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Volume 18, Issue 32
“[Hamas] will only give up [light] weapons when there is no need for these weapons. This means they will only hand them over to a Palestinian leadership that assumes control of a state after Israel ends its occupation.”
---Azmi Keshawi, a Palestinian from Gaza, quoted in Al Jazeera
** Upcoming EMET Webinar
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View our Past Webinars ([link removed])
Cauldron of Terror - Hamas, Israel and the World - Five Hundred Days in Gaza
Wednesday, August 5th
12:00 PM ET
Mark Silinsky was a senior intelligence analyst for the Department of War, where he worked for 40 years. He is also affiliated with Haifa University. He most recent book is entitled “Cauldron of Terror: Hamas, Israel and the World—500 Days in Gaza.” He is also currently working on a book on “Islamofascism”.
Mark also served as a research professor at the U.S. Army War College and as a research associate at the National Intelligence University. Graduating Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Southern California, Dr. Silinsky received an M. Phil. in international relations from Oxford University, under the supervision of Sir Michael Howard; and took a Ph.D. in international development from Tulane University. He also graduated from the Naval War College and the National Defense University. Dr. Silinsky is the author of four books on the Middle East and international relations.
** This Week's Featured Articles
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This past week featured much opining on the future of Lebanon. Here at EMET, we don’t always agree on the likely futures of the Middle East, and that’s a good thing. Sometimes our analysis leads each of us to different conclusions, and it’s important to give our meeting partners multiple perspectives rather than forcing ourselves into one opinion for the sake of unity. The issues we deal with every day are nuanced, discussion and debate come with the territory. This week we discussed the prospect of a new Lebanon, one free from the grip of Hezbollah. There is reason to be optimistic about this. The Lebanese government - Democratically elected and sitting in Beirut under the guide of President Aoun - has made the largest steps they’ve ever taken to work towards combatting Hezbollah in the south. This includes repeated talks with the Israeli government, the first time in history we’ve seen these two governments talk to each other. They’ve signed an MOU, pledging to support each other in the
fight to defeat Hezbollah and create a comprehensive plan. The IDF has pushed back up to Beaufort Castle, the farthest north Israel has been inside Lebanon in decades. The IDF did this in dazzling speed with minimal (but not 0) casualties. Hezbollah’s benefactors in Tehran are running out of money, the war with the US depleting stockpiles and making it overall very difficult to supply and pay their fighters. Not to mention, the Al Sharaa government (while facing and facilitating a host of other issues in Syria too long for this discussion) has done its best to break the Shia crescent in the north Levant, stopping a majority of the weapons smuggling coming into the terror group over land. All of this gives us room for optimism, the belief that this is the best chance Israel and Lebanon have ever had - and will ever have - to defeat Hezbollah once and for all.
Yet optimism is not alone here. There is reason to hope, but also to despair. As we all could guess, Hezbollah refuses to go gently into that good night. They still mount a fight against the IDF, trying to break their will with sporadic attacks whose only goal is Israeli casualties. They have mostly stopped their rocket barrages, but not entirely, and the northern Israeli communities have yet to find peace. Their worldwide network of illicit activities and financing is not broken so easily as a blockade or crackdown can stop. Politically, their leadership is not backing down, threatening another civil war if the Lebanese government does not waver from their promises. The fear of another civil war looms large in the psyche of the Lebanese government and its people, who faced decades of destruction in the civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990 and killed thousands of Lebanese citizens. Hezbollah’s promise gives pause to Beirut, and to the prospect of an LAF(Lebanese Armed Forces)
mobilization to fight in the south. While the LAF has the manpower and weaponry to combat the remnants of Hezbollah’s fighters, the fear - one not unfounded - is that the Shia LAF members who sympathise with the Hezbollah cause would rather join than fight them. President Aoun still might choose the peace of tyranny over the chaos of freedom. So, this is the best chance the Lebanese people might ever have, but that does not mean it is a good chance. Those of us inclined to optimism say the former, pessimism the latter. Through all that, one thing unites us: the belief that Hezbollah must go for Lebanon and the Levant to truly be free.
** News
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Israel cannot accept a Gaza deal without Hamas truly disarming ([link removed])
JNS
Trump: Iran ‘going to get a beating’ ([link removed])
JNS
How Iran is widening its pressure campaign to force US concessions ([link removed])
Reuters
Iranian news agency Fars: 'There is no agreement to open Hormuz' ([link removed])
Y Net
Latest Gaza Peace Plan Runs Up Against Reality ([link removed])
Wall Street Journal
Israel pushes back on Gaza deal reports: Insists on removal of all weapons from Gaza before withdrawal ([link removed])
Y Net
Hamas distributing personal weapons to operatives to avoid total disarmament amid BoP deal ([link removed])
Jerusalem Post
Disarm, Verify, Withdraw. The Only Path Forward for Gaza ([link removed])
The Medialine
US strike called off after Qatar says Iran will reopen Strait of Hormuz ([link removed])
Israel Hayom
Ra’am Party chief refuses to condemn Hamas as terror group ([link removed])
JNS
We Live in ‘a New World of Counterhistory’ ([link removed])
Wall Street Journal
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EMET is a Washington, D.C. based, non-partisan think tank and policy shop with an unabashedly pro-America, pro-Israel stance.
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