these aren’t your parents' type of swingers…

We completely understand if you blocked out the entirety of 2024 from your memory as a trauma response to that election cycle. What the hell is Brat summer? Who’s not like us? Isn’t Luigi a character from a video game?

Let’s bring you up to speed. In 2024, we developed a unique methodology for identifying electoral swing voters — those who have not solidified their vote choice in the upcoming election. And like Madonna’s new Confessions II, we’re delivering you a sequel that’s just as interesting as the first time around.

Our new report finds that while the swing voters of the 2026 midterms could still be persuaded to vote for either party, they currently favor a Democratic candidate for Congress over a Republican candidate by a 12-point margin, with 46% undecided.

Unlike in 2024, when swing voters were significantly younger and more diverse, these swing voters do not differ demographically from likely voters overall — except that they still report lower levels of political news consumption (jealous, tbh).

Swing voters were provided a list of policies — some more moderate, some more progressive — that Democratic candidates could adopt, and asked which three policies would make them definitely vote for a Democratic candidate in the midterm elections.

The most selected option is “raise taxes on the wealthy” (28%), followed by “create a Medicare for All health care system” (24%).

At least 1 in 5 swing voters also select “ban artificial intelligence from setting prices or wages based on personal data” (21%) and “restrict private utility companies from passing unreasonable costs on to customers” (20%) as policies that would move their vote to a Democratic candidate.

Surprise, surprise, it’s what voters have been telling their elected officials for the past who-knows-how-many years: they want full-throated economic populism, not wish-washy cultural moderation and old leadership that refuses to actually stand for anything. 

Let’s hope that Democrats actually serve voters what they’re ordering in November — because no one wants to hear that the restaurant substituted your entrée for something the donors liked better.

Read the full poll here.

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Here are some other highlights from DFP this week: 
 

DSAyyyyy

Over these past months, the Democratic Socialists of America have felt a bit like the return of the Knicks — putting up W after W. From Buffalo to Philadelphia to Denver, members of the DSA have been straight-up dunking on the Democratic establishment. But instead of embracing this infusion of youth, energy, and enthusiasm in their party, some Democratic leaders are trying to bench their star players — attempting to throw DSA candidates out of the party entirely — in favor of some third-string scrubs.

As our polling has consistently found over the last year, Democratic voters are fed up with the status quo. They want candidates who will restrict military aid to Israel and take on the bad actors who they think are ruining our country, including billionaires and corporate landlords. 

While these ideas should make most people excited, for those who have built their careers on encouraging the Democrats to do the opposite, it’s caused a bit of a meltdown.  

Eighty-one-year-old Democratic strategist James Carville — whom people apparently still interview for some reason — suggested it’s time for a “schism” in the party because DSA has no place in the coalition. At the same time, members of the Democratic establishment have insinuated that DSA candidates who are critical of that establishment should not be allowed to compete in Democratic primaries. 

Our Executive Director, Ryan O’Donnell, wrote about it on DFP Insights this week:

“At a time when we are up against a fascist president and party that want to actively intervene in the upcoming midterm elections to maintain their power, it’s undemocratic and hypocritical for Democrats to intervene in their own primaries by attempting to quash the DSA. And at a time when most voters have a negative view of the Democratic Party establishment, it's also a bad strategy, and yet another example of the status quo establishment being out of step with the will of Democratic voters.”

“If the Democratic Party wants real unity and enthusiasm going into 2026 and 2028, that must start with the establishment accepting primary results when DSA-aligned candidates win, instead of treating those wins as problems to be managed. Delegitimizing your own voters' choices is the kind of behavior Democrats rightly criticize Republicans for. 

We should be especially excited to see bold, young leaders wanting to run for elected office and take up the fight in Washington to beat authoritarianism, save our democracy, and establish a real safety net for American families."

Look, despite the smoky skies, diarrhea parasite outbreaks, and constant political chaos, the state of the vibes this summer has been pretty strong. The Knicks won the championship (thank you, President Mamdani), The Odyssey is living up to the hype, and DSA candidates have given voters a lot to be excited about. Let’s keep the good vibes going into November — and not listen to the (literal?) party poopers intent on keeping us divided.

Read the full DFP Insights here.

DFP In The News
 

The New Republic: Poll: Swing Voters Want Progressive Populism

Semafor: Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan

USA Today: Trump's 'big' speech puts election fixation ahead of economy | Opinion

Time: New Polling After McMorrow’s Exit Shakes Up Michigan Senate Race

CNBC: Consumers turn to buy now, pay later for essential expenses — with growing risks

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