enthusiasm.

Inside the Numbers

Nvidia's data center division — the heart of the company's AI chip empire —
generated $89.02 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 117% year over year and
18% from the prior quarter. Within that total, hyperscale revenue reached
$48.71 billion, up 102% year over year, driven by what management described as
"extraordinary" demand for Blackwell Ultra infrastructure. Vera Rubin, the
company's next-generation chip platform, is expected to represent roughly 20%
of data center revenue in Q3.

Gross margins came in at 75.0% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, compared
with 72.4% a year earlier. That margin expansion on a business now operating at
nearly $400.00 billion in annualized revenue is a feat that analysts have been
closely watching, and it held up.

Nvidia's market capitalization now stands at approximately $5.28 trillion,
making it one of the largest companies ever to exist by that measure. The stock
trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of $27.63 on trailing earnings per share of
5.84. Its 52-week range spans from $164.07 to $236.54 — meaning even after
Thursday's surge, the stock remains about 8% off its all-time high. The 10
analysts who weighed in on August 27 carry an average price target of $333.00,
with the highest target reaching $400.00, implying potential upside of more
than 52% from current levels.

AMD: A Second Beneficiary to Watch

While Nvidia dominates the AI chip narrative, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:
AMD) remains the most credible alternative for data center customers looking to
diversify their AI hardware suppliers. AMD shares trade at $469.64 as of August
28, down about 20% from a 52-week high of $584.73. That pullback has come even
as Nvidia's success validates the scale of AI infrastructure spending that
AMD's own products — including its MI300X and upcoming MI350 accelerators — are
positioned to capture.

Analyst consensus on AMD is mixed but leaning positive: six of nine tracked
analysts hold bullish ratings, with an average price target of $596.11 that
implies upside of roughly 27% from current prices. Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy
carries the most aggressive target at $700.00. The wide spread between AMD's
current price and analyst targets reflects both genuine uncertainty and genuine
opportunity as AI infrastructure buildout continues.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH), which holds both Nvidia and AMD
as major positions, stands at $553.74 — about 17.6% below its 52-week high of
$671.83. The broader market, as measured by SPY, trades at $769.03, off 0.27
percent on the day but near its 52-week high of $779.37.

The Fed Complicates the Picture

The same Friday that the market was processing Nvidia's blockbuster guidance,
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first major speech as chairman
at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. His remarks did not
offer the clarity markets had hoped for.

Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and that
recent readings had not demonstrated "meaningful improvement in underlying
price trends." He stopped short of outlining a specific reaction function — the
conditions that would trigger a rate move in either direction — leaving
investors to fill in the blanks themselves.

Markets filled them hawkishly. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed to
approximately 4.29% following the remarks, and the odds of a rate hike at the
September 15-16 FOMC meeting moved to roughly 50% — up from around 34% before
the speech. The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate currently sits at a target
range of 3.50% to 3.75%, held steady at the July 29 meeting by a 9-to-3 vote,
with three committee members dissenting in favor of an immediate increase.

That internal division, combined with Warsh's deliberately opaque language,
means the September meeting is genuinely uncertain. For growth stocks like
Nvidia and AMD, a rate hike would add pressure on top of already elevated
long-term bond yields. The AI earnings story and the interest rate story are
now on a collision course — and the next chapter gets written September 16.

Continue Reading →
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