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Trader Insight Media






<> Aug 18, 2026




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Today's Market Update For You




The Dollar Is Falling for a Third Straight Day as Fed Hike Bets Fade


Written by Andrew Green



 
Quick Take

The Quick Take A Bloomberg gauge of the US dollar fell 0.2% Monday, its third
straight day of losses, and is hovering near levels last seen in May. Weak US
economic data — including a 0.6% drop in July retail sales, the first decline
in nine months — has reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at the
September 16 meeting. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 74% probability the
Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 25% for a quarter-point hike.
MSCI's emerging-market currency index is on pace for an all-time high close,
with the Taiwan dollar and Thai baht among the region's biggest gainers.


 

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Body

What Happened
A Third Day of Dollar Losses

The dollar weakened against most major currencies Monday, with a Bloomberg
gauge of the greenback slipping 0.2% for a third consecutive day of losses,
pushing it toward levels not seen since May. The move follows Friday's report
that US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the first monthly decline in nine
months and a signal that American consumers are pulling back.

The weaker data has reduced traders' expectations for a Federal Reserve
interest rate hike at the September 16 meeting. Polymarket's contract on the
September decision currently prices a 74% probability the Fed holds rates at
their current 3.50%-3.75% range, with a 25% probability of a quarter-point hike
and roughly 1% for a cut.

Why It Matters
The Fed Chair Already Warned This Could Happen

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in this past May after succeeding Jerome
Powell, held rates steady at the Fed's July 29 meeting despite a divided vote
and hawkish rhetoric from several committee members.
"I want to stress, of course, that decisions by this committee matter a great
deal, and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act." —
Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, July 29 press conference
Warsh's own framing put the burden on incoming data, and July's retail sales
and jobs numbers have both come in on the weak side since then — the kind of
data that makes a hike harder to justify. The dollar's slide the past three
sessions is the market's real-time verdict on how that data has shifted the
odds.

The Numbers
MetricWhat It Means
Dollar moveDown 0.2% Monday, third straight losing day
July retail salesFell 0.6%, first decline in 9 months
Sept. 16 hold probability74% per Polymarket
Sept. 16 hike probability25% per Polymarket
What To Watch Next
Where the Money Is Actually Going

The flip side of dollar weakness is currency strength elsewhere. MSCI's
emerging-market currency index was on track for an all-time high close Monday,
with the Taiwan dollar and Thai baht among the region's top performers — a sign
that money moving out of dollar assets is finding a home in emerging markets
rather than sitting in cash.

The next major test for this dollar-weakness trade is the Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium, running August 27-29, where Warsh is scheduled to deliver
his first keynote address as Fed chair on a theme built around financial
innovation and payments policy — a chance for him to either confirm or push
back against the market's growing conviction that a hike isn't coming.

What's Ahead
EventWhat It Means
Jackson Hole SymposiumAugust 27-29; Warsh's first keynote as Fed chair
Next FOMC meetingSeptember 16, current base case is a hold
EM currency indexOn pace for an all-time high close
Current fed funds rate3.50%-3.75%, held since July 29
What to Watch Next 1 · Jackson Hole, Aug. 27-29
Warsh's first keynote as Fed chair will be read closely for any shift away
from the market's current hold expectation.
2 · August Jobs Report
Due before the September meeting, another weak print would further cement hold
expectations; a rebound could revive hike bets quickly.
3 · Dollar Index Levels Near May Lows
A break below those levels would confirm the market is pricing in more than
just a one-meeting pause.

The Bottom Line
The dollar's third straight losing session isn't a standalone story — it's the
market translating a string of soft data points, from the jobs report to
Friday's retail sales miss, into lower odds of a Fed hike next month.

Kevin Warsh's own words in July put the decision back on the data, and the
data since then has mostly argued for patience. That's why prediction markets
have moved to a 74% hold probability even as some Fed officials sound hawkish
in public.

Watch what Warsh says at Jackson Hole on August 27, not what individual Fed
officials say in the meantime — his framing in July made clear that's where the
real signal will come from.



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