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Friday, August 28, 2026 • Daily Market Alert

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Explore Today's Market News from Behind the Markets:

Workday beat every number and raised its guidance. The stock moved 0.15%.

Wall Street spent Thursday celebrating. Nvidia's blowout quarter finally
landed, and the tape did exactly what you would expect: the Nasdaq Composite
jumped 411 points to 26,541.35, up 1.57%. Nvidia itself closed at $227.98, up
8.74%. Salesforce added 14.4%. CrowdStrike added 14.5%. Palo Alto Networks
gained 8.5%. The S&P 500 finished at 7,730.99, up 0.72%, and the Dow closed at
53,568.55, up 0.20%. The VIX sank 4.6% to 14.51 — its lowest close of the week.

Then the closing bell rang, and two of the market's favorite AI-adjacent
names reported earnings that beat expectations. Both stocks went sideways or
worse.

That is the story worth paying attention to heading into Friday.

Workday delivered. The market said "so what."

Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY) reported fiscal second-quarter results after
Thursday's close and cleared the bar on essentially every line:

* Total revenue of $2.649 billion, up 12.8% year over year, against a
consensus near $2.64 billion.
* Subscription revenue of $2.471 billion, up 13.9% — ahead of the company's
own $2.455 billion guide.
* Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.75, versus the $2.61 consensus drawn from 36
analysts. That is a 14-cent beat and a jump from $2.21 a year ago.
* Non-GAAP operating income of $824 million, or 31.1% of revenue, up from
29.0% a year earlier.
* 12-month subscription backlog of $9.034 billion, up 14.2%.
* Management raised the fiscal 2027 subscription revenue outlook to
$9.940–$9.950 billion and lifted full-year non-GAAP operating margin guidance
to 31.0%.
* The board authorized an additional $4.0 billion in buybacks, on top of the
$1.3 billion of stock Workday repurchased during the quarter.
CEO Aneel Bhusri said AI drove more than 25% of new annual contract value and
that more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent — up more
than 35% from the prior quarter.

The stock closed the regular session at $193.57, up 1.48%. In after-hours
trading it sat at $193.86. That is a move of 0.15%.

For a company whose average one-week post-earnings move has run near +8%, and
which carries a live takeout bid in the background — Reuters reported on August
13 that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday, a company with roughly a
$48 billion market capitalization — a 0.15% reaction is not indifference. It is
a message.

What the market actually read

Look past the headline beat and two numbers explain the shrug.

Total subscription backlog grew 8.0%, to $27.403 billion. Last quarter that
figure was growing 11%. The 12-month number still looks strong at +14.2%, but
the long-tail book — the multi-year commitments that tell you what enterprise
customers are willing to sign up for years out — decelerated by three full
percentage points in a single quarter.

Free cash flow fell. Workday generated $460 million in free cash flow this
quarter versus $588 million a year ago. Operating cash flow dropped to $520
million from $616 million. Margins expanded, but cash conversion went the other
way.

Neither number is a crisis. Both are exactly the sort of thing that keeps a
buyer disciplined when a private equity firm is circling. Workday shares have
run 61% over the past three months, and the average analyst price target sits
at $188.21 — below Thursday's close of $193.57. When the sell side's consensus
target is already underwater, a good quarter buys you very little.

Marvell had it worse

The same evening, Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) posted a record quarter:
net revenue of $2.739 billion, up 37% year over year, with data center revenue
growth accelerating to 46%. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.94 against a $0.93
consensus. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $3.150 billion, well
above where the Street sat, and raised its outlook for both fiscal 2027 and
fiscal 2028.

Marvell closed the regular session at $241.45, down 1.49%. In after-hours
trading it fell to $224.86 — down 6.87%.

A record quarter, accelerating growth in the single hottest end market in
technology, a raised outlook for two fiscal years, and the stock lost nearly 7%
in the dark. That is what happens when a stock has already run from $61.44 to
$329.88 in twelve months and the beat comes in at a single penny. Everyone was
watching Nvidia this week — but the reaction function underneath the AI trade
is where the information is.

The tell in the tape

Notice the pattern. Nvidia beat and gained 8.7% because it beat by roughly $4
billion on the top line and guided $4 billion above consensus. Marvell beat by
a penny and lost 7%. Workday beat by 14 cents, raised guidance, and moved 0.15%.

The market is no longer paying for a beat. It is paying only for a beat large
enough to justify a multiple that already assumes one. That is a late-cycle
condition, and it usually shows up before the leadership narrows rather than
after.

It is also happening against a macro backdrop that has quietly stopped
cooperating. July core PCE came in at 3.3% year over year, above the 3.2%
forecast, and headline PCE ran 3.7% — the last inflation print before the
September 16 FOMC meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield finished Thursday at
4.676%. Core inflation has now sat above 2% for 65 consecutive months.
Meanwhile the physical footprint of the AI buildout is drawing real opposition,
and China's July data came in worse than expected — two constraints the
earnings numbers do not yet reflect.

What lands next

Friday morning brings the event this entire week has been building toward.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote at
10:00 a.m. ET, at a symposium themed "Financial Innovation: Implications for
Payments and Policy." Roughly 120 central bankers from more than 70 countries
are in the room.

Warsh has been deliberately opaque since taking the chair in May, preferring
to let markets read the data rather than steering them with signals. He has
also been unambiguous on one point: "There is no soft inflation target. There's
only a target, and it's 2%." CME FedWatch currently puts September hike odds
near 40%, down from roughly 55% a month ago — a market that has talked itself
into calm.

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