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See the stock Wall Street doesn't advertise

Good investing,

Marc Lichtenfeld
Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Seagate Technology Stock Surges as Earnings Beat Silences AI Doubters

Authored by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 7/29/2026.

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) has recently been caught in a brutal sell-off, with shares tumbling more than 20% as investors fled anything tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Even after that pullback, the stock remains up more than 170% year to date, leaving it more exposed than most as concerns mounted that the AI-driven storage boom could be losing momentum.

Seagate's Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, however, offered a resounding answer to the doubters. Not only did the company comfortably beat expectations for the latest quarter, but its guidance for the period ahead also blew past Wall Street's forecasts, reinforcing the idea that the storage boom—and Seagate’s rally—still have plenty of room to run.

Elon’s big $266,000 per second purchase (Ad)

Elon Musk bought Super Bowl ad time at $266,000 per second - something he has never done before. 125 million Americans watched, but Whitney Tilson, former manager of a $200 million hedge fund, says most investors missed what it actually means.

With 1 in 3 Super Bowl viewers using buy-now-pay-later services and 40% of Americans carrying more credit card debt than savings, Tilson believes Elon's message reveals a major economic current - and a clear signal for where smart money should be positioned.

Watch Tilson's free presentation to see what he thinks you should do now

The market’s initial verdict says it all. After a sharp pre-earnings sell-off, the stock’s positive reaction to the report suggests investors may have been too quick to write off the AI storage trade.

Seagate’s Results Show the Storage Boom Is Still Intact

The headline numbers left little room for argument. Seagate delivered earnings well ahead of consensus as revenue climbed nearly 50% year over year, also coming in comfortably above estimates.

The reason behind that strength is exactly the one the bulls have been pointing to all along, and CEO Dave Mosley echoed it. He credited robust cloud data center demand and disciplined execution, along with durable long-term demand for the mass-capacity storage that Seagate specializes in.

In other words, the explosion of AI is creating a seemingly relentless need to store enormous quantities of data, and Seagate is well positioned to capture that demand. Just as importantly, the company’s newest high-capacity technology is allowing it to scale shipments profitably.

That combination of surging demand and an improving product mix is precisely what has underpinned the margin expansion story investors have been so excited about.

The Technology Behind Seagate’s AI Storage Edge

Behind all of this is the cutting-edge technology that has quietly become Seagate's biggest advantage. Its latest generation of hard drives uses a new recording method that packs far more storage onto each disk, allowing the company to deliver the enormous capacities AI data centers require without a matching increase in cost.

This is what separates Seagate from a business that’s simply selling more of the same product. Every leap in density means more storage shipped from the same footprint and at a better margin, which could benefit the stock.

Seagate’s Guidance Strengthened the Bull Case

As strong as the headline numbers for the quarter were, it was the company's outlook that truly caught the eye. Seagate guided to revenue of around $4.1 billion for the current quarter, comfortably ahead of the $3.78 billion analysts had expected.

The earnings guidance was even more striking, with the company calling for roughly $7.30 in non-GAAP earnings per share, compared with a consensus estimate closer to $5.63.

This is the crux of why the report will be so reassuring for anyone worried that the storage rally has run its course. Seagate is not just riding a temporary spike in demand. It's telling investors, in the clearest terms available, that this momentum is continuing to accelerate.

Seagate’s Rally Still Has to Prove It Can Last

The analyst community had been overwhelmingly positive going into the report, with firms such as Wells Fargo and Citigroup raising their price targets in recent weeks, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Citigroup's fresh $1,300 price target is particularly noteworthy given the substantial upside it implies from recent trading levels.

Between those updates and the stock’s positive post-earnings reaction, it’s easy to see why the overall consensus rating on the stock is a Moderate Buy.

For investors weighing it all up, Seagate’s latest earnings report has done exactly what it needed to. The storage boom that has powered its remarkable run through the first half of the year shows no sign of running out of road. The margin story is playing out as the bulls predicted, and management's guidance points to more strength ahead.

Considering the stock is still trading well below its recent high, you can’t help but feel this post-earnings window could be a golden opportunity to take advantage.

Palantir’s Earnings Setup Puts Its AI Growth Story Back on Trial Again

Authored by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 7/30/2026.

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Aug. 3. If history is any guide, it will be a strong report, and PLTR is likely to fall the following day.

That has been the pattern the last three times the company reported earnings. In each case, Palantir failed to recapture its prior high and encountered resistance at a declining 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Elon’s big $266,000 per second purchase (Ad)

Elon Musk bought Super Bowl ad time at $266,000 per second - something he has never done before. 125 million Americans watched, but Whitney Tilson, former manager of a $200 million hedge fund, says most investors missed what it actually means.

With 1 in 3 Super Bowl viewers using buy-now-pay-later services and 40% of Americans carrying more credit card debt than savings, Tilson believes Elon's message reveals a major economic current - and a clear signal for where smart money should be positioned.

Watch Tilson's free presentation to see what he thinks you should do now

All of which is to say that PLTR has been, and will likely continue to be, a poor trade. That’s true for both long and short investors. On at least 15 occasions in 2026, PLTR has moved by at least 5% in a single trading session. Traders on the wrong side of those moves got hurt.

Nevertheless, after breaking decisively below $130 in late June, PLTR is up roughly 6%. That’s significant at a time when many technology stocks are under pressure. It could be evidence that investors are beginning to buy into a compelling bull case, but confirmation would require a close above its 50-day SMA, something the stock hasn’t managed since its late-June breakdown.

Focus on the Business Model More Than History

Palantir is expensive by virtually every traditional metric. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Alex Karp recently remarked that Palantir has more business than it can handle and will reach $15 billion to $18 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in the next two years.

That would make many discounted cash flow (DCF) models for PLTR comically inaccurate. However, many investors will look back to companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO). At one time, both companies had lofty valuations. Buying and holding required immense patience—14 years for MSFT and 25 years for CSCO—before the companies were re-rated.

This is where it’s important to compare apples to apples. Cisco was as dominant in its niche as Palantir is now. But it didn’t have Palantir’s moat.

Microsoft’s growth has come from the sheer breadth of its enterprise. Microsoft isn’t one thing; it has many levers from which to generate revenue and free cash flow.

By contrast, Palantir is still largely a story about two customer types: government agencies and a growing but concentrated list of large commercial accounts. That’s both the risk and the opportunity.

Palantir’s Foundry and AIP platforms create deep switching costs once a customer’s data ontology is built out, arguably creating a stickier moat than Cisco’s hardware ever had. But Palantir doesn’t yet have Microsoft’s diversification across cloud, productivity software, gaming and advertising. A slowdown in U.S. government spending or a stumble in commercial AI adoption would hit Palantir’s growth story far harder than a similar setback would hit Microsoft’s.

What Could Go Wrong?

Whenever PLTR has experienced a significant pullback, buyers—specifically, institutional investors—have stepped in. Some of that buying is programmatic, since Palantir is now part of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. But “smart money” wouldn’t be blindly buying the stock if it truly believed the valuation story.

Instead, the recognition is that if the bull market remains in place, PLTR is likely to have a tailwind, and institutions will be willing to buy any dip. That’s not a prediction that a bear market is coming anytime soon. However, that’s where the bear case would have the most bite. Such price action would affect the entire market and would not be an indictment of any specific stock.

There’s also a company-specific risk from competition. Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), along with model developers like OpenAI and Anthropic, are pushing deeper into enterprise AI orchestration—the same territory Palantir has claimed as its own.

For now, however, that’s a future concern. There’s no evidence in Palantir’s earnings reports that it’s losing market share to these companies.

Will PLTR Clear Its Valuation Hurdle?

Will history repeat itself? The simple answer is that it could. The business is strong and is likely to report strong growth. At the same time, even after a pullback of approximately 30% in 2026, Palantir still trades at a hefty premium of 105 times forward earnings and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of around 66 times.

Palantir will remain volatile and may therefore not be suitable for every investor. However, the long-term bull case for PLTR remains in place; analysts remain bullish, institutional buying outpaces selling by about 3:1 and, more importantly, the company is likely to show another quarter of strong growth.

Palantir’s business is executing better than almost every software company on the market today. But price and value are two different things, and the last three earnings reports suggest the market wants more value for the price. Investors chasing PLTR into its Aug. 3 report should size their positions with that pattern in mind, regardless of which side of the trade they’re on.