In my most recent PDB (Paul’s Defense Brief), the topline story described the growing tension between Israel and Turkey, with a potential fault line arising in Syria. Of note, that story reminds us that in 2025 Israel attacked targets in Syria that were being prepared for possible Turkish military bases, thus greatly lowering the threshold for a direct clash between the two regional powers.

The growing possibility of a major conflict between NATO-member Turkey and nuclear-armed U.S. major non-NATO ally, Israel, has been on my radar for a few years.

In part this is due to my familiarity with certain Biblical prophecies pointing to just that scenario. While, as a Catholic, I don’t take biblical prophecy too seriously (it’s more of a Protestant or evangelical thing), I still must admit that the connections between certain prophecies and current Mideast conflict and developments are growing daily.

If nothing else, they provide a different religious lens or prism to view current events.

Until the rise of an Islamist leader, in the form of Erdogan, in formerly secular Turkey, and the rapid transformation of the old Mideast order with the Iraq war, collapse of Assad regime in Syria, and now the U.S.-Israel Iran war, the likelihood of a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel was relatively low.

More likely was a Russian Israeli clash in Syria. Or an Iranian onslaught against the Jewish state. And in years past, Biblical prophecy scholars had seen both Russia and Iran as more likely leading any end times battle against Israel. And both still appeared unlikely until the current open warfare with Iran, and Russian military intervention and bases in Syria.

But over the past few years, and more quickly recently, the idea of a Turkish Israeli war, perhaps accompanied by other regional nations, appears less and less outlandish. And more and more, whether you are a believer, or not, the pieces seem to be falling into place for such a Biblical conflict.

While there is a wide divergence of theories among prophecy experts, many Biblical interpretations now connect modern Turkey to an end-times war against Israel primarily through the prophecy of Gog and Magog in the Old Testament's Ezekiel 38 and 39, with specific ancient regional names tracking to modern Turkish territory. Not that the battle of Gog and Magog is distinct from the more well known battle of Armageddon.

So, what are these biblical passages and nations?

Bible prophecy teachers identify ancient Gomer and Beth Togarmah from Ezekiel 38:6 as corresponding historically to central and eastern regions of modern-day Turkey.

Meshech and Tubal: These ancient regions mentioned alongside Gog are also widely linked by scholars to areas within modern Turkey or its immediate northern borders.

The Northern Coalition: Prophetic interpretations view Turkey as a key participant in a future multi-nation northern alliance against Israel, which textually includes Persia (modern Iran), Cush (Sudan), and Put (Libya).

map

Prophecy interpreters connect escalating political rhetoric between modern Turkish leadership and Israel to the assembly of this biblical coalition.

Scripture texts like Ezekiel 38–39 emphasize that this eventual northward march against a prosperous Israel ends via divine intervention rather than standard military defense, serving to re-establish God's sovereignty. God will supposedly personally defend Israel with natural disasters like earthquakes, rain, and fire to make His name known.

Opinions on how literal or imminent these modern geopolitical correlations remain mixed among theologians and commentators.

One of the big problems with this prophecy is that it states that Israel will be at peace and fully secure, and complacent when this massive attack occurs.

Ezekiel 38 describes a time before the war of Gog and Magog when Israel dwells securely, living in "unwalled villages" at rest and without bars or gates. This passage is interpreted as a period of profound safety, complacency, or peace that sets the stage for a sudden, massive northern invasion.

Prophecy scholars debate whether this security comes from a false sense of geopolitical safety, regional peace treaties, or an overwhelming reliance on their own advanced military defense. But it appears to be a prerequisite that doesn’t yet exist.

This is where a related prophecy of another conflict or scenario that may predate that war comes to play. Proponents of the "Psalm 83 War" theory suggest that a specific ten-part neighboring group (including Edom, Moab, Ammon, and Philistia) will form an alliance to wipe out Israel's national identity.

Some prophecy experts believe this regional conflict precedes the larger, better-known Gog-Magog invasion described in Ezekiel 38–39.

While some claim Psalm 83 is just a prayer, or a plea to God for vengeance on Israel’s enemies, others see it as much more; it reveals that a 10-member confederacy wants to destroy the Chosen People and possess the Promised Land.

“See how your enemies growl, how your foes rear their heads. With cunning they conspire against your people; they plot against those you cherish.” (Psalm 83:2–3)

“Come,” they say, “let us destroy them as a nation, so that Israel’s name is remembered no more.” (Psalm 83:4)

Asaph specifically identifies ten nations or groups that unite to form a coalition for this very purpose:

“With one mind they plot together; they form an alliance against you—the tents of Edom and the Ishmaelites, of Moab and the Hagrites, Byblos [Gebal], Ammon and Amalek, Philistia, with the people of Tyre. Even Assyria has joined them to reinforce Lot’s descendants.” (Psalm 83:5–8)

MAP

Biblical kingdoms around Israel and Kingdom of Judah map.

While these groups are no longer identifiable by their ancient names, Bill Salus, author of Israelistine and Psalm 83: The Missing Prophecy Revealed ascertains the modern-day equivalents / descendants of these coalition members as the following:

• Tents of Edom: Palestinians and Southern Jordanians.

• Ishmaelites: Saudis (Ishmael is the father of the Arabs).

• Moab: Palestinians and Central Jordanians.

• Hagrites: Egyptians (Hagar is matriarch of Egypt).

• Gebal (Byblos): Hezbollah and Northern Lebanese.

• Ammon: Palestinians and Northern Jordanians.

• Amalek: Arabs of Sinai area.

• Philistia: Hamas of Gaza Strip.

• Tyre: Hezbollah and Southern Lebanese.

• Assyria: Syrians and Northern Iraqi.

Most of these people are so-called Palestinians, Hamas, Hezbollah and Arabs, which are already engaged in war against Israel, though Saudis, Egyptians, Iraqis and Palestinian Jordanians (60% of Jordan) are also included. Could these latter members join the current fight against Israel, and then be crushed?

In Psalm 83, the prophet Asaph appeals to God, asking Him to make the coalition members perish in disgrace (Psalm 83:9–18).

In fact, Obadiah, Ezekiel 25–27, 37:10, and Jeremiah 49:1–6 prophesy that these coalition members will indeed perish and be cursed as Genesis 12:3 predicts:

“I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you I will curse; and all peoples on earth will be blessed through you.”

These prophetic verses seem to refer to Israel’s victory in Psalm 83 creating the stunning peace, prosperity and security for Israel that may make Israel ripe for the battle of Ezekiel 38—the invasion of a nine-member coalition, possibly led by Turkey.

Whether these prophetic events occur in the near future, in our lifetime, or at all, we have to admit, the links between these Biblical prophecies and current geo-strategic events are thought provoking. And may provide an added lens though which we can view the chaos unfolding in the Middle East.

The CEO of a prominent Russian defense firm manufacturing attack drones for frontline forces in Ukraine is fighting for his life in intensive care following a car explosion that killed his driver near the Ural city of Yekaterinburg.

Vladimir Tkachuk, head of Uraldronzavod, sustained severe injuries late Tuesday when an explosive device hidden beneath his Mercedes detonated in Bolshoy Istok, just outside Yekaterinburg. The assassination attempt marks the second attack against a key Russian military drone engineer in less than a week, underscoring a growing wave of targeted strikes against figures central to Moscow's wartime defense industry.

EXPLOSION AT BOLSHOY ISTOK AND FATALITIES

Emergency response crews arrived in Bolshoy Istok shortly after the blast destroyed Tkachuk’s vehicle, scattering charred debris across the road.

Law enforcement and emergency services confirmed key details regarding the detonation:

• Executive Hospitalized: Tkachuk was rushed to a nearby medical facility in grave condition, where doctors are fighting to stabilize him.
• Driver Killed: The Mercedes driver, who also acted as Tkachuk’s personal bodyguard, died instantly at the scene.
• Concealed Explosive: Preliminary investigative reports indicate the blast was caused by an improvised explosive device mounted under the chassis of the vehicle.

Russian law enforcement authorities have launched a formal criminal investigation into the bombing, though officials have yet to name suspects or publicly assign blame.

THE 'VAMPIRE' DRONE AND KREMLIN CONNECTIONS

Tkachuk launched Uraldronzavod in 2023 as a private startup, rapidly scaling the venture into a primary supplier of first-person-view (FPV) strike drones for Russian military operations.

The company gained widespread prominence within Russian defense circles for manufacturing the "Vampire" (also known as Upyr or Ghoul) FPV drone system. The inexpensive, low-altitude attack drones are praised by frontline troops for their resistance to electronic signal jamming and heavy deployment in eastern Ukraine.

Beyond manufacturing, Tkachuk cultivated high-level Kremlin relationships and a prominent public profile:

• State Endorsements: Tkachuk directly showcased Uraldronzavod’s line of drones to President Vladimir Putin and Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev during high-profile defense exhibitions.
• Crowdfunding Hub: He operated "Obsessed with War," a heavily followed Telegram channel dedicated to fundraising for Russian combat units and soliciting equipment donations.

PATTERN OF TARGETED ASSASSINATIONS

The car bombing comes amid a visible escalation in attacks targeting defense industry leaders, military commanders, and vocal pro-war figures deep inside Russian territory.

Just six days prior to the attack on Tkachuk, Andrei Cherezov — chief designer of the "Gadfly" (Ovod) attack drone — was shot and wounded by an unknown gunman outside a residential building in Tula.

While Ukrainian authorities made no immediate official comment regarding the Yekaterinburg explosion, Kyiv has previously orchestrated covert operations targeting individuals directly sustaining Moscow’s military logistics and arms manufacturing base. Kremlin officials have repeatedly warned that those supplying equipment to the front line remain prime targets for opposition sabotage networks and foreign intelligence operations.

For over a decade, some of the most decorated retired military officers in the United States routinely sat down for off-the-record meetings organized by an entity tied to Chinese military intelligence.

According to an investigative report by journalist Natalie Winters, former Joint Chiefs chairmen, combatant commanders, and four-star generals regularly participated in the Sanya Initiative — a series of closed-door dialogues between senior American and Chinese military figures that began in 2008.

Who Was in the Room?

The American roster reads like a Who’s Who of Pentagon leadership:

• Gen. Peter Pace (Former Joint Chiefs Chairman)
• Adm. William “Bill” Owens (Former Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman)
• Gen. John Abizaid (Former Central Command Chief)
• Gen. Raymond Odierno (Former Army Chief of Staff)
• Adm. Jonathan Greenert (Former Chief of Naval Operations)
• Gen. Ronald Fogleman, Adm. Timothy Keating, Adm. Joseph Prueher, and Gen. John Keane.

The initiative was funded by the China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) and organized alongside the China Association for International Friendly Contact (CAIFC).

While CUSEF frames the project as an unofficial bridge to "reduce military miscalculation," the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission identifies the CAIFC as a front linked to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) designed for intelligence gathering, propaganda, and perception management.

Access That Reached the Top

What started as a forum for retired officers quickly spilled over into active government channels:

• 2009: CUSEF materials show delegates met with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, and sitting members of Congress.
• Subsequent Years: Meetings moved to venues like the U.S. Naval Academy, featuring active-duty observers and lawmakers.
• 2019: The American delegation met directly with Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission and one of the highest-ranking PLA leaders.

Discussions covered critical national security flashpoints — Taiwan, South China Sea disputes, cybersecurity, and China’s military modernization.

Diplomacy or Political Warfare?

During a 2011 congressional hearing, experts noted that Chinese organizers explicitly aimed to send influential Americans home to "advocate positions" favorable to Beijing.

While participants haven't been accused of unlawful activity, the initiative aligns with Beijing's broader united-front strategy — a tactic that bypasses traditional espionage to cultivate trusted foreign elites (academics, journalists, veterans, and politicians) to subtly shift policy debates from within.

The Huawei Connection

Adm. Bill Owens emerged as one of the initiative's chief American organizers. Concurrently, Owens worked as a consultant for Huawei and co-founded Amerilink Telecom Corp., which sought to bring Huawei equipment into U.S. markets.

Owens publicly defended Huawei against national security concerns, urging Washington to view Beijing more as a friend and rethink Taiwan policy. While Owens maintained his participation was purely philanthropic, critics point to his dual roles as a prime example of how elite diplomacy, commercial interests, and foreign influence operations intersect.

The Takeaway

Beijing's primary strategic threat to the U.S. extends well beyond warships and cyber intrusions. By securing sustained access to former officers who hold deep connections across the Pentagon and defense industry, China built a long-term influence pipeline disguised as standard "Track II" peacebuilding.

The core question isn't whether communication with adversary nations is valuable — it's whether retired U.S. leadership realized they were participating in dialogue, or serving as instruments in a political warfare operation.

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): The new fault line. On March 25, 2025, Israeli aircraft struck set of Syrian airfields. Targets were not Syrian assets, instead they were sites Turkey had surveyed for planned forward military bases. Ankara quietly shelved the deployment.

That is what the Israel-Turkey rivalry looks like: a NATO member and U.S. major non-NATO ally maneuvering against each other in a third country, close enough to require a deconfliction hotline, disciplined enough that neither has yet acknowledged the confrontation for what it is.

The two governments have run a channel through Azerbaijani mediation to prevent accidents. Turkish officials describe it as, "strictly technical," signaling neither normalization nor any convergence. The conditions that made the channel necessary are getting worse, and the outside power that has historically kept this rivalry from becoming a rupture is changing.

When Donald Trump landed in Ankara on July 7, 2026, for NATO summit he became first sitting president to visit Turkey in over decade. He arrived with what aides openly called a "gift bag" for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Trump said U.S. was removing sanctions imposed in 2020 over Turkey's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense system, saying "We don't want to sanction friends."

On F110 engines for Turkey's homegrown KAAN fighter, administration notified key lawmakers it was proceeding. The F-35 remained genuinely conditional, something his administration would "certainly consider." Though Erdogan told reporters Trump had pledged six aircraft and “always keeps his word.”

Israel's reaction was immediate and unprecedented. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that arming Turkey with F-35s would upset the regional balance. He described Erdogan's government as ideologically hostile to Washington and openly threatening to Israel. It was first time Israel had publicly opposed a U.S. arms sale to fellow NATO member.

READ MORE HERE @ ‘THE CIPHER BRIEF.’

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here's the latest defense news from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

THE PDB - Not the President's Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL'S DEFENSE BRIEF:

MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Popularity of President Trump and his policies across number of metrics is sliding, casting doubts over Republican Party’s chances of success in November midterm elections, leaving Trump to govern as a “lame duck” president for his final two years in office.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Pentagon to triple Patriot, quadruple THAAD interceptor production as it seeks to replenish missile inventories through expanded, long-term production capacity.

Navy reclassifying 19 nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines to reflect increased attack capabilities compared to past generations with less lethal munitions package.

Possible is not plausible: How nightmare scenarios hijack unconventional weapons policy. Current conversations surrounding unconventional weapons — chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear — have become so fantastical as to be unserious. As Chinese military fundamentally rethinks biological warfare and Russia continues to use chloropicrin in Ukraine, hypothetical scenarios of AI-enabled bioweapons dominate the headlines.

IRAN WAR

Cargo ship hit by projectile overnight off coast of Oman in Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. and Iran made opposing claims about whether they were holding talks.

Thousands of civilian workers remain stranded on ships at risk of attack by Iran. On one vessel, sailors have been held by Iranian navy for more than three months.

Iranian leadership appears intent on demonstrating its defiance in face of U.S. force while also humiliating “most powerful man in the world.”

MIDDLE EAST THREATS

United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, has entered the final months of its mission while operating in areas that remain under Israeli occupation.

CHINA THREAT

Taiwan and U.S. promote cooperation in answer to Trump and China. Island opens up about U.S. role in training troops for self-defense. Taiwan is opening up about long-concealed U.S. military training while Americans note their cooperation with the island, sending a message to China that ties are strong despite comments by President Trump.

How to stop China from freeriding on American AI. Release of Chinese open-weight AI model Kimi K3 has compressed a year’s worth of unresolved AI policy debate into single news cycle.

China’s AI Blitz Creates ‘Death Zone’ for Rival US Model Makers. U.S. chip sanctions have failed to slow AI development in China, with flurry of new releases and a “DeepSeek death zone” appearing to force new AI models to either beat Chinese model on price or performance.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

Ukraine’s fire point CEO on how it’s making missiles and drones to 'destroy the Russian empire.'

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia spark fire at warehouses belonging to Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries. Since mid-July, Ukraine has struck more than dozen warehouses owned Russia’s largest online retailer, as Kyiv expands its long-range campaign to target Russian commercial infrastructure.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea resort and annexed Crimea peninsula killed 11 people, while another explosion attributed to Ukraine killed five people in Moscow restaurant.

‘America’s finest people are right here’: Ukraine pays tribute to U.S. fighters buried in Ukraine’s Alley of Heroes at historic cemetery.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

Denmark begins extended military conscription in response to Russia. Around 1,600 Danish military recruits began country’s new extended conscription, embarking on 11-month service period as Denmark accelerates its defense build-up driven by Arctic security pressures and war in Ukraine.

As Europe seeks role in future security guarantees for Ukraine, Poland is preparing to host first military drills for so-called “Coalition of the Willing” with British and French forces, as it also eyes NATO support for border defense.

SPACE THREATS

Space Force chose 15 companies to compete to build out its advanced live and simulated test and training range— high priority for service officials who say they lack equipment and infrastructure to prepare Guardians to operate in increasingly contested space environment.

US MILITARY

Pentagon wants to expand surveillance of communications made by individuals incarcerated in Military Correctional Complex.

As focus shifts to Western Hemisphere, Army has approved service-wide wear of Jungle Tab upon completion of Jungle Operations Training Course.

After specialist contacts congressman, Army admits that due to high employee turnover and staffing shortages, 4th Infantry Division soldiers got ‘sub-optimal’ [CRAP] food.

Navy orders commands to submit monthly facial hair religious and medical waiver accountability reports.

Dissatisfied with quality of engines for its fighter jets, Air Force is looking for new engines — and perhaps new manufacturers.

Meet Drone Round, the company supplying Marines with shotgun anti-drone ammo.

END of PDB

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