Our annual state legislative competitiveness report + previews today’s Massachusetts primaries
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Welcome to the Tuesday, September 1, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

* Eight percent fewer candidates are running for state legislative office in 2020 versus 2018
* Democratic U.S. Senate race headlines Massachusetts’ statewide primaries
* Ballotpedia is tracking 21 local police-related ballot measures in nine states

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** EIGHT PERCENT FEWER CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING FOR STATE LEGISLATIVE OFFICE IN 2020 VERSUS 2018
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We’ve finished crunching the numbers on our 10th annual state legislative elections competitiveness ([link removed]) research. Over the next four days, I’ll bring some highlights and interesting statistics from this report that we debuted in 2010.

The number of candidates running for state legislative seats is down eight percent this year compared to 2018. A total of 12,280 major-party candidates are running in 2020, a 1,109-candidate decrease from last year. The number of Democratic state legislative candidates decreased 12.3% and Republican candidates decreased 3.7% from 2018 to 2020

[Total candidates]

Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: 

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how many incumbents filed for re-election 

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how many incumbents have contested primaries

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how many seats are contested between a Democratic and a Republican candidate in the general election. 

These factors are then averaged to create a Competitiveness Index for every state. 

NATIONWIDE, STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS THIS YEAR HAVE AN OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX OF 33.4 OUT OF 100. The Competitiveness Index for 2018 was 36.0. The 2020 elections are more competitive than 2016 (32.1) and the decade average (33.0).

The state with the highest composite score and, by extension, the most competitive state legislative elections this year is Michigan, followed by West Virginia, New Hampshire, California, and Florida. The five states with the lowest composite scores are Massachusetts, Delaware, Arkansas, Rhode Island, and Illinois.

[Most competitive elections]

[Least competitive elections]

Our annual report contains lots of historical data, including analyses of open seats and the numbers of incumbents facing competition in party primaries. I can’t wait to share some of this really neat data with you in the Brew this whole week, but if you can’t wait to dive deeply into the numbers, you can click the link below.

Learn more ([link removed])

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** DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATE RACE HEADLINES MASSACHUSETTS’ STATEWIDE PRIMARIES
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Today is primary day in the Bay State with voters deciding primaries for one U.S. Senate seat, all nine U.S. House districts, and all 200 seats in the state legislature (40 in the Senate and 160 in the House). WE’RE ESPECIALLY WATCHING THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR THE U.S. SENATE, IN WHICH INCUMBENT SEN. ED MARKEY FACES REP. JOSEPH KENNEDY III.

The candidates, both of whom support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, have argued over their progressive credentials.

Markey served in the U.S. House from 1976 until he was elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election after John Kerry was confirmed as Secretary of State. Markey went on to win a full term in 2014. He has emphasized that he was an original co-sponsor of Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) Medicare for All bill and that he co-authored the Green New Deal resolution with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Kennedy was first elected to the U.S. House in 2012 and is the grandson of former Senator and U.S. Attorney General Robert Kennedy. He says he has led on issues such as affordable healthcare, immigration, mental health, and civil rights and that he was an original co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Kennedy says the state needs a "new generation of leadership with the energy and courage to fight for change."

According to Dr. Eric Ostermeier at Smart Politics ([link removed]) , no U.S. Senator from Massachusetts has lost in the primary since the direct election of Senators began in the state in 1916. National Journal Associate Editor Alex Clearfield tweeted ([link removed]) that before this year, the last time a Democratic U.S. House member challenged an elected incumbent Senator who didn’t switch parties was in New Jersey in 2008 when Rep. Rob Andrews challenged Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Lautenberg won that primary with 59% of the vote. 

The last elected Republican U.S. Senator defeated for his party’s nomination was Bob Smith (N.H.) in 2002, who lost the GOP primary to then-U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu.

_The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, _and_ Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball_ all rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic.

LEARN MORE→
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** BALLOTPEDIA IS TRACKING 21 LOCAL POLICE-RELATED BALLOT MEASURES IN NINE STATES
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Last month, I wrote ([link removed]) about the local police-related ballot measures voters will decide in November’s general elections. These measures were all proposed in the wake of George Floyd's death on May 25. Since my last update, three more have been added to that list, bringing the total up to 21 measures in 16 jurisdictions in nine states. 

Of the 21 measures, seven are on the ballot in California while four will be voted on in Pennsylvania. THE MOST COMMON POLICY AREA LINKING THE BALLOT MEASURES WAS THE DUTIES AND POWERS OF POLICE OVERSIGHT BOARDS. Ten of the ballot measures addressed police oversight. Other topics include police and criminal justice funding, staffing levels, law enforcement training, and the public disclosure of police camera footage involving deaths and serious injuries. 

Below are summaries of the three new measures we’re tracking:

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Monument, Colorado, Sales Tax Increase to Fund Police Department Measure (November 2020) ([link removed])

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Voters will decide whether to increase the local sales tax from 3% to 3.5% to fund the Monument Police Department.

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Glynn County, Georgia, Abolish County Police Department Measure (November 2020) ([link removed])

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The Georgia state Legislature referred a measure to the county ballot to abolish the county police and transfer the remaining resources and funds to the sheriff’s department. On February 23, Ahmaud Arbery Jr. was shot and killed in Brunswick, Georgia, a city in Glynn County. The Georgia Bureau of Investigation arrested three men on charges including malice and felony murder in Arbery's death.

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Kyle, Texas, Proposition D, Police Department Oversight Charter Amendment (November 2020) ([link removed])

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Voters in Kyle will decide on a charter amendment that would authorize the city council to review the police department's policies and procedures and establishes a committee to review the city’s police department.

[States with local police measures]

For a full list of police-related measures appearing on the November ballot, click the link below.

_Know of a local ballot measure missing from this list? Email me at [email protected]._

Learn more→ ([link removed])
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
 

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