The European Heat Wave and Chronic Absenteeism

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Edited by Carter Hutchinson and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine defense budget shortfalls, Europe’s aversion to air-conditioning, and post-pandemic chronic absenteeism.

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1. The Funding Crunch ([link removed] )

McCusker_7.2.26_final ([link removed] )

Topline: The latest cost estimates for Operation Epic Fury, Operation Southern Spear, and the repair of bases and facilities in the Middle East total $51.7 billion. AEI’s Elaine McCusker warns ([link removed] ) that these unexpected expenses have created serious funding shortfalls that require prompt congressional action.

Pending Requests: The Office of Management and Budget recently informed Congress of supplemental spending needs, including for the military and national security. Until Congress acts, the Pentagon will face tough choices when covering operational costs. Financial resources are necessary to fund the three main components of the armed forces—people, equipment, and operations.

Ongoing Budget Problems: McCusker argues that delayed and uncertain budgets year after year—exemplified in the historic government-wide shutdown in fall 2025—waste money and time. After the shutdown, the military waited 83 days for annual funding, a delay that cost taxpayers roughly $20 million per day in lost buying power.

“The penalties the Pentagon pays from uncertain budgets are sometimes not immediately visible, but they show up—in training accidents, lost competitiveness ([link removed] ) , industrial base capacity shortfalls, supply chain vulnerabilities, and, eventually, in damage to America’s economy, security, and safety."

—Elaine McCusker ([link removed] )

More on Defense Funding
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2. Europe’s Heat Problem ([link removed] )

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Topline: Europe has warmed roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade since the 1980s. As temperatures have climbed, heat-related deaths are up 30 percent over the past two decades, according ([link removed] ) to the World Health Organization. AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. explains ([link removed] ) that Europe’s long-standing aversion to air-conditioning (AC) has contributed to thousands of those deaths.

Rising Heat: The number of days designated as having “strong heat stress”—a temperature at or above 32 degrees Celsius (89.6 degrees Fahrenheit)—remained relatively stable in Europe through the 1980s before beginning a steady increase in the 1990s. The years 2022 through 2024 saw the highest numbers on record. Europe experienced roughly 68,000 heat-related deaths in 2022 and 62,800 in 2024.

Life-Saving Measures: Although the United States also has an aging population, it records far fewer heat-related deaths than Europe does. The major difference is AC. AC household penetration (i.e., the percentage of homes with AC) is roughly 19 percent in Europe, compared with 76 percent in the US. Pielke estimates that if Europe’s AC penetration had been comparable to North America’s in summer 2022, roughly 26,000 heat-related deaths could have been avoided.

“The countries with leaders that most loudly champion passive cooling and energy restraint—notably Germany, the U.K. and France—have the most potential for saving lives through expanding AC.”

—Roger Pielke Jr. ([link removed] )

More on the European Heat Wave
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3. Tracking Post-Pandemic Chronic Absenteeism ([link removed] )

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Topline: Chronic absenteeism—the percentage of K–12 students who miss 10 percent or more of the school year—rose from about 15 percent before the pandemic to exceed 28 percent among US public school students by 2022. AEI’s Nat Malkus cautions ([link removed] ) that chronic absenteeism rates are not falling fast enough and that, without additional measures, about half the pandemic-related increase in absenteeism could become the new baseline.

Dangerous Plateau: Chronic absenteeism rates fell by 2.7 percent in 2023 and 2.1 percent in 2024 but declined by just 1 percent in 2025. These numbers raise concerns that progress is stalling, since the pace of improvement slowed compared with that of previous years.

The 50% Challenge: Malkus suggests that states and districts should commit to cutting their 2022 chronic absenteeism rates in half by 2027. Meeting that goal would reduce absenteeism to below pre-pandemic levels, which were already unacceptably high. Eighteen states have formally adopted this goal already.

“It will require families, parents, and students to recognize that attendance matters every day and that the responsibility for ensuring consistent attendance—and the costs of students not attending school consistently—fall on them.”

—Nat Malkus ([link removed] )

More on Chronic Absenteeism
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Dive into More Data

Eberstadt_7.2.26 ([link removed] )

Fertility Falls to Preindustrial Levels ([link removed] )

More on Fertility Rates
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Pinto+Peter_7.2.26 ([link removed] )

The Impact of Congress’s Housing Bill ([link removed] )

More on Housing
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Special thanks to Hannah Bowen, Rosalie Blacklock, and Drew Kirkpatrick.

Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!

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