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NDN News - Fighting the Bully and Other Notes on the 2020 Election
Notes on 2020 –
Polling Update– Our basic attitude here is to wait and see. We expect that many polls will be released in the next two weeks, giving us a fair clearer picture of where things stand.
What we do know from the data available to us is that Biden still retains a very large lead and Trump remains remarkably unpopular. This morning the 538 polling average sits at 50.2%-42.2%, about where it’s been since early June. The GOP had to be disappointed with its low Convention ratings, and this ABC News-Ipsos poll was full of bad post-Convention news for Trump. Biden’s favorability went up significantly during the course of the two conventions, climbing from 39 to 46%, while Trump’s fell from 32% to 31%. On messaging and programming, the Democratic Convention got a 53/42 fav/unfav, while the Republicans got a dismal 37/59. It’s one poll but the findings were overwhelming bad for Republicans.
It’s our expectation that Trump will in the coming weeks get up to 45%-46%, so we should expect some movement from Trump as he is 4 points below his 2016 result, and 3 points below where the GOP landed in 2018. 45-46 should be considered Trump’s floor. The number to watch then isn’t the spread but Biden’s number nationally and in the states. If he gets to 51-51.5% nationally he is starting to put the race away; in the states, he needs just 50% plus 1, and even in what was a very favorable round of CNBC polling for Trump last week, Biden was at 49/50 in most of the battlegrounds. So Biden is close – a point or two nationally – from being able to take control of the race.
Our expectation is that this week the Biden-Harris campaign will announce a historic fundraising haul, and will use those new resources to launch a new round of very aggressive advertising in the states. Our belief is that those ads need to be 2/3rds positive now, and work to get him up to that 50-52 range. NDN believes the Biden-Harris would be wise to consider using these new resources to expand the battlefield, both geographically and demographically, and truly test the capacity of the Trump campaign tactically and financially. Young people have to become a priority for all Democrats in the closing months, as they are leaning towards Democrats as never before, and recent polling suggests many remain undecided. Like all voters, Democrats shouldn’t expect the votes of young people unless they ask, forcefully (see this recent CIRCLE research about the need to touch young people).
Fighting The Bully– There’s no question that the Democrats should remain on offense on their areas of greatest strength right now – COVID, economy/build back better/climate, health care, racial reconciliation/unity. But there are two other areas emerging which need aggressive engagement in our mind – the unrest, and Trump’s extraordinary cheating, including the return of Russian interference in our politics on behalf of the President.
Today the former Vice President will be taking on the issues around domestic unrest head on. In excerpts released by the campaign he will say: “This president long ago forfeited any moral leadership in this country. He can’t stop the violence – because for years he has fomented it. He may believe mouthing the words law and order makes him strong, but his failure to call on his own supporters to stop acting as an armed militia in this country shows you how weak he is. Does anyone believe there will be less violence in America if Donald Trump is reelected?” If the Biden-Harris campaign continues down this path I believe they can win this argument with the public in the days ahead.
As for cheating and Russia’s return, we began to see Biden-Harris engage this issue head on yesterday. But more must be done here to explain to the American people that this President won by cheating in 2016 and is doing it again; and that by cheating he is betraying the very democracy he hopes to lead again. It is no small matter.
Best,
Simon, Georgia, and the rest of the NDN team
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