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Goldman’s S&P 500 Target Looks More Reachable After the Latest Rally

Written by Jessica Mitacek. Posted: 6/16/2026.

The markets have chopped around and traded mostly sideways over the past month, with the S&P 500 remaining largely flat after bouncing back on June 11, when President Donald Trump announced that he was halting attacks on Iran.

Prior to that social media post, however, the benchmark index was on the verge of a pullback, having fallen 4.5% from its one-month high. Conditions remain volatile, though, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reaching its highest level since early April.

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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.

Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.

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See the 5 stocks to avoid

Still, that has not dissuaded Goldman Sachs from maintaining its bullish outlook. In fact, in late May, the investment bank and financial services firm raised its 2026 year-end price target for the S&P 500 from 7,600 to 8,000. From where the benchmark index is trading today, that suggests potential upside of about 6% for the rest of the year.

Record Highs Are Almost Always Followed by Selloffs

The strong performance of the S&P 500 is being driven by a large number of stocks having recently hit their 52-week highs. Meanwhile, the market rotation out of higher-risk tech names and into overlooked—but outperforming—sectors like industrials and materials is helping drive a broad and sustainable rally.

That was evident in Q1 2026 earnings. Roughly 85% of companies in the index reported earnings beats, with about 80% of them surpassing revenue expectations. That broadening of earnings growth is a trend Wall Street expects to continue throughout the remainder of the year and into next.

Goldman’s decision to raise its year-end target for the S&P 500 is based on numerous factors, but one major contributor is its strategists’ belief that earnings per share (EPS) will continue to grow throughout 2026. The bank projects EPS of $340 this year, which would mark a 24% increase over the prior year, and $385 for 2027, which would represent growth of 13%.

Additionally, a 6% gain from current prices does not seem far-fetched. Q1 earnings season is in the rearview mirror, with companies still having three quarters of earnings to report.

While the war in Iran pushed oil prices higher and lifted the energy sector so far this year, crude has started to pull back after an initial U.S.-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If the agreement holds, lower energy costs could help ease inflation pressure and support investor risk appetite.

Other tailwinds that have contributed to numerous all-time highs this year remain in place, including:

• The global memory chip shortage, which is expected to last at least until 2027, suggesting that the AI trade has staying power.

• Consumer spending is proving resilient despite inflation climbing to a three-year high.

Essentially, the market’s macro backdrop could continue pushing the S&P 500 higher. The current selloff in AI and software names is a natural part of a healthy cycle, and the index was overbought heading into June and due for a pullback. Structurally, the bull run remains intact. But there are additional catalysts that could help drive the benchmark toward 8,000.

IPO Euphoria Will Continue to Drive Institutional and Retail Inflows

IPO fever has also gripped the markets.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12 after pricing its IPO at $135 per share, giving public-market investors direct exposure to one of the world’s most closely watched private companies. The successful debut placed SpaceX among the largest publicly traded companies and gave the IPO market a major validation point.

SpaceX’s debut could help clear the path for the next cohort of mega-cap AI and technology companies eyeing public listings. OpenAI announced on June 8 that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, while Anthropic filed on June 1. Both filings point to a public-market pipeline that could keep IPO enthusiasm alive beyond SpaceX.

While neither company is likely to fetch SpaceX’s valuation, the revival in IPO activity matters for the broader market. Large public debuts can draw in new capital, reinforce investor confidence in growth stocks, and give Wall Street fresh benchmarks for valuing companies tied to artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and next-generation technology.

In addition, Nasdaq recently updated its Nasdaq 100 methodology to allow certain large new listings to qualify for faster entry, while FTSE Russell introduced a fast-entry rule that allows eligible large IPOs to join Russell U.S. indexes after the fifth trading day. MSCI already had fast-track rules for large IPOs in place. If SPCX qualifies for early inclusion, it could pave the way for other companies—like OpenAI and Anthropic—to bypass historical seasoning rules and be fast-tracked into major indices.

It is worth noting, however, that SpaceX is not getting the same fast-track path into the S&P 500, where S&P Dow Jones Indices kept its existing seasoning, financial viability, and minimum investable weight factor requirements in place.

Investor Confidence Is Being Tested, Not Broken

Investor sentiment is not uniformly bullish, but that may actually strengthen the case for a measured year-end rally. The latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey shows individual investors are still cautious, with bullish sentiment below its historical average and bearish sentiment elevated. The Fear & Greed Index has also remained in “fear” territory, suggesting the market has not returned to the kind of broad euphoria that often marks a more fragile rally.

Between AI’s CapEx supercycle, ongoing and projected broad earnings growth, and the rush of IPOs coming to market, it remains likely that the S&P 500 will be able to hit Goldman Sachs’ year-end projection.

Qualcomm Drops 25%, But Investor Day Could Reverse the Slide

Written by Sam Quirke. Posted: 6/15/2026.

Shares of Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) are doing what they, unfortunately, do best: selling off hard. At one point last week, the semiconductor giant traded around $190, after being above $250 just a week earlier. That’s a drop of more than 25%, giving back a sizable chunk of the 100%+ rally it enjoyed from April into May. For a stock that had just hit fresh all-time highs and looked to have finally rounded a corner, it's a painful reversal.

Much of this isn't Qualcomm-specific. Chip and AI-related stocks have been falling alongside the broader market downturn triggered by the May labor report and growing uncertainty over tensions in the Middle East.

ALERT: Drop these 5 stocks before the market opens tomorrow! (Ad)

The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.

Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.

If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.

See the 5 stocks to avoid

But there's a Qualcomm-specific element to the selling, too, with concerns circulating that the stock's valuation had become overextended relative to its fundamentals after such an aggressive run.

That's exactly why the company's upcoming Investor Day, set for June 24, is suddenly so important. JPMorgan flagged it as a catalyst to watch closely because, if management gets it right, it could remove much of the weight that's been dragging the stock down. For those of us watching from the sidelines, that sets up an interesting couple of weeks.

What's Behind the Sudden Selloff

The speed of Qualcomm's reversal says more about market positioning than it does about the company itself. A stock that doubles in less than two months attracts a lot of fast money, and when the broader mood turns risk-off, that money tends to leave even faster than it arrived. With sentiment toward semis and AI names cooling markedly over the past fortnight, Qualcomm was always going to be one of the more exposed names.

The valuation concern is the part worth taking seriously. As the 100% rally was peaking last month, Qualcomm’s price-to-earnings ratio was also peaking at its highest level in more than a decade. In other words, investors were being asked to pay up for a growth story that, while compelling in the broader context of the AI revolution, hadn't yet been formally laid out by Qualcomm’s management.

That gap is precisely what created the air pocket the stock has fallen into. It's also what the Investor Day can fix.

Why June 24 Could Change Everything

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee added a positive catalyst watch on the stock this week ahead of the event. The expectation is that Qualcomm will use the day to formally outline its data center strategy, built across three pillars spanning custom silicon, merchant CPUs, and AI accelerators.

More importantly, Chatterjee expects management to set hard revenue targets against those ambitions, stretching from the next fiscal year through the early 2030s. Alongside continued robust growth in automotive and an inflection in its Internet of Things (IoT) business, projections are expected to show that non-handset markets will contribute the vast majority of revenue by the end of the decade, with data centers alone becoming a major pillar.

That's the diversification story investors have been waiting for Qualcomm to tell convincingly for years. The company has long been viewed and valued as a smartphone chip supplier that's basically held hostage to handset cycles. A credible, numbers-backed roadmap showing it transforming into a diversified data center and AI player would change the entire conversation about how much the stock deserves to be multiplied.

The JPMorgan Update Worth Reading Twice

Here's where it gets really interesting. Alongside the catalyst watch, Chatterjee raised his price target on Qualcomm from $160 to $265, an increase of more than 60% in one move, while keeping a Neutral rating, suggesting lingering caution. Despite the rating, a price target jump of that magnitude is rare, especially given that it would push the stock even higher than the record levels it briefly touched last month.

To be specific, from recent prices around $212, the $265 target implies about 25% upside. When an analyst who isn't even officially bullish on a stock sees that much room above the current price, it suggests the recent selling may have gone too far.

Weighing Up the Opportunity

Still, none of this eliminates the risk that the Investor Day will disappoint. Qualcomm needs to deliver targets ambitious enough to justify the AI-era rerating the bulls want, while remaining credible enough for the market to believe them. Any miss on either side of that balance, and a stock this volatile could easily take another leg lower, particularly if the broader semi selloff continues in the background.

However, for investors who believe in the emerging diversification story, the setup is hard to ignore. The stock is much cheaper than it was a week ago, the fundamentals haven't changed, and a major catalyst is now less than two weeks away. While the recent price action is telling investors to stay away, the calendar is saying this might actually be the time to start paying attention.