Dear Reader,

January 7th.

1:11 P.M.

Just outside Washington, D.C.

I was sitting across from a man I cannot identify publicly.

And I was about to hear a story that would completely change how I viewed the events now unfolding in Iran.

My source has connections reaching into Saudi Arabia…

The UAE…

And our own State Department.

Through those connections, he learned details of an enormous global deal.

And he agreed to tell me what he knew.

The implications were staggering.

Because if his information was accurate…

There was a financial story developing behind the geopolitical story everyone else was watching.

Potentially a $7 trillion financial story.

I left that meeting with a lot of questions.

So, I investigated.

What I discovered corroborated enough of his story that I decided Americans deserved to hear it.

Click here and I’ll take you inside my investigation.

You’ll see what my source told me…

What I subsequently uncovered…

And why I believe the Iran war looks very different once you follow the money.

Go here to see the complete story.

To your future,

Addison Wiggin

Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

On Holding's Price Stumble May Be an Opening for a Company Built to Run

Written by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 8/12/2026.

On Holding's (NYSE: ONON) August price stumble may be creating a buy-the-dip setup because the underlying causes are either beyond the company's control or supportive of its long-term outlook, which includes a high-margin, high-growth engine. The bad news is that revenue fell short of market expectations, but let's be fair: The market set a high bar given the company's brand momentum, and one-time factors are also in play.

Tariffs and foreign exchange (FX) conversion are additional factors. The silver lining is that the revenue miss and arguably tepid guidance are due to wholesale—not because wholesale is weak, but because of the company's strategy.

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On Holding is positioned as a premium brand able to sustain full-price selling and high margins because of its products and strict inventory control. The company limits distribution and inventory, keeping its end-market retailers from sitting on excess stock and offering discounts, as they tend to do. If this sounds familiar, it should: Retailers like Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) follow similar policies and have sustained high-margin businesses throughout consumer cycles, driving healthy cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. On Holding does not currently return capital to shareholders, focusing on growth instead, but it is on track to do so.

On Holding Plunges on Mixed Results—Full-Price Selling Offsets Volume

On Holding had a solid quarter despite the market's misgivings. One-time factors and a focus on pricing over volume cut into top-line results, as did FX conversion, but the miss was slim: Growth came in at 13.5% as reported for Q2 and 21.6% on a foreign-exchange-neutral (FXN), or constant-currency, basis.

Segmentally, the higher-margin direct-to-consumer business was strongest, growing 26% on a reported basis and 34.3% FXN, while wholesale was more tepid at 12.7% FXN. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) was strongest, up more than 43% on a reported basis, but all segments generated growth. Product growth was also strong, with the core shoe segment up 18.9%, apparel up 56.2%, and accessories up 102.2% FXN.

The strength of On Holding's inventory discipline and channel focus is evident in its margins and earnings. The company widened its margin across all levels, including by approximately 390 basis points at the gross level, and delivered solid bottom-line results despite the top-line miss. Reported earnings of approximately 43 cents per share were slightly ahead of forecasts, and that strength is expected to carry through year-end. Management issued a tepid top-line outlook but improved its margin forecast, setting the stage for accelerated bottom-line growth for the remainder of the year.

ONON Analyst Debate Heats Up: Near-Term Versus Long-Term

Analyst responses are mixed, with commentary highlighting near-term risks and long-term opportunities. The bear case centers on sluggish growth and the potential for growth to become capped, while the bull case praises the full-price-selling model and margin strength.

The takeaway is that no revisions were issued immediately following the release, leaving the existing trends intact. These include steady coverage from a healthy 24 analysts, a Moderate Buy consensus, a bullish bias within the data, and more than 60% upside from critical support levels. ONON may languish in the near term, but its upside potential is robust, setting the stage for an explosive rebound when market appetite is reinvigorated.

Institutional activity suggests downside is limited, with shares trading near the low end of their long-term range. The group owns approximately 36% of the stock and has been aggressively accumulating shares over the trailing 12 months, maintaining a $2-to-$1 pace, including in early Q3. The likely outcome is that institutions continue buying, if not accelerate their purchases, as the quarter progresses because of the value on offer. ONON's current-year price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 18.5x after the premarket earnings decline, indicating that it is undervalued and mispriced relative to its growth trajectory. As it stands, ONON still trades at a premium valuation, but forward estimates point to earnings growth that could bring the multiple down if management executes. That supports the long-term bull case, though it does not eliminate the near-term risk that the stock will remain volatile after a revenue miss.

The post-release price drop is substantial but failed to break the critical support level, leaving the market within its range. Lower lows are unlikely given the growth trajectory, earnings strength, and technical signals, including the stochastic and MACD. Neither indicator reflects an overtly bullish market, but the signals do reveal that buyers are present and ready to advance, provided a catalyst emerges.

ONON has several catalysts in play, including product innovation, the scaling of new technology, aggressive APAC expansion, and high-growth, high-margin apparel. Together, these factors underpin ONON's results today and set it up for acceleration over the coming year. On Holding's biggest risk is consumer headwinds, particularly in the U.S., which are impairing growth.

Lost in Space: Why Aerospace Valuations Are Plummeting Right Now

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 8/1/2026.

The commercial space sector is undergoing a profound and necessary transition. For years, the narrative of interplanetary expansion and global satellite constellations fueled a growth-at-all-costs euphoria on Wall Street. Investors poured capital into aerospace sector ventures based on distant projections, largely ignoring near-term cash burn and the rising cost of capital.

That speculative era is rapidly closing. As borrowing costs remain elevated, institutional capital is pivoting sharply toward strict fundamental discipline. The market now prioritizes balance-sheet solvency, capital-expenditure timelines and clear paths to positive free cash flow over speculative launch manifests. This structural shift was recently catalyzed by a historic repricing of the industry's premier anchor asset.

Crashing to Earth: SpaceX's Trillion-Dollar Reality Check

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Space Exploration Technologies Corp., trading publicly as SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), serves as the undeniable gravitational center of the aerospace landscape. Following its highly publicized initial public offering, SpaceX has faced a violent valuation contraction. The stock has shed about $1.2 trillion from its post-IPO market-capitalization peak, with shares currently hovering near $115. This reflects a steep double-digit discount to the original IPO price.

This downward pressure is rooted in fundamental multiple exhaustion. Following its public debut, SpaceX commanded an astronomical price-to-sales ratio approaching 76. That is a premium traditionally reserved for highly scalable software providers boasting near-perfect margins, not hardware-intensive aerospace manufacturers.

While a significant portion of SpaceX's top-line revenue stems from its Starlink broadband segment, the market is waking up to the inherent costs of maintaining a low-Earth-orbit network. Any margin compression in that delivery infrastructure fundamentally undermines the broader valuation model.

Adding acute technical pressure is the impending Aug. 6, 2026, insider lockup expiration. Approximately 911.5 million shares are slated to enter the tradable float. This represents secondary supply, meaning the anticipated downward price action provides no structural capital injection into SpaceX's balance sheet.

It helps to view the $26 billion in short interest accumulating against the stock not as a complete rejection of the long-term operating model, but rather as a targeted structural hedge by institutional players anticipating the incoming supply shock and the exhaustion of mechanical index-inclusion buying.

Sympathy Sell-off: Contagion Spreads Through the Cosmos

The gravity of the SpaceX repricing has initiated a sympathetic sell-off across the entire pure-play space sector. When an anchor asset undergoes this level of multiple compression, it establishes a lower benchmark for other firms with similar models. The days of trading on private-market valuation halos are over. Investors can see this dynamic playing out clearly with operators like Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB).

Rocket Lab recently demonstrated exceptional commercial traction, reporting impressive 63% year-over-year revenue growth for the first quarter of 2026. In a zero-interest-rate environment, that kind of top-line growth would typically trigger a sustained rally. Today, however, the market is focused primarily on the bottom line. Rocket Lab carries deeply negative net margins of nearly 27%, resulting in trailing-12-month earnings per share of negative 32 cents.

Despite excellent commercial execution and an expanding annual sales run rate of roughly $600 million, Rocket Lab shares have contracted about 37% over the past month. Smaller aerospace equities are now exposed to the harsh reality of their cash-burn requirements, as elevated, risk-averse yields heavily discount distant cash flows.

Fueling the Burn: CapEx vs. Defense Backlogs

Securing government defense contracts is often viewed as the ultimate insulation against macroeconomic headwinds. Rocket Lab recently secured a landmark $266 million U.S. Space Force contract for suborbital launches supporting missile-defense testing. While this is a notable win for the operational backlog, investors need to look closely at how government defense contracts are executed over multiyear milestones.

Revenue recognition is heavily staggered. That $266 million does not immediately flow through the financial statements to offset near-term operating costs. At the same time, Rocket Lab is funneling aggressive capital expenditures into the development of its medium-lift Neutron rocket. This concurrent capital requirement suppresses near-term EBITDA, neutralizing the immediate fundamental benefit of the growing backlog.

However, survival in a high-rate environment ultimately comes down to solvency. Rocket Lab maintains a highly insulated balance sheet, boasting a robust current ratio of about 4.47 and a minimal debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02. This means Rocket Lab has more than four times as many current assets as current liabilities. That level of financial health provides the necessary runway to survive sustained cash-burn cycles, bridging the critical gap between current development costs and future defense-contract payouts.

The New Mission: Profitability Over Pipe Dreams

The current turbulence rippling through the commercial space economy represents a necessary and ultimately healthy transition. The market is aggressively rotating capital away from pure valuation plays and speculative growth narratives, demanding rigorous balance-sheet discipline in their place. The physical space economy remains entirely viable, but the days of infinite cash funding indefinite losses are firmly behind us.

While the impending secondary supply unlock for major players threatens further near-term price declines, it creates a landscape where fundamentals actually matter again. Investors tracking the aerospace sector might prefer to evaluate companies based strictly on their cash runways, manageable debt obligations and realistic timelines to profitability. Those with a higher risk tolerance might consider accumulating positions in well-capitalized space infrastructure providers if they can maintain strong liquidity metrics and secure a steady government backlog amid this sector-wide repricing event.