Dear MoveOn member,
I'm Amy White, MoveOn's Director of Analytics. I don't write to you often,
but in the wake of the sickening Republican National Convention, I wanted
to reach out to share the details about a program my team is running to
put an end to Donald Trump's authoritarianism on November 3.
As the RNC confirmed over four painful nights, the GOP strategy to win is
to use their billionaire donors to flood battleground states with
fearmongering, racist ads and messaging to try to rally their base toward
Trump.
We could never match their spending dollar for dollar—but luckily, we
don't have to. Because here's the truth: The most effective and impactful
campaign strategy is not sending generic, inflammatory messages far and
wide, it's actually highly targeted outreach to small groups of voters who
are most likely to tip swing states blue.
That's where my team comes in.
We are building models to identify "high-potential voters," with the goal
of turning out 100,000 people who would otherwise not vote across the 14
most important battleground states—a goal that, if we're able to achieve
it, could clinch the election for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
I'll lay out all the details below, but I need to ask you now: Will you
chip in $3 a week to help us power this game-changing, all-or-nothing
campaign until the very last vote is counted? (MoveOn will bill your
weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will
contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or
cancel your weekly donation.)
[ [link removed] ]Count me in.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
You might be asking: What is a "high-potential voter," and how are you
going to reach out to them?
Great questions!
We define "high-potential voters" as being voters and potential voters who
fit one or more of these criteria:
* Voters who cast a ballot for Barack Obama in 2012 but did not vote in
2016.
* Voters who cast a ballot for a third-party candidate in recent
elections.
* Voters who cast ballots in the 2018 midterms but did not vote in 2016.
* New voters who turned 18 after the 2016 election.
* Naturalized citizens who have become eligible to vote since 2016.
* And in all of these categories, we are focused specifically on younger
voters and voters of color.
Through extensive research and statistical modeling, we've found a
whopping 7 million voters who fit into these categories spread across the
14 most important battleground states.
Donald Trump is president today because of 10,704 votes in Michigan,
46,765 votes in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 votes in Wisconsin.^1 That means
if we can get just over 1% of those 7 million people to cast ballots for
the Biden-Harris ticket, Trump will almost certainly lose this time
around.
One percent. That's it.
So how are we reaching out to these voters? Using powerful, personalized
messaging tailored to each individual voter.
Last week, for example, we tested 18 different messages about the critical
importance of defeating Trump to 850,000 voters across the battleground
states to learn which messages are most effective at convincing voters to
sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to help three of their
friends or family to vote too.
My team and I will be able to use the data we gather from this test to
target the most powerful messages to millions of individual voters based
on their location, age, political leanings, and more.
We used a similar method in 2018 to send persuasive videos to potential
voters in important districts and states, and in the end, that program
helped to secure tens of thousands of votes for Democrats and, in turn,
helped to flip control of the House.
This program is even bigger—and far more important given that a second
Trump term is on the line.
But it's expensive. We have to purchase thousands of ads, send millions of
text messages, create customized videos, and build statistical models—and
then do it over and over again through Election Day.
That's where you come in, John. Can you chip in $3 a week to
help us reach millions of high-potential voters with customized messages
that are proven to be effective at turning out voters? (MoveOn will bill
your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and
will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify
or cancel your weekly donation.)
[ [link removed] ]Count me in.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
The newest polls since both conventions wrapped up show that the race is
tightening between Trump and Biden, and although these polls should serve
as a shock to the system and a reminder that we have to push as hard as we
can over the next nine weeks, my team and I were prepared for them, and we
built this program to be effective in exactly this scenario.^2
We always knew that this election would be close, and that—just like in
2016—victory could come down to a few thousand votes spread over just a
handful of states.
Our high-potential voter program was specifically designed for a close
election. That's what makes it special. We are focused on voters who would
otherwise stay home on Election Day but who could be the difference
between winning and losing on November 3.
I've run the tests. I've seen the numbers. I know this can work.
So I'm asking you now to take any fear or anger or anxiety that you're
feeling and help me turn it into action by chipping in $3 a week to power
this game-changing program. Will you chip in? (MoveOn will bill your
weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will
contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or
cancel your weekly donation.)
[ [link removed] ]Count me in.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
Thanks for all you do.
–Amy White
Sources:
1. "Donald Trump will be president thanks to 80,000 people in three
states," The Washington Post, December 1, 2016
[link removed]
2. "Trump Pulls Closer to Biden After RNC," Morning Consult, August 29,
2020
[link removed]
Want to support our work? As Senator Kamala Harris says “I believe that
MoveOn is needed more than ever. MoveOn and its members are always there
fighting on the front lines. And, in these especially tough times, when
what we do really counts, I am heartened to know that.” To defeat Trump,
elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and flip the Senate, we all need to do
our part.
Will you chip in $3 a week to help MoveOn combat right-wing lies, make
sure every vote is counted, and win this election? (MoveOn will bill your
weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will
contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or
cancel your weekly donation.)
[ [link removed] ]Count me in.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION,
[ [link removed] ][link removed]?. Not authorized by any candidate or
candidate's committee.
You can unsubscribe from this mailing list at any time:
[link removed]
