AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most
AEI This Week
AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most
FAMILY STRUCTURE
The Hidden Factor in Student Success
August 1, 2026
More than race or class, family structure is a predictor of child outcomes, but the federal government leaves this critical factor out of much of its public data reporting—especially on education. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, drawn from a new AEI report ([link removed] ) , Ian V. Rowe and Brad Wilcox highlight ([link removed] ) steps the Department of Education can take to correct this shortcoming.
family-structure ([link removed] )
The United States has 24–36 months before the Chinese AI industry escapes its compute constraints and can start exporting at scale to global markets. In a new working paper, Ryan Fedasiuk and Satvik Pendyala think through ([link removed] ) how the US can best allocate its own constrained compute resources in this window to entrench an “American AI technology stack” in key allied and swing markets capable of resisting Chinese influence.
Rapid technological advancement and shrinking populations are pushing every military in the world toward embracing lethal, autonomous weaponry. In a new AEI report, John G. Ferrari and Dillon Prochnicki provide ([link removed] ) a comprehensive assessment of how the US should approach acquiring, developing, and implementing these capabilities.
Most prospective college students think tuition is unfairly high, as the cost of college has risen more than the cost of virtually every other consumer good and service. In a new report, Preston Cooper explains ([link removed] ) how price opacity, driven by expanding government financial aid, has given colleges the market power to charge students substantially more.
August marks the 30th anniversary of the enactment of the 1996 welfare reform law, which attacked government dependency by strengthening work requirements and ending individual cash entitlements. Matt Weidinger, who was a primary congressional staff author of the legislation, surveys ([link removed] ) the legislation’s remarkable success in increasing earnings for low-income Americans while substantially decreasing welfare caseloads and child poverty.
Debt, Deficits, and Tariffs
The Trump administration has enacted sweeping new tariffs in a moment when the US is on a fiscal path of unsustainably growing public debt. How will tariff revenue affect this trend? In a new paper for the National Tax Journal, Kyle Pomerleau and Ali Melad review ([link removed] ) current tariff policy, survey its historical antecedents, and estimate its budgetary effects. Under several plausible tariff and fiscal policy scenarios, debt as a share of GDP could range from 161 to 212 percent by 2056. Ultimately, tariffs cannot raise enough revenue to meaningfully improve the United States’ long-term fiscal trajectory, largely because of their narrow and elastic tax base and because the use of executive authority, rather than legislation, undermines economic and revenue certainty.
More from AEI
RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY
History Holds a Crucial Key in the Navy’s Fight Against Drones ([link removed] )
Anand Toprani and Michael Dennis | RealClearDefense
No Air-Conditioning? It’s a European Thing; You Wouldn’t Understand. ([link removed] )
Nicholas Eberstadt | AEIdeas
Anthropology Jumps the Shark ([link removed] )
Frederick M. Hess | Education Next
El Niño Means Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes—but More Activity Worldwide ([link removed] )
Roger Pielke Jr. | The Honest Broker
Google Finds AI Everywhere Except in the Productivity Numbers ([link removed] )
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
PODCASTS AND VIDEOS
Gen Z Is Ditching Sex. They Might Be onto Something. ([link removed] )
Christine Emba et al. | The Opinions
Breaking the Wave ([link removed] )
Chris Stirewalt et al. | The Commentary Magazine Podcast
Why Are Americans Not Having Babies? Nicholas Eberstadt Explains. ([link removed] )
Danielle Pletka et al. | What the Hell Is Going On?
Small yet Beautiful in Communist China ([link removed] )
Jonah Goldberg and Audrye Wong | The Remnant with Jonah Goldberg
Megan McArdle ([link removed] )
Ben Sasse et al. | Not Dead Yet
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
The U.S. munitions shortfall is a bipartisan failure of both the executive and legislative branches that has been decades in the making. The United States has the technological and industrial might to fix it. Now it needs political will and strategic discipline.
—Dustin Walker ([link removed] )
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