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Senior Partner, Stansberry Research
CEO, MarketWise

P.S. Over 500,000 people pay for my firm's research because we uncover opportunities and the biggest market events before they go mainstream.

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3 Long-Duration Treasury ETFs to Watch if Rates Fall

Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Posted: 6/15/2026.

Long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds have faced a difficult stretch amid inflation, interest rate moves, and yields that have risen sharply from their pandemic-era lows. While the consensus view may be that long bonds like these are risky, contrarian investors may argue that long-duration Treasury bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer asymmetric upside if inflation fears fade and rates normalize.

Oil prices could be an important driver here, since spikes in crude may be helping keep inflation sticky. A reduction in geopolitical risk—say, through a ceasefire between the United States and Iran—could lower both inflation expectations and Treasury yields. Because even a modest decline in long-term yields can have a significant impact on the performance of long-duration bonds, investors anticipating such a shift may want to position themselves now.

A Highly Liquid Option for Straightforward Long-Duration Treasury Access

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The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) is a highly liquid long-duration bond trade that may appeal to investors seeking to extend the duration of their portfolio. The fund has more than $40 billion in assets and a one-month average trading volume of just under 27 million shares.

As the name suggests, TLT focuses on Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of more than 20 years. That extended duration leaves these bonds especially exposed to interest rate risk, which may make long-duration bonds less prominent in some broader bond funds. For that reason, a fund like TLT can be a useful way to gain targeted exposure to this specific asset class.

TLT's portfolio comprises about 50 distinct Treasury bond positions, and the fund pays a dividend yield of 4.55%. If yields do decline, TLT may see meaningful upside while remaining less volatile than some other duration-sensitive alternatives. In terms of liquidity, accessibility, and simplicity, TLT can be a strong option for investors looking to broaden their Treasury exposure.

A STRIPS Approach With High Interest Rate Impact

For a slightly different approach, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ZROZ) tracks an index of STRIPS—bonds with the interest payments removed and sold separately, leaving only the principal payment due at maturity. Specifically, ZROZ focuses on STRIPS for bonds with at least 25 years remaining until maturity.

With an ultra-long-duration strategy like this, interest rate movements have an especially large impact. When rates fall, the fund is likely to perform well, making ZROZ a good candidate for investors expecting rates to come down after an extended period of elevation.

The unique approach ZROZ takes makes it significantly more niche than TLT, and the fund's asset base of just $1.3 billion and modest trading volume—a one-month average of just over half a million shares—reflect that. ZROZ is therefore not the most liquid long-duration bond fund, and investors seeking more active trading should take note. Still, its dividend yield of 5.08% is quite attractive, and ZROZ matches TLT's expense ratio of 0.15% exactly.

An Alternative to ZROZ With Lower Fees and Higher Liquidity, But a Yield Trade-Off

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV) takes a similar approach to ZROZ by focusing on long-duration STRIPS with maturities between 20 and 30 years. For investors seeking exposure to strong credit quality, EDV may be a compelling choice. Of course, like ZROZ, EDV also carries a higher level of interest rate risk than some other bond fund options.

Investors expecting the Fed to hold rates steady or eventually cut them might reasonably expect EDV to deliver attractive returns, given its yield advantage over shorter-term Treasury investments. One important distinction between EDV and ZROZ is the former's fee advantage: EDV's expense ratio of 0.05% is just a third of its rival's. It also has a larger asset base of about $3.5 billion and more robust trading volume.

With a broader portfolio of more than 80 positions, EDV is also more diversified than ZROZ. Where the fund gives up a bit of ground to its competitor, however, is dividend yield. EDV's yield is slightly lower at 4.97%. Still, sacrificing a bit of potential yield in exchange for greater liquidity, a more diversified basket, and a substantially lower fee may make EDV the STRIPS fund of choice for many investors who are bullish on long-term Treasury prospects overall.

Is OpenAI’s IPO Delay a Warning for AI Investors?

Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Posted: 6/29/2026.

In late June 2026, rumors began to circulate across the tech world that ChatGPT maker OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO from late 2026 to 2027. While the regulatory review process, market volatility, and a host of other factors regularly shift IPO timelines for companies planning to go public, this update is particularly significant. There has been a broad sense of unease across much of the investor sphere as AI appears to have taken over a variety of other industries, along with growing concern that a potential "AI bubble" could pop.

For investors considering their next plays in the tech space, it will be key to watch the companies responsible for the hardware that powers AI applications: chip makers. Unease has hit chip stocks, with shares of major producers such as NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU), and Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) all dropping sharply over the last week. But will the IPO window reopen, or is this a sign that the market is beginning a dramatic repricing of AI overall?

AI IPO Shakiness on Valuation Concerns

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OpenAI's potential IPO delay may stem from shakiness in the tech market and concerns that there may not be support for a valuation of around $1 trillion, reportedly the target of CEO Sam Altman.

A key test case for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies eyeing IPOs in the coming quarters was SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO. Elon Musk's long-awaited space firm went public in mid-June, raising more than $85 billion in the process. However, shares of SPCX slid from above $225 to just $153 in a two-week span.

A catalyst for this SPCX selloff may hold even more weight for AI companies as they consider IPO timing. With a $60-billion all-stock acquisition planned for AI coding startup Cursor later this year, Musk appears to be positioning SpaceX to make a dramatic pivot. Shareholders are facing dilution and concerns about the viability of AI as a key component of SpaceX's strategy. For existing AI companies, the news is potentially bad for at least two reasons: first, SpaceX's pivot toward AI may have helped to scare off previously enthusiastic investors; and second, the company could quickly become a major competitor in an already crowded field.

Investors Should Watch the Chips

Ultimately, AI companies rely on hardware and infrastructure to make their products viable. Investors have been able to notch wins focusing only on these factors, rather than on AI companies themselves—a good thing, too, given that most of the major AI firms are pre-IPO. But if AI hardware makers or infrastructure providers are struggling, it could be a sign that there is less appetite in the market for more mega-cap AI firms.

With a selloff during some of the last several trading days of June, investors might interpret the movement across the chipmaker landscape as a signal of the market rebuking the AI IPO timeline or pricing. Zooming out, though, it's less clear if the movement in stocks like NVDA or MU is specifically tied to news about OpenAI. Following a massive six-week rally through mid-May 2026, NVDA has been gradually settling toward the price level it had traded at for much of the last year. A decline in late June may be less a sign of AI trouble and more a continuation of an ongoing reset.

As time goes on, the picture may become clearer for investors watching chip stocks. If the declines continue, for example, and particularly if they are tied to other updates surrounding AI IPOs, it could confirm that there is reason to be hesitant.

While NVIDIA's next earnings report is not due until late August, Micron recently provided an update that may strengthen investors' resolve on the future of chipmakers and AI. The company reported record fiscal Q3 results, including revenue that surged nearly 350% year over year (YOY), an impressive gross margin of 84.9%, and a massive earnings-per-share beat.

This shows that a single week's worth of performance across the chip space is likely not enough evidence to make a case for or against AI firms intending to go public soon. Rather, investors will need to keep a close eye on proxies for AI companies—chip manufacturers, companies that operate and build data centers, energy providers, and so on—over a longer period to get the clearest sense of the environment.