Notable Quotes of the Day

“We now have a name for our worst-case election scenario. It’s called a ‘red mirage.’

The term describes an election outcome in which early results appear to favor President Trump, but then tip toward a decisive victory for Joe Biden as more mail-in ballots are counted. It was coined by Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Hawkfish—the political data firm founded by Michael Bloomberg—who warns in a new interview with Axios on HBO that this nightmarish scenario is not only possible but likely according to some of the firm’s modeling.

In one version, Trump could see a projected 408 electoral votes on election night, compared to 130 for Biden, but that’s with only 15% of the mail-in votes being counted, Axios reports. The tide could then turn to favor Biden as we count more votes—polling data shows Democrats are more likely to vote by mail.”

– Christopher Zara, Fast Company 

“We shouldn’t overdo it. Hawkfish is presenting a scenario in which an apparent 408-130 win for the president on Nov. 3 eventually becomes a 334-204 Biden victory. That’s not impossible, but it’s a stretch. Many states count their absentee ballots rapidly; the California pattern of taking weeks to get it done is relatively rare. It’s possible that normally quick states will collapse this year given unprecedented use of mail voting, but most have been preparing for that possibility and are unlikely to be completely overwhelmed. As Politico’s Steven Shepard points out, large media organizations will also have exit polls, and while those are hardly perfect, the people who run them have had many cycles to get used to early and absentee voting.”

 – Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg

Election Updates

• Joe Biden will deliver a speech in Wilmington, Delaware, focused on school reopenings and the coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday. Prior to his remarks, Biden will receive a briefing from education leaders in Wilmington on the subject.

• Biden is airing a new ad in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin featuring clips from a speech he gave on Monday condemning rioting and Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

• Trump is traveling to Wilmington, North Carolina, for an official White House event on Wednesday to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II.

• Mike Pence will also campaign in North Carolina on Thursday, participating in an anti-abortion event in Raleigh and accepting an endorsement from the Southern States Police Benevolent Association.

• Arizona resident Rasean Clayton is suing to block Kanye West from appearing on the Arizona ballot as an independent. The lawsuit says West did not submit paperwork stating he is not a member of a recognized political party. West is registered as a Republican. 

Flashback: September 2, 2016

The Federal Bureau of Investigation released notes from its July interview with Hillary Clinton regarding her use of a private email server while secretary of state.