Dear MoveOn member,

I'm Amy White, MoveOn's Director of Analytics. I don't write to you often,
but in the wake of last week's sickening Republican National Convention, I
wanted to reach out to share the details about a program my team is
running to put an end to Donald Trump's authoritarianism on November 3.

As the RNC confirmed last week, the GOP strategy to win is to use their
billionaire donors to flood battleground states with fearmongering, racist
ads and messaging to try to rally their base toward Trump.

We could never match their spending dollar for dollar—but luckily, we
don't have to. Because here's the truth: The most effective and impactful
campaign strategy is not sending generic, inflammatory messages far and
wide, it's actually highly targeted outreach to small groups of voters who
are most likely to tip swing states blue.

That's where my team comes in.

We are building models to identify "high-potential voters," with the goal
of turning out 100,000 people who would otherwise not vote across the 14
most important battleground states—a goal that, if we're able to achieve
it, could clinch the election for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.



I'll lay out all the details below, but I need to ask you now: Will you
chip in $3 a week to help us power this game-changing, all-or-nothing
campaign until the very last vote is counted? (MoveOn will bill your
weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will
contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or
cancel your weekly donation.)

[ [link removed]- ]Count me in.

[ [link removed]- ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.



You might be asking: What is a "high-potential voter," and how are you
going to reach out to them?

Great questions!

We define "high-potential voters" as being voters and potential voters who
fit one or more of these criteria:

* Voters who cast a ballot for Barack Obama in 2012 but did not vote in
2016.
* Voters who cast a ballot for a third-party candidate in recent
elections.
* Voters who cast ballots in the 2018 midterms but did not vote in 2016.
* New voters who turned 18 after the 2016 election.
* Naturalized citizens who have become eligible to vote since 2016.
* And in all of these categories, we are focused specifically on younger
voters and voters of color.

Through extensive research and statistical modeling, we've found a
whopping 7 million voters who fit into these categories spread across the
14 most important battleground states.

Donald Trump is president today because of 10,704 votes in Michigan,
46,765 votes in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 votes in Wisconsin.^1 That means
if we can get just over 1% of those 7 million people to cast ballots for
the Biden/Harris ticket, Trump will almost certainly lose this time
around.

One percent. That's it.

So how are we reaching out to these voters? Using powerful, personalized
messaging tailored to each individual voter.

This week, for example, we're testing 18 different messages about the
critical importance of defeating Trump to 850,000 voters across the
battleground states to learn which messages are most effective at
convincing voters to sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to
help three of their friends or family to vote too.

My team and I will be able to use the data we gather from this test to
target the most powerful messages to millions of individual voters based
on their location, age, political leanings, and more.

We used a similar method in 2018 to send persuasive videos to potential
voters in important districts and states, and in the end, that program
helped to secure tens of thousands of votes for Democrats and, in turn,
helped to flip control of the House.

This program is even bigger—and far more important.

But it's expensive. We have to purchase thousands of ads, send millions of
text messages, create customized videos, and build statistical models—and
then do it over and over again through Election Day.



That's where you come in, John. Can you chip in $3 a week to
help us reach millions of high-potential voters with customized messages
that are proven to be effective at turning out voters? (MoveOn will bill
your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and
will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify
or cancel your weekly donation.)

[ [link removed]- ]Count me in.

[ [link removed]- ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.



The newest polls since last week's RNC show that the race is tightening
between Trump and Biden, and although these polls should serve as a shock
to the system and a reminder that we have to push as hard as we can over
the next nine weeks, my team and I were prepared for them, and we built
this program to be effective in exactly this scenario.^2

We always knew that this election would be close, and that—just like in
2016—victory could come down to a few thousand votes spread over just a
handful of states.

Our high-potential voter program was specifically designed for a close
election. That's what makes it special. We are focused on voters who would
otherwise stay home on Election Day but who could be the difference
between winning and losing on November 3.

I've run the tests. I've seen the numbers. I know this can work.



So I'm asking you now to take any fear or anger or anxiety you're feeling
and help me to turn it into action by chipping in $3 a week to power this
game-changing program. Will you chip in? (MoveOn will bill your weekly
donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact
you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your
weekly donation.)

[ [link removed]- ]Count me in.

[ [link removed]- ]No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.



Thanks for all you do.

–Amy White

Sources:

1. "Donald Trump will be president thanks to 80,000 people in three
states," The Washington Post, December 1, 2016
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2. "Trump Pulls Closer to Biden After RNC," Morning Consult, August 29,
2020
[link removed]-





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