[[link removed]]

TRUMP’S GROUNDHOG DAY: ENDLESS COLD WAR WITH IRAN  
[[link removed]]


 

Robert Kuttner
July 1, 2026
The American Prospect
[[link removed]]


*
[[link removed]]
*
*
[[link removed]]

_ We’ve entered into a period of prolonged stalemate, on terms
favorable to Iran. _

President Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner, center, and Steve Witkoff,
right, attend the Lake Lucerne Summit to conduct Middle East
negotiations, near Lucerne, Switzerland, June 21, 2026. , Credit: Urs
Flueeler, Pool Photo via AP

 

We now have a pretty good picture of what the next few months will be
like in Trump’s on-again, off-again Iran war. The cease-fire will
mostly continue, punctuated by periodic skirmishes. The Strait of
Hormuz will be mostly open, but intermittently closed. There will be
hollow threats of resuming full conflict, and no real progress toward
containing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The events of the past few days will keep repeating themselves. If
you’ve seen the movie _Groundhog Day_, you will have a sense of the
endless repetition. But unlike the Bill Murray character, who finally
gets it right, Trump never does.

Beginning last Thursday, the U.S. military attacked Iranian
communication and air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and
mine-laying capabilities. The U.S. contended that this was in response
to an attack on an oil tanker in the strait. According to Iran, the
tanker had followed a route near the coast of Oman that Tehran had
warned shippers not to use.

Iran retaliated with attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and
Bahrain, and threatened to close the strait again. Trump then
blustered on social media, “There may come a point when we are no
longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily
complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens,
the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”

But the Iranians have the upper hand, because they know that Trump,
despite his threats, does not dare to wreck the oil-dependent U.S.
economy again with just four months to go before the election. With
the tenuous cease-fire, Trump has now achieved his main short-term
goal, which is to limit the economic damage.

The price of crude oil is back to what it was before the war, but not
the price of gas at the pump. High gas prices reflect reliance on the
national stockpile, which has been almost depleted and will need to be
replenished.

The skirmishes also derailed the latest round of negotiations. By
Sunday, both sides had suspended attacks, talks were set to resume in
the Qatari capital of Doha, the two sides continued to dispute what
the deal actually provided, and the cycle began again.

Trump is now bored with Iran, and fundamentally unserious about the
larger issues of national security. If he were serious, he would not
have put Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in charge of Iran diplomacy
or let Bibi Netanyahu talk him into launching the war in the first
place.

Meanwhile, the barbaric dance between Israel and Hezbollah will also
continue. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled the
latest U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon deal. It allows Israel to continue
occupying most of southern Lebanon but turns over two small “pilot
zones” to the Lebanese army, with the idea of neutralizing Hezbollah
in those zones and eventually in all of southern Lebanon. However,
Hezbollah is not party to the deal and vowed to continue attacks.
Despite the hype, the deal is a fantasy.

So we will see a continuation of the warfare in southern Lebanon,
which the U.S. committed to end as part of the Iran cease-fire. Trump
will continue admonishing Bibi for violating the Iran deal, and Bibi
will continue doing what he wants. This will further destabilize U.S.
relations with Iran.

It all leaves Iran stronger and the U.S. weaker than before the war.
On the crucial question of Iran’s nuclear capability, a major part
of Trump’s rationale for the war, any possible agreement will be far
worse than the one that Barack Obama negotiated in 2013–2015, which
Trump tore up. And those negotiations keep being postponed.

If you want to get a sense of the serious, adult diplomacy that led to
the 2015 agreement, watch this recent CNN interview with John Kerry
[[link removed]],
in which Kerry explains the two years of patient negotiation that led
to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
[[link removed]] (JCPOA), and the
enlistment of Russia, China, and every other major world power as
guarantors.

Under the JCPOA deal, Iran agreed to constrain fuel cycle activities
that could lead to production of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium.
The JCPOA restricted the number and type of centrifuges and the level
of uranium enrichment, and Iran agreed to accept stepped-up
International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring of its nuclear
activities. In exchange, Iran received relief from nuclear-related
sanctions but not economic sanctions. It was a stunning achievement of
diplomacy, and nothing that Trump might achieve now will come close.

A friend observes, comparing Kerry and Obama and their diplomacy with
the current Trump crew, “It’s kind of like Jurassic Park. I know
these creatures roamed the political scene at one time, long ago, but
now I’m getting to see them live [on the Kerry interview] and it’s
a bizarre feeling. You see and feel how different they are from
today’s creatures.”

_ROBERT KUTTNER is co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect,
and professor at Brandeis University’s Heller School. His latest
book is __Notes for Next Time: Surviving Tyranny, Redeeming America_
[[link removed]]_. Follow
Bob at his site, __robertkuttner.com_ [[link removed]]_,
and on Twitter._

* US-Iran negotiatons
[[link removed]]
* Stalemate
[[link removed]]

*
[[link removed]]
*
*
[[link removed]]

 

 

 

INTERPRET THE WORLD AND CHANGE IT

 

 

Submit via web
[[link removed]]

Submit via email
Frequently asked questions
[[link removed]]
Manage subscription
[[link removed]]
Visit xxxxxx.org
[[link removed]]

Bluesky [[link removed]]

Facebook [[link removed]]

 




[link removed]

To unsubscribe, click the following link:
[link removed]