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Friends, I’m a geek.
It’s true. Most people who’ve met me or who get this Substack aren’t even a skosh surprised by that admission.
From manufacturing policy to jobs reports to voter data, I’m a gal who loves getting into the numbers. So I was especially interested when fellow numbers nerd Nate Silver published a whole deep-dive on our Senate race.
Nate Silver said, “Stevens has some late momentum,” and cited a couple of polls that show we’re leading the primary.
Let me nerd out for a minute and walk you through what he found, because I want this grassroots team to understand what’s happening, especially with the primary in just 11 days. You deserve to see the numbers I’m seeing and know how I’m thinking about all of this.
A new poll has us up by 7 points. The Glengariff Group polled our primary for The Detroit News and found us leading 48 to 41. That’s good news because we’re leading (obviously), but it’s also important to note that this is an independent, A-rated pollster, and a 7-point lead.
Mallory McMorrow’s supporters are joining this grassroots team in large numbers. When Mallory suspended her campaign, the question was where her folks would go. And I want to say something directly to those folks, because I know some of you are reading this: Welcome. I know it’s tough to have your candidate drop out, but I’m glad you’re here. Mallory has been an important voice, both in this race and in the State Senate. She made me a better candidate, and I look forward to working with her in the future to build a stronger Michigan.
The endorsements are coming. And I’m grateful. Senator Gary Peters, the man who’s held this seat for 12 years, endorsed me to succeed him. And now Congressman Jim Clyburn – one of the most respected leaders in our party, a man who knows a thing or two about tough fights — has endorsed this campaign too. I’m truly honored beyond words.
The general election numbers are popping. Looking at the highest-rated pollsters in Michigan, I’m beating MAGA Mike Rogers, while my primary opponent trails him. And that’s similar to what The Cook Political Report said: “If El-Sayed wins the primary, Democrats have little chance of holding the seat.”
That’s the state of the race, friends. Not according to me. According to the numbers and the people whose entire job and reputation is about trying to get this stuff right.
But polls can only take you so far. They aren’t a prediction or a prophecy.
These polls tell us we’re headed in the right direction. But polls don’t vote. Newsletters don’t vote. And numbers nerds only get you so far.
People vote. And Michiganders are voting right now – ballots are filled out at kitchen tables across this state and going back in the mail as I type this. We are 11 days from the primary on Aug. 4. A day when so much will be decided. Which party has the best chance of controlling the Senate. Whether we can put a real check on Donald Trump. Whether we fight for reproductive freedom, Social Security, affordable gas and groceries, health insurance. Everything.
I don’t want to wake up on Aug. 5 with a single regret, and I don’t want you to either. I want us to be able to say we put absolutely everything on the line when it mattered. That’s what “late momentum” really is. It’s not a permission slip to sit back, it’s an assignment. A goal. A chance to show what this grassroots team is about.
Here’s my ask: Will you help me build on this momentum? If you’re able, chip in $20 or whatever you can to help us finish these last 11 days with our foot on the gas. Knocking on more doors, making more calls, getting more air time for our ads, and more of everything that got us here.
Let’s give Nate Silver something to write about on Aug. 5. Let’s tell the story of how our late momentum surged and how we’re now on track to keep Michigan blue and flip the Senate.
I’m ready to get that newsletter.
More soon.
With grit,
Haley
A personal note from Haley 👋
I’m a lifelong Michigander and the daughter of small-business owners. I’ve spent my career fighting for Michigan’s working families – and now I’m running for the U.S. Senate to keep standing up for the people I love.
But here’s the truth: Senate control could come down to Michigan. And Trump and his megadonors know it. That’s why they’re gearing up to spend tens of millions to defeat me and hand this seat to a MAGA Republican.
I need your help to fight back. This race will be one of the most competitive – and expensive – in the country, and I’m counting on grassroots support to win.
If you’re with me, will you chip in today?
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