The IEA says more than 20% of Russia's refining capacity is offline. Ukraine's
General Staff says 42.7%. That gap is bigger than most countries' entire
refining industry. Meanwhile: fuel output down roughly a quarter year over
year, running below domestic demand.



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Fifty million people are living inside the margin of error
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→
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Сⅼіϲk hеrе. <[link removed]>





The IEA says more than 20% of Russia's refining capacity is offline.

Ukraine's General Staff says 42.7%.

That gap is bigger than most countries' entire refining industry.

Meanwhile: fuel output down roughly a quarter year over year, running below
domestic demand. Fifty million people affected. Three regions under states of
emergency.

<[link removed]>
When the world's best analysts can't agree on the size of a hole this large,
the market isn't priced for either answer.
<[link removed]>

That barrel has to come from somewhere. Somebody refines it. Somebody moves
it.

One company is already positioned for both.

See the full story
<[link removed]>






DAILY NEWS




The Hormuz Framework Has a Hidden Problem: Iran Wants to Close the Route the
U.S. Has Been Using




The Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping framework that sent oil prices falling three
consecutive days contains a detail that has received less attention than the
mine-clearing announcement or the framework's broader diplomatic significance,
but which may prove to be the most practically consequential: Iran's insistence
that the deal include the closure of the southern Omani-coast route — the
specific corridor that the U.S. Navy has been using for its dark transit escort
operations and that the United States considers a UN-authorized freedom of
navigation route.


A key route currently used by ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would
close under a pending Iran-Oman deal, according to a senior Iranian diplomat,
with Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi saying the
yet-to-be-finalized deal would see the closure of the southern route — a
UN-authorized shipping channel that follows the coast of Oman and that Iran
vehemently opposes — with parts of new inbound and outbound corridors passing
through Iranian waters, according to CNN's analysis of the deal's structure.
The Omani statement announcing the framework did not mention the southern
route's closure, creating a gap between the two parties' characterizations of
what the framework actually contains.




KEY TAKEAWAYS

* Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed the pending Oman-Iran framework
would close the southern Omani route — a UN-authorized corridor the U.S. has
been using for dark transit escort operations — with replacement corridors
running through Iranian territorial waters.
* The Omani joint statement announcing the framework omitted any mention of
the southern route's closure, creating a significant interpretive gap between
the Iranian and Omani characterizations of what was actually agreed.
* Closing the southern route while establishing Iran-managed replacement
corridors constitutes, by the U.S. definition, the Hormuz toll and transit
management arrangement that Bessent, Rubio, and Trump have all explicitly said
the United States will not accept.



The significance of closing the southern Omani route goes beyond the specific
ships that use it. The U.S. Navy's dark transit escort operations — helping oil
tankers transit with transponders turned off — have used that Omani corridor as
the operational pathway. If that route closes under a finalized Iran-Oman
agreement, the dark transit workaround that has been moving a small but
meaningful volume of oil also closes. Iran would then control both the northern
corridor through its territorial waters and the southern corridor that would be
shut under the deal — giving Tehran the comprehensive Hormuz management role it
has been seeking since the conflict began.


For the United States, this is the specific scenario it has repeatedly said it
will not accept. Bessent, Rubio, and Trump have all explicitly stated the U.S.
will not allow Iran to establish a toll-collection framework or transit
management role over an international shipping lane. A deal that closes the
southern Omani route and establishes Iran-managed corridors as the only passage
options is, by the U.S. definition, precisely that framework — regardless of
what it is called in the Oman-Iran joint statement.




SOURCE:




* "Iran war latest: Oil prices fall on hopes of Iran-Oman deal to reopen
Strait of Hormuz" — CNN
* "Iran and Oman discuss joint shipping route in Strait of Hormuz and mine
clearing mission" — CNBC

 


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