Dear Reader,

Russia and China have America trapped.

Along with Indonesia, they control nearly 80% of the world's nickel supply.

Together, these countries produce roughly 316 times more nickel than the United States.

That's not merely an economic problem.

It's a national-security emergency.

Nickel is critical for batteries, aerospace, jet engines, robotics, construction and the power systems behind America's AI buildout.

We cannot afford to remain dependent on hostile foreign suppliers.

And I believe the Trump administration knows it.

That's why I'm watching one tiny American company so closely.

It controls the only primary nickel operation in the country capable of helping solve this problem.

Washington has already poured more than $137 million into supporting its operations.

Tesla has signed a binding six-year agreement with it.

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If I'm right, this obscure stock won't remain obscure much longer.

Click here to learn more before Washington reveals its next move.

Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU,

Dr. Mark Skousen
Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club

3 Refiners Benefiting From Oil Volatility and Tight Fuel Supply

Authored by Dan Schmidt. First Published: 7/29/2026.

Another month, another potential ceasefire agreement. Iran and the U.S. agreed to temporarily halt military operations in hopes of reaching a deal, sending crude oil prices plummeting at the start of the week. But while a ceasefire can stop fighting in a day, it can’t rebuild lost capacity in a quarter. With a slew of key energy earnings on deck, the market will soon be forced to price the difference between an oil trade and a refining trade.

Refiners Aren’t Crude Oil Proxies; They’re Claims on Capacity

One mistake investors often make is assuming the entire energy trade rises and falls in tandem with crude oil prices. Exploration and production companies sell crude oil to refiners, who turn it into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other finished products. For the producer, crude oil prices are a revenue line, and the more it can charge for the raw product, the more profit it retains. But crude is a cost line for the refiner, making the relationship between oil prices and downstream companies much more ambiguous.

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Prices for WTI and Brent crude usually crowd the headlines, but crack spreads are an even more important metric for downstream oil companies. The crack spread is the difference between what a refiner pays for raw materials and the price at which it sells refined products. If oil prices drop while gasoline or diesel prices remain flat, the spread widens and puts more profit in refiners’ pockets, even if they don’t raise prices.

The most commonly cited crack spread is the 3-2-1 spread, which attempts to measure a refiner’s average yield from turning three barrels of crude oil into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel (i.e., heating oil). As this chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows, crude prices and crack spreads don’t always move in the same direction:

If the price of crude oil drops faster than the price of gasoline and diesel, crack spreads widen and refiner profit margins increase. This distinction is being borne out in the market: the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE) has been drastically outperformed by the more targeted VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (NYSEARCA: CRAK) over the last six months.

Capacity shortages will outlive any ceasefire, especially when these agreements are tenuous at best. The IEA’s July oil market report highlighted not only four-year highs in refining spreads but also the slow return of refining capacity and exports to post-war levels.

Global refinery output was cut by 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q2 2026, and U.S. inventories are sitting at multiyear lows. Rebuilding 4.5 million barrels of daily output can’t be done via a weekend press release, which is why the Q2 reports from the following three refiners will be crucial for guidance updates.

3 Under-the-Radar Refiners Outperforming Their Larger Peers

Large-cap refiners like Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) have returned more than 80% year to date (YTD), but these gains aren’t leading the refining industry.

Several smaller firms with limited analyst coverage have soared more than 100% YTD, thanks to their varying financial and geographic exposures. Here are three refiners to watch as Q2 earnings reports begin to roll in.

Delek Holdings: Crack Spread Sensitivity Leads to Supersized Returns

Last-place teams often say, “There’s nowhere to go but up.” The same is true for Delek U.S. Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK), a mid-cap refiner operating more than 300,000 bpd across Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. In fiscal 2025, the company lost $23 million on nearly $11 billion in revenue, resulting in an annual earnings-per-share (EPS) loss of 38 cents.

This trend finally reversed in Q1 this year, when the company posted EPS of 8 cents versus an expected loss of $1.42—a massive turnaround despite flat year-over-year (YOY) revenue. Net crack gains were the primary driver of profit. The company earned a net crack of $10.17 per barrel of crude oil (bbl) from Q2 2024 through Q1 2025; that figure grew to $14.62 per bbl from Q2 2025 through Q1 2026, boosting refining margins from $1.96 to $7.53 while operating expenses increased by just under 5% over the same period.

Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for Aug. 5, and the market will be watching to see whether the company boosts its full-year throughput and free cash flow projections.

PBF Energy: Locations Near Isolated Supply Routes Boost Earnings Potential

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) benefits from its convenient refining locations, giving it proximity to some of the country’s hardest-to-supply areas. The company’s operations span from Delaware and New Jersey to Louisiana and California, linking it to both East Coast Brent and the supply-starved West Coast, with processing capacity of more than 900,000 bpd.

Though the Q1 numbers were weak, including a larger-than-expected loss of 88 cents per share, the company received three price target increases in the last few weeks, including a new Street-high target of $71 from Goldman Sachs.

Despite a 125% YTD return, the stock is still cheap compared with its peers, trading at 5.5 times forward earnings and 0.24 times sales. PBF is the next refiner to report Q2 results, with a conference call scheduled for July 30. The big news investors will be watching is an update on the timing of the Martinez recovery and the amount of realized capture the company receives against the benchmark spread.

Par Pacific: Access to Strapped Asian Markets Offers Profitability Beyond Peers

If PBF Energy has good locations for its refineries, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PARR) has the top-floor penthouse in the center of town. The company has the smallest capacity of the three stocks at just under 220,000 bpd. Still, its footprint in Hawaii, the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest gives it easy access to West Coast markets and the struggling Asian market.

Asian oil markets are dependent on Persian Gulf flows because of reduced Russian capacity and a lack of domestic supply. But with Asian supply now being pulled toward Europe, the import market for Par Pacific products has risen swiftly.

The company missed on EPS but beat on revenue in Q1 2026. Still, the EPS result turned a 94-cent-per-share loss in Q1 2025 into a 78-cent-per-share gain in Q1 2026. Revenue also grew 4.5% YOY, and management signaled strength to investors by repurchasing $28 million of stock during the period.

Only 13 analysts cover the stock, but 11 rate it a Buy, resulting in a Moderate Buy consensus rating and an average price target of $81.57. However, the most recent price target updates from Goldman Sachs and TD Cowen are $92 and $100, representing respective upsides of 13% and 20% from current levels.

3 Humanoid Robot ETFs to Ride a Speculative Trend

Submitted by Chris Markoch. Posted: 8/3/2026.

Much of the debate surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in 2026 is focused on data centers. That makes sense because AI requires significant infrastructure. However, accurately forecasting AI demand also requires considering where the technology is headed.

One example is the smartphone, which seemingly changed the Internet’s use cases overnight. A similar shift could occur in robotics as humanoid robots enter the conversation. Markets and Markets estimates the humanoid robot market will reach $5.41 billion in 2026. The firm projects that the market will reach $50.27 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.1%.

On May 21, Washington broke its own rule (Ad)

On May 21, 2026, a federal bank's board voted unanimously to lend roughly 3 billion dollars toward a gold mine on American soil, breaking decades of precedent. Congress raised no objections.

The deposit holds a second metal that China has banned from export to the U.S., and it's the only domestic reserve of its kind. Company filings cite direct partnership with the Department of War, a phrase rarely seen in gold mining disclosures.

See the full details behind this rare gold and critical metal project

However, picking individual stocks carries outsized risk at a time when many robotics companies have high valuations but little to no earnings. For many investors, a better option for gaining exposure to the sector is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Not surprisingly, investors have several options that address different areas of the robotics market.

Why Humanoid Robots Could Be AI's Next Major Growth Story

Investing is always easy when looking through the rearview mirror. Today, the growth opportunity in NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is obvious. But in 2019 and 2020, when analysts were recommending NVDA because of the coming artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, many investors dismissed the stock.

One reason is that the future can be difficult to envision, let alone invest in. The second is that even when that future seems inevitable, the timing is never certain.

When it comes to humanoid robots, the launch of Optimus may make that future easier to envision. However, the timing remains unclear. Elon Musk is exceptional at selling a vision, but the goalposts for producing electric cars at scale have moved many times.

Shifting goalposts are a good reason to own sector ETFs. These funds hold a basket of stocks, reducing single-stock risk. Plus, at any given moment, at least a handful of those stocks could be performing well.

The list of companies actively producing humanoid robots would be too small to support an ETF. However, investing in robotics-themed ETFs provides exposure to many adjacent areas, including AI stocks. Here are three options for investors to consider.

A Diversified Bet on Robotics and Automation

As its name suggests, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ: BOTZ) provides exposure to a group of U.S. and non-U.S. stocks. In fact, over two-thirds of the fund’s holdings are in companies outside the United States, including its largest holding, Swiss company ABB Ltd (OTCMKTS: ABBNY), with NVIDIA in second place.

The fund has a mandate to invest in companies benefiting from industrial and non-industrial robotics applications, including autonomous vehicles. The fund’s fact sheet highlights humanoid robots as an innovation-driven catalyst that could help address growing labor shortages caused by an aging demographic and compounded by reshoring efforts.

In the 30 days ending July 28, BOTZ is down about 10%, pushing the ETF into negative territory in 2026. Still, for investors seeking diversification across AI technology and geography, the fund is a solid choice.

CHAT ETF Focuses on the AI Behind Humanoid Robotics

Humanoid robots require training, which is a long-term growth driver for generative AI. That’s the focus of the Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (NYSEARCA: CHAT). The fund launched in 2023, and its holdings focus on companies involved in generative AI and related technologies.

This is an actively managed fund and, as such, comes with a higher-than-average net expense ratio of 0.75%. However, the CHAT fund has delivered a gain of over 50% in the last 12 months, making the higher expense ratio easier to digest.

The fund’s top three holdings are NVIDIA, SK hynix (NASDAQ: SKHY), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). In contrast to the BOTZ ETF, approximately 57% of the CHAT ETF’s holdings are in U.S.-based companies.

AIPO ETF Invests in the AI Infrastructure Powering Humanoid Robots

If large language models are the how of training humanoid robots, data centers are the where. In fact, humanoid robots are part of the answer to the question, “Why do we need so many data centers?” That’s why many investors have invested heavily in AI infrastructure stocks.

That’s the focus of the Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ: AIPO). The fund debuted in July 2025. It has more than $865 million in assets under management and an expense ratio of 0.69%.

In June 2026, the fund was trading more than 70% above its initial opening price, although it pulled back slightly in July. GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is the fund’s largest holding, accounting for more than 9% of the portfolio.