August, 2020, Florida County Republican Registrations Report and Elections Analysis
©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, September, 2020
Issued 09/03/20
- Congratulations to DeSoto County for joining the ranks of the now 48 Florida Counties where Republican registrations exceed Democrat registrations!
- In August, Republican registrations in Florida, relative to Democrat registrations, improved by a strong 39,423 registrations. This was the second strong month in a row and leaves the Democrats with a 202,330 relative registration advantage (See attached chart and tables). Republican registrations also passed the 5 million mark in August for the first time!
- The two months of solid gains in Republican registrations is hypothesized to be at least partially owing to the fear of ever greater lawlessness if Democrats have election success in November.
It is strategically important for Republicans to have a fully functioning socio-economic system leading up to the 2020 election and fear of COVID-19 is not allowing this to happen.
One of the great things about the U.S. socio-economic system is that it is a system that champions the individual, not the state, or the collective. Each person seeking his or her best interests, utilizing our private property system under the rule of law, results in prosperity. Our drug approval process should also champion the individual.
Stalin has been quoted as saying something along the lines of "one death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic". The daily reported COVID-19 death counts are statistics. The late July death of Herman Cain was a tragedy. Mr. Cain was destined to die, not because there wasn't an effective treatment, but because effective treatments were not available pending FDA approvals. The approval process was deemed by the government to be more important than individual lives, including Herman Cain's.
COVID-19 may present as at least two different diseases. For most, COVID-19 is a virus, not much different from the common cold or the flu. For others, COVID-19 causes a severe and sometimes deadly immune response. Modern labs are able to measure viral loads and immune responses. The approval process forces time consuming trials pitting a placebo, or the standard of care, against a treatment candidate. Modern capabilities are ignored. The government interests in serving individuals, such as Mr. Cain, are subjugated to the government's need to run "randomized, placebo-controlled" clinical trials!
As early as April there were at a minimum a handful of treatments that showed efficacy against the COVID-19 hyper-immune reaction. In one such treatment the science showed a calming of the immune system and a drop of viral load. This treatment has now proven to be effective in a phase ll trial of mild to moderate patients (for a comparison of this drug to Remdesivir see https://royberina.worldpress.com). The treatment achieved statistical significance in The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), which is a look at a grouping of symptoms, where if the collective symptoms are worsening, there is a high probability of the patient becoming severe or critical. As far as can be ascertained, this is the first COVID-19 drug achieving statistical significance in a FDA approved phase ll or phase lll trial (at least as of this writing). The drug has yet to be approved (again, as of this writing). The death statistics keep increasing. We are numb to the tragedy of individual deaths.
There are yet other treatments in testing that may prove to have great efficacy. Governor DeSantis and President Trump would be heroes if approval for effective therapies were granted. Having a treatment would accelerate the reopening of our economy while also greatly increase the ability of these men to get re-elected.
A new table was created for this month's report (Table 2, see attachment). This new table lists the counties' homeownership rates, the change in homeownership rates, and the median home price with the associated changes in registrations since the 2018 election. Generally, a lower median home price, a higher homeownership rate, and a rising homeownership rate correlates with Republicans gaining relative registrations.
A common reason stated for not utilizing housing policies to positively change Republican voting trends and registrations is the long-term nature of the effort. Housing related efforts are not long-term efforts; they just have a long lead time! The difference is not trivial.
There are many Republican trending counties where favorable housing policies are in place and they are experiencing real-time, continuous, monthly gains in Republican market share. If these counties adopt even more positive housing policies, the efforts will quietly add to their success. There are also Democrat trending counties with unfavorable housing policies experiencing real-time, continuous, growth in Democrat market share. The counties Republicans control should not be shifting to become more Democrat. One way for Republican counties to lose market share is for Republicans to adopt housing policies which grow Democrat market share! The second way for this to happen is for the state and/or federal government to force local governments to adopt Democrat market share growing housing policies. Please consider the repercussions of Democrats winning elections and forcing their bad housing polices, such as Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing, on everyone.
People are fleeing Democrat run cities and states. Owing to the lateness of the 2020 election in the reapportionment cycle, this vacating of Democrat places will not help Republicans much until after reapportionment. State and local Republicans should have policies in place that champion the creation of owner-occupied housing so Republicans can maximize the political advantage obtained from the exodus of voters from Democrat cities and states.
Best,
Steve Meyer, Indian River County REC Member
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