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All the best,

Michael Robinson
Director of Tech Strategies
Weiss Ratings

3M's Redemption Arc: Can Q2 Earnings Change the Narrative?

Reported by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 7/21/2026.

3M (NYSE: MMM) delivered a beat-and-raise quarter before the market opened on July 21. The initial reaction from investors was bullish, with the stock surging 9% after trading began. The earnings beat was more of the same for a company that has taken many steps to improve efficiency over the past 12 months. The revenue beat was what investors had been waiting for, making the bear case harder to defend.

The best part of the Q2 2026 earnings report may have been the company’s forward guidance. 3M raised its full-year guidance for revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow. The EPS estimate of $8.80 to $8.95 and FCF guidance of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion would represent growth of around 10% and 20%, respectively—both ahead of the company’s average over the last few years.

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That’s where the short-term and long-term outlook for MMM diverge. Most formulas model significantly less growth, but averages are backward-looking, which is the core of the issue. MMM stock has surged, and it looks expensive compared with its history. Investors, however, tend to look toward the future.

Industrial and China Demand Powered the Quarter

3M's adjusted organic sales grew 5.4% year over year. That growth was concentrated in the parts of the business investors care about most.

• Safety and Industrial, the company’s largest segment, posted adjusted organic growth of roughly 8% for the quarter, led by strength in industrial adhesives and tapes and personal safety products.

• Transportation and Electronics grew organically by nearly 6%.

• The Consumer segment was the lone soft spot, posting a modest organic decline.

That's a familiar pattern for 3M this year: industrial and electronics demand is doing the heavy lifting while its consumer division remains sluggish.

Geographically, China stood out. Adjusted organic sales grew by double digits for the quarter. That’s meaningful given how much of the bear case on industrials this year has hinged on weakness in China demand. If that strength holds, it undercuts one of the more persistent worries about 3M's growth runway.

Adjusted operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 24.9%. That continues a trend of efficiency gains that management has been building toward for several quarters. It's not a dramatic jump, but consistency here matters more than a single big number.

3M also used the report to highlight a handful of partnerships aimed at newer growth areas: a deal with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) to deploy 3M's optical technology in AI data centers, a long-term agreement with Airbus on aircraft insulation, and an AI-powered customer service tool called Ask 3M. None of these will move the needle on this quarter's numbers, but they're the kind of forward-looking additions management likes to point to when making the case that 3M is more than a legacy industrial name.

3M Is Rebuilding Its Dividend After the 2024 Cut

3M cut its dividend in 2024 after spinning off its healthcare business. The cut was a bigger story than the payout being reduced by half. 3M was a Dividend King, a title that made MMM a set-it-and-forget-it choice for income investors.

Many of those investors walked away from 3M after the cut, but the company has been taking steps to win them back. 3M increased its dividend in 2025 and again in February. The payout of 78 cents per share is well below the pre-cut level of $1.51, but it’s up more than 10% from the post-cut level of 70 cents per share.

MMM Stock Tests Key Resistance After Earnings Breakout

3M's chart tells two stories at once, and today's earnings reaction is forcing them to collide. MMM has spent the last three months in a textbook ascending channel. That can be seen in higher lows in May, higher lows again in June, and now a fresh push toward the top of that channel. That's the bullish structure. Buyers have been in control since the April low near $145.

But zoom out further, and MMM has also just completed a round trip. The post-earnings surge to near $172 puts the stock back at the same level it touched at its February high. The last time it tested that level, it failed and fell nearly 20% into April. That history is why this retest matters more than a typical breakout attempt.

The difference is the catalyst. This earnings breakout is being fueled by a genuinely strong quarter across the board. That's a fundamentally different setup from February's failed breakout, which happened without a comparable catalyst. This time, buyers have a reason to defend the highs.

RSI Signals Overbought Conditions, But the Trend Remains Bullish

The RSI reading of 70 puts MMM squarely in overbought territory, and the stock is trading well above its 50-day moving average near $156. That gap between price and trend typically resolves in one of two ways: sideways digestion or a pullback toward the moving average.

Neither outcome breaks the bullish structure. A pullback that holds above the channel's rising trendline, likely in the $160-$165 zone, would reinforce the higher-lows pattern rather than undermine it. That's the healthiest version of "overbought": a pause that resets momentum without giving back the structural gains.

Will Analyst Upgrades Keep 3M Stock Moving Higher?

Overall, this was a good quarter for 3M, but much of the company’s growth appears to be priced in. Investors looking to get involved may want to wait for a better entry point, which could come in the days following the earnings report.

That said, overbought readings after an 8% gap almost always cool off. The real question is whether Wall Street analysts follow the earnings beat with upgraded price targets. The post-earnings spike has pushed MMM slightly above its consensus price target of $169.43.

Sell-side re-ratings, not chart patterns, are usually what turn a one-day earnings pop into a sustained re-rating of the stock. Until that happens, this breakout is unconfirmed, resting on a single catalyst rather than a broader shift in how the Street values 3M.

Defense Earnings Show Readiness Now and Modernization Ahead

Reported by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 7/25/2026.

Several of the nation's top defense contractors reported earnings against a backdrop of the U.S. conflict with Iran, which appears to be entering a new phase. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are working to secure funding for the military's immediate needs while grappling with the Trump administration's longer-term goal of modernizing the armed forces.

This gives investors two stories to consider. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) all posted strong quarters this week. But the numbers tell only half the story.

Elon Musk on His New Invention: “An Infinite Money Glitch.” (Ad)

Jeff Brown and Marc Chaikin - two investors who spotted Nvidia a decade ago - are now pointing to Elon Musk's latest AI patent as the catalyst behind their next major call.

They say a market pattern with a 100% historical track record is converging with this new breakthrough by end of month. The last time conditions aligned like this, investors had the chance to turn $10,000 into as much as $350,000 in roughly 12 months.

Brown and Chaikin have released the full details for investors who want to get ahead of it.

See Jeff Brown and Marc Chaikin's full analysis and next steps here

One story focuses on current readiness, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint and U.S. forces remain engaged with Iran. The other centers on modernization: the decade-long buildout of next-generation aircraft, interceptors, and autonomous systems.

Investors watching this earnings season need to weigh both. A company can look strong on paper while still being weighted toward one side of the story. Here's why investors can trust these three defense contractors in either scenario.

Lockheed, Northrop, and RTX Build Record Backlogs After Earnings

All three contractors delivered the kind of quarter that makes a bull case easy to write. Lockheed Martin posted $20.1 billion in sales and $7.94 in earnings per share (EPS). Its book-to-bill ratio reached 3.2x, indicating that new orders outpaced shipments by more than three to one. Backlog reached $230 billion, and management raised full-year sales guidance to $79.75–$81.75 billion.

Northrop Grumman leaned even more heavily on its backlog story. The company reported a record $105 billion backlog, up 17% year over year, alongside $10.9 billion in quarterly sales. Reported EPS fell 6% to $7.68, but that decline was purely an accounting artifact tied to last year's gain from the Training Services divestiture. Adjusted earnings guidance still moved higher.

RTX stole the show on growth. Adjusted sales climbed 16% organically to $24.7 billion, adjusted EPS jumped 21% to $1.89, and backlog surged 22% to $289 billion. The standout figure was $43 billion in new awards this quarter, nearly $20 billion of which came from the Raytheon segment alone.

Missile Defense Demand Supports Near-Term Growth for Defense Stocks

The Strait of Hormuz has been an active flashpoint since February, and the recent collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has renewed pressure on missile defense and munitions. Not every defense stock is equally exposed to that story, and the differences matter for near-term revenue.

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman form the backbone of the missile-defense supply chain. Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control segment grew sales 19%, driven by PAC-3 and THAAD volume. Northrop manufactures THAAD interceptor rounds and posted a record $35 billion Defense Systems backlog tied to Sentinel and missile-defense demand.

RTX carries the munitions-replenishment story through its Raytheon segment. The company disclosed more than $5 billion in new contracts for GEM-T effectors and the upgraded Patriot interceptor, with deliveries headed to Ukraine, Poland, and the U.S. government. Raytheon's book-to-bill ratio reached 2.42, signaling that demand is outpacing even expanded production capacity.

Both RTX and Northrop flagged capacity expansion this quarter. That's a signal that demand, rather than contracts, is now the binding constraint on how quickly these companies can respond to a live conflict.

Military Modernization Creates Long-Term Growth Opportunities

Beyond the current crisis sits a slower-moving story: the multiyear modernization of the U.S. military. This is where each company's flagship programs diverge most, and where longer-term investors should focus.

Northrop's marquee program is the B-21 Raider, the next-generation stealth bomber. Management specifically cited an agreement to accelerate B-21 production capacity as a long-term value driver, positioning the company for a deterrence mission designed for the 2030s and beyond.

Lockheed straddles both timelines. Its F-35 program continues to ramp, although some of this quarter's gain reflects the absence of prior-year losses rather than new demand. More telling is the growth of the Next Generation Interceptor, the homeland missile shield designed to succeed today's PAC-3 and THAAD systems.

RTX's modernization bet centers on autonomy. Collins Aerospace's Sidekick software was down-selected for the Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, the drone-wingman concept shaping the future of air combat. Pratt & Whitney also secured certification for its GTF Advantage engine this quarter.

What Defense Investors Should Watch After Earnings

The clearest signal from this earnings season is that backlog composition matters more than backlog size. A backlog full of interceptors and munitions reflects exposure to what's happening in the Gulf today. A backlog full of next-generation platforms reflects exposure to a modernization cycle that is still years from peaking.

What's notable is that all three companies are growing on both fronts simultaneously. That dual exposure, rather than a bet on one story over the other, is likely why Lockheed, Northrop, and RTX all raised guidance in the same week.