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AST SpaceMobile Stock Sinks as SpaceX Fallout Rattles Space Sector

Written by Jessica Mitacek. Publication Date: 7/17/2026.

Space stocks are being battered this week, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is no exception. Shares of the Midland, Texas-based company have plummeted more than 18% since the market closed on Wednesday, July 15, with souring investor sentiment in that corner of the market appearing to be the primary culprit.

With SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) now trading below its IPO price, the Elon Musk-led firm’s poor performance has reverberated throughout the industry. Key rivals—including space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband provider AST SpaceMobile, launch services provider Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), and commercial lunar exploration services provider Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR)—have posted losses ranging from 18% to 26% over the past five days.

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For ASTS shareholders, elevated volatility has become the expectation. However, this recent decline builds upon a more concerning, prolonged downtrend that has seen the stock slide nearly 60% since hitting its all-time high (ATH) on May 28.

AST SpaceMobile Is a Secondhand Victim of Both SpaceX’s Fallout and Success

On Thursday, July 16, shares of SPCX traded around 42% below their post-IPO high. That performance reflects the broader, ongoing pullback in CapEx-intensive technology stocks, which has had an outsized impact on the AI infrastructure trade.

For space stocks, however, the pullback has taken the form of an outright correction. As a D2D competitor to SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile has suffered some of the steepest losses as shifting sentiment has coincided with the company’s poorly received offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, which come due in 2034. That has led to speculation that the capital-intensive nature of its business could be a concern moving forward.

With SpaceX faltering, the spotlight has also turned to AST SpaceMobile’s balance sheet.

The company is forecast to spend roughly $3 billion this year and next, with positive free cash flow not expected until at least 2028.

Scaling to this extent is capital-intensive for AST SpaceMobile. In Q1, that contributed to a year-over-year (YOY) net income decline of more than 292%, despite YOY revenue growth of more than 1,952%.

As a result, earnings per share (EPS) have suffered. In Q1, diluted EPS came in at negative 66 cents, missing the negative 23-cent consensus estimate and marking the company’s worst performance since it went public in April 2021.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starlink D2D dominance is fueling concerns that AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird deployments are failing to keep pace with the company’s 2026 launch target of putting 45 satellites into low Earth orbit by early next year.

A New AST SpaceMobile 2x Leveraged ETF Fails to Attract Inflows

While there are plenty of fundamental reasons for investors to be concerned, another is the poorly timed debut of a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF).

On June 23, Leverage Shares launched nine new 2x single-stock leveraged ETFs, one of which was the Leverage Shares 2X Long ASTG Daily ETF (NASDAQ: ASTG). According to a press release, “the new Cboe-listed ETFs are tailored to target 200% exposure to the daily performance of their underlying stocks.”

As a result, since reaching its post-debut peak on July 2, the ETF has doubled ASTS’ losses and is down around 63%. The poor timing of its issuance has discouraged inflows into the fund and added another sell-the-news headwind for AST SpaceMobile, much to the benefit of short sellers (more on that below).

Wall Street’s Outlook Remains Rightfully Reserved

Apart from being the foremost competitor to SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile’s most distinguishing hallmark is perhaps its exceptionally high volatility, as demonstrated by its current beta of 2.69.

For speculative investors who are comfortable with the company operating at a sizable loss—both presently and into the foreseeable future—ASTS’ crash from its ATH may represent an ideal entry point. The stock’s $87 consensus price target implies nearly 58% upside from current prices.

That may partly explain bullish buying among institutional investors. In Q2, inflows of $110 million easily surpassed outflows of $1.77 million, building on the momentum seen in Q1, when inflows of $329 million exceeded outflows of $19 million.

For Wall Street’s pundits, however, AST SpaceMobile’s heightened volatility remains a red flag.

Overall, ASTS receives a consensus Reduce rating. Of the 11 analysts currently covering the stock, three assign it a Sell rating, six assign it a Hold rating, and just two assign it a Buy rating. Current short interest remains concerningly high at more than 21%, or 64.7 million shares of the approximately 388 million shares outstanding.