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THE 10 STATES TO WATCH
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
2020 has ignored a litany of rules about presidential campaigning, all of them overridden by a global pandemic. But one of America’s quadrennial standbys seems to have survived: It still seems Labor Day will mark the final, intense sprint to the election.
As the presidential campaigns ramp up with the finish line in sight, we thought it would be useful to focus on the 10 states that will likely determine this election.
Call them swing, purple or battleground, these are the key states both campaigns will focus on in the last two months of the race:
The O-O-T States
Six states voted for Barack Obama twice, in 2008 and 2012, and then voted for Donald Trump in 2016. (Thus our heading “O-O-T” — Obama-Obama-Trump.)
They are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. The first four listed share another trait: they are Electoral College juggernauts, among the top 10 states for number of delegates. Together these six states account for 99 electoral votes. Trump won by 77 electoral votes in 2016.
What else do these states have in common? Five of the six are part of the Rust Belt, which was hit by industrial decline in the last quarter of the 20th century.
Most of these states had tended to vote for Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections, with three — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — favoring Democrats in six straight presidential elections. Trump broke those streaks in 2016.
Florida is a different story. It is more diverse and generally trended more Republican in presidential elections. Barack Obama was the first Democrat since F.D.R. to win there twice.
No candidate can realistically win the White House without a majority, and ideally a super majority, of these six.
But these are not the only potentially decisive states this year.
An O-R-T State: North Carolina
We know, we are straining this acronym idea past reason. But as reason does not always govern, let us use that to our advantage.
Two states voted for Obama in 2008 then for Romney in 2012, then Trump in 2016: North Carolina and Indiana.
Indiana, home state to Vice President Mike Pence, may be considered a tougher hill to climb this year.
But North Carolina, where a toss-up Senate seat has incumbent Republican Thom Tillis fending for his political life, is considered a toss-up in the presidential race as well.
Its 15 electoral votes mean it nearly carries the same weight as Michigan (with 16).
The Clinton, but only once, states
Two states considered deep red just a few years ago are now looking like potential toss-ups in the presidential race: Georgia and Arizona.
The Peach State and the Grand Canyon State have voted almost unfailingly Republican in presidential elections since 1980, with a single exception for each. Georgia voted for Bill Clinton in 1992. Arizona voted for Clinton in 1996.
The Biden campaign has made Arizona one of its top priorities, seeing a potential opening. But Georgia is the bigger prize, with 16 electoral votes to Arizona’s 11.
Both are rated as pure “toss-up”’s by the Cook Political Report.
Texas
The nation’s second biggest electoral powerhouse is on the board this year as potentially vulnerable. We know, we know — Democrats have sung this song for many years, pointing to increasingly blue suburban areas around Austin and Houston.
And Republicans have continued to win presidential and Senate races.
But with the Cook Political Report placing Texas and it’s 38 (!) electoral votes in its second most vulnerable category (“leaning” Republican), we can’t ignore this state in a year when more surprising things have happened.
FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz
Politics production assistant
White House Announces $1 Billion Plan to Create AI, Quantum Institutes -- Aug 26. Administration officials say the 12 new research institutes, funded by federal agencies and private sector partners, are meant to ensure U.S. technology remains competitive with the rest of the world. Why it matters: The institutes will focus on conducting early research in areas the private sector might not have otherwise invested, but that are considered critical to the country’s competitive position with countries like China, which is adopting AI at a faster rate than the U.S. and European Union. The White House also sees the institutes as a way to promote diversity by partnering with historically black colleges. - The Wall Street Journal
Top election officials warn election systems being 'scanned' for vulnerabilities by adversaries -- Aug 26. Officials stressed that the probes had been mostly unsuccessful,and that federal and local governments were taking strong measures to combat those efforts come November. Why it matters: While a Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency official emphasized that the agency is “way ahead” of where it was in 2016 in terms of visibility and awareness of potential threats to America’s election infrastructure, the official emphasized that “uncertainty” amid the coronavirus pandemic has created new opportunities for “adversaries to divide us,” and that voters should be vigilant about the election information they consume. The official also warned the country should be prepared for election results to be finalized later than usual. -- The Hill
Republicans scramble to hold once-reliable North Carolina -- Aug. 24. Northern transplants to North Carolina have caused a demographic shift, giving Democrats new hope in this historically conservative southern state. Why it matters: Several battleground states key to Trump’s victory in 2016 are now leaning toward Biden. In order to win reelection, Trump needs to hold onto at least some of them, as well as keep a grip on states like North Carolina that generally vote Republican. -- LA Times
Reps. Malinowski and Riggleman introduce bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon -- Aug. 25 The resolution urges people, regardless of their political affiliation, to get information from authoritative sources, and comes only a week after President Donald Trump said he appreciated the group for their support of his administration. Why it matters: At least seven QAnon adherents won Republican congressional primaries this year, including one who is likely to win the general election in November. -- Politico
USDA commits to trade aid for lobster industry using coronavirus coffers -- Aug 26. Trump had directed the USDA to establish a bailout fund for lobster fishers hurt by higher Chinese tariffs, similar to the one already created for farmers hit by the trade war, but the department missed the Aug. 24 deadline. Why it matters: While the lobster industry will be allowed to apply for aid through the existing Coronavirus Food Assistance Program established for farmers in April, offering only coronavirus aid ignores the larger impact of China’s tariffs that are still in place. --The Hill
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff
Deputy senior politics producer
It’s primary day in Massachusetts, where Rep. Joe Kennedy is trying to oust incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey. The Kennedy political dynasty has been almost continuously represented in Congress since John F. Kennedy was elected to the House of Representatives in 1946.
Our question: What is the longest stretch of time there has been no member of the Kennedy family in either house of Congress? And who were the Kennedys on either side of the gap?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: At the Republican convention of 1860, Abraham Lincoln became the party’s nominee, but he was not chosen on the first ballot. The convention was brokered, with no candidate having a majority after the first two ballots. Where was the 1860 Republican convention held?
The answer: Chicago
Lincoln secured the nomination on the third ballot and went on to win the presidency with about 40 percent of the popular vote. He didn’t win a single state in which slavery was legal, and his election set the table for the Civil War. On Dec. 20 of that year, South Carolina seceded from the Union, before Lincoln was inaugurated.
Congratulations to our winners: Bob Schmid and Tim Smith!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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