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Hi John — Mark Jacob here, contributor at COURIER.

Prediction markets are perfect examples of how Donald Trump and the
oligarchs who conspire with him are building a nation of chumps, a society
of suckers.

They're online betting parlors by another name, and they're notoriously
vulnerable to insider trading. Trump wants his own agency to have
exclusive authority over them, with no regulation by the states. His
eldest son has financial ties to the top two. And CNBC and CNN both have
financial deals to promote Kalshi while treating its numbers as news.

I wrote this week about the insider bets, the fake influencer wins, and
the networks getting paid.



[ [link removed] ]Before you read on, I hope you'll consider supporting COURIER. When the
biggest business networks are taking money from the companies they cover,
independent journalism is what's left.



Thanks for reading,
Mark Jacob
COURIER Contributor

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Trump and prediction markets are building a society of suckers
The convicted felon in the White House loves shadowy financial schemes
that benefit insiders
By Mark Jacob

Prediction markets are perfect examples of how Donald Trump and the
oligarchs who conspire with him are building a nation of chumps, a society
of suckers.

These markets are online betting parlors by another name. They allow
people to wager on a wide variety of questions, from "Next prime minister
of Ethiopia?" to "Where will 'Janice STFU' by Drake rank on the Billboard
Hot 100 chart dated Aug 1, 2026?"

Prediction markets are sometimes described as a testament to "the wisdom
of crowds," but such wisdom has its limits. The markets are notoriously
vulnerable to insider trading, which means people who control events or
have private knowledge of what will happen can make a killing.

Trump, who loves gray-area, funny-money opportunities like cryptocurrency
and prediction markets, has made his position clear. He wants his
Commodity Futures Trading Commission to have "exclusive authority" over
prediction markets, with no regulation by the states. "We cannot have SCUM
like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the
rules!" Trump wrote in May.



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Trump's CFTC chairman, Michael Selig, doesn't look like much of a
watchdog. This month, he praised prediction markets as "an interesting
hedging tool" that helps companies "manage risk." And the president's
eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is a booster, too. He has financial ties to
the top two prediction markets, serving as an investor and unpaid adviser
for Polymarket and a paid adviser for Kalshi.

Major news media are also in cahoots. CNBC and CNN treat Kalshi's numbers
as if they're news, and both have financial deals to promote the company.
CNBC sometimes fails to disclose that relationship when reporting on
Kalshi, according to an excellent report by Aaron Rupar and Judd Legum.
CNBC says it discloses its financial link only when it is "directly
relevant to the story."

CNN's deal with Kalshi is exclusive, which means CNN can't cite other
prediction markets in its coverage, a network source told The New Yorker.
If the coverage of Kalshi's wagers were actually news instead of just
sneaky product placement, why wouldn't CNN occasionally cite other
prediction markets, too?

While CNBC and CNN continue this gross perversion of their journalistic
mission, other news outlets are doing fine jobs of exposing the ways these
markets make our country more dishonest and exploitative. Among the most
damning reports:

* About 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket collect about two-thirds of the
profits, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.
* In a stunningly dodgy tactic, Polymarket created "clone" sites on
which social media influencers made fake bets before posting videos
claiming they had turned $500 into $100,000.
* The Associated Press reported that a group of new accounts on
Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S.
and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of
thousands of dollars in profits. At least 50 accounts placed
substantial "Yes" bets before Trump announced the ceasefire on Truth
Social at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by those
wallets.
* Some prediction markets let people bet on wildfires. Experts are
sounding the alarm, CNN reports, fearing it risks incentivizing arson.
* Kalshi will soon begin taking bets on the outcomes of clinical drug
trials. Nothing bad could come from that, right?
* Trump's teleprompter operator is suspected of using his inside
knowledge to win more than $100,000 betting on Kalshi about what the
president would say in his major speeches.
* Spotify removed about 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd's song
"Earrings" after its strong performance on the charts was linked to
manipulation tied to Kalshi bets.
* Polymarket pays "influencers" to insert its product into social media
conversations. Among them: former Politico reporter Rachael Bade,
former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, anti-trans activist Riley Gaines,
leftist commentator Brian Krassenstein, and right-wing podcaster Benny
Johnson (who was also funded by Russia, supposedly without his
knowledge).
* Billionaire Peter Thiel, the money man behind JD Vance's political
career, is a major investor in Polymarket.



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The greed of Team Trump and the mainstream media have empowered prediction
markets to separate many people from their money while allowing a few to
quietly profit from dodgy schemes.

CNBC and CNN aren't the only media companies with prediction market ties.
Polymarket has a partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street
Journal, though it must be said that some of the most negative stories
about prediction markets have appeared in the WSJ.

Polymarket also has a cooperation agreement with Substack, the publishing
platform for this newsletter, which is sponsored by COURIER Newsroom. I
have had no dealings with any prediction market and pledge to never take
their money.

If you see a journalist or influencer posting positively about a
prediction market on social media, ask them in the comments whether they
have any financial ties. I have done that myself and aim to do it more
often.

Prediction markets, as currently operated, stink to high heaven.



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