Also: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Fatherhood in America

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Edited by Brady Africk and Carter Hutchinson

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the impact of unexcused absences from school, the state of Iran’s nuclear program, and changes in American fatherhood.

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1. Classifying Chronic Absenteeism ([link removed] )

06.25_Malkus ([link removed] )

Topline: School absenteeism has remained high since the COVID-19 pandemic. Tracking chronic absenteeism is complex, because it measures excused and unexcused school absences in the same way. Using attendance records from Indiana, AEI’s Nat Malkus and Sam Hollon explain ([link removed] ) that there is a meaningful difference between unexcused and excused school absences and that unexcused absences should be the primary target for future efforts to improve attendance.

Unexcused Absence Analysis: In 2024, about 41 percent of all absences in Indiana schools were classified as unexcused, but only about one-third of the average student’s absences were unexcused. Unexcused absences are concentrated among the most absent students: The 10 percent of students who were the most absent had twice as many unexcused absences as did students in the next 10 percent. Unexcused absences in Indiana were more common among students from historically disadvantaged groups and—more so than excused absences—were driven by the choices of students and their families.

Attendance Matters: Unexcused absences matter more for student test scores than excused absences do. Unexcused absences were associated with 49 percent of the total absence-related declines in math test scores and 67 percent of the declines in English language arts scores. Malkus and Hollon suggest that more emphasis should be placed on the impact of unexcused absences on student attendance and learning loss in the post-pandemic era.

“Given the challenge post-pandemic chronic absenteeism still poses to schools and students, a clear-eyed assessment of unexcused absences’ role is an essential part of a functional response.”

—Nat Malkus ([link removed] ) and Sam Hollon

More on School Attendance
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2. What Comes Next in Iran ([link removed] )

6.25_Pletka Thiessen ([link removed] )

Topline: The memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran includes provisions on key points of contention during the conflict, such as opening the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iran’s nuclear program pending further talks, and funding Iran’s reconstruction and economic development. AEI’s Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen speak ([link removed] ) with nuclear weapons expert David Albright about the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program following Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury and the timeline on which Iran could produce a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: After 13,500 strikes in Iran during Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Epic Fury, Iran’s nuclear program is severely damaged. The remnants are enriched uranium stocks and centrifuges that were built but have not yet been deployed. The program previously had 22,000 centrifuges, many of which were enriching uranium to contain 60 percent fissile material, which is not far from the 90 percent threshold considered ([link removed] ) weapons grade. Now, many of them have been destroyed. It appears that the process of making a nuclear weapon will be much more difficult for Iran and will take many more months than it would have before the conflict.

Peace Treaty Proposals: Pletka, Thiessen, and Albright explain that in the final deal, the US will need to push Iran to admit the existence of its nuclear program and restrict Iran’s ability to enrich uranium. The US will have to mandate that Iran declare the quantity of enriched uranium remaining at each nuclear site, about 10 tons total, and ensure that organizations like the International Atomic Energy Agency can verify those numbers. An end to uranium enrichment would include a full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear research, development, and testing program, alongside production bans.

“We will see what happens in the negotiating table, but I think that the Iranians are set back but they are not chastened. And I think they think that they have leverage and so they’re not going to negotiate the kind of deal we have. And my prediction is that we will have to go back to combat at some point.”

—Marc A. Thiessen ([link removed] )

More on Iran’s Nuclear Program
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3. Fatherhood in America ([link removed] )

06.25_Wilcox ([link removed] )

Topline: Though American dads are more engaged in their children’s lives than ever before, fatherhood has become more concentrated among men with the resources to make family formation a priority. Childlessness among men age 24–45 hit a record high in 2024. In 1980, 10 million men in this age group did not have children, compared with 23 million in 2024. AEI’s Brad Wilcox and Grant Bailey highlight ([link removed] ) the demographic groups less likely to enter fatherhood and the social consequences of that choice.

Key Factors: Age, class, political orientation, and religiosity all shape entry into fatherhood in modern America. The decline in having children is most prevalent among younger men. Some of that decline can be explained by families choosing to have children later in life, but the decision not to have children at all is also an important factor. Less-educated men are still more likely to be fathers, but they have seen larger recent declines than have college-educated men. The share of college-educated men who are dads has fallen by only 8 percentage points.

Political affiliation and religious attendance are also crucial indicators. Thirty-seven percent of liberal men age 25–45 are fathers, compared with 62 percent of their conservative peers. Moreover, 64 percent of men age 25–45 who frequently attend religious services are fathers, but just half of their secular same-age peers have children.

Social Consequences: Married fathers are twice as likely to be very happy with their lives as are their unmarried and childless peers. Men without children are typically lonelier, less purpose driven, and less happy than fathers engaged in their children’s lives. Unmarried and childless men are significantly more likely to succumb to idleness, crime, and deaths of despair. If the trends continue, younger, less-educated, liberal, and secular men will be most affected by the challenges that come from not being fathers.

“There is no question that some men do not seem to require the disciplines of family and fatherhood to thrive—work, or sport, or faith is enough to orient these male lives in meaningful and fulfilling ways. But contemporary research confirms the wisdom of Akerlof, Mead, and Saxbe: for most men, life is better when it is grounded in family and fatherhood.”

—Brad Wilcox ([link removed] ) and Grant Bailey

More on American Fathers
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Dive into More Data

06.25_Cox ([link removed] )

Declining Pride in Being American ([link removed] )

More on Patriotism
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06.25_Pielke ([link removed] )

Gasoline Prices During the Conflict in Iran ([link removed] )

More on the Economics of the Iran War
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Special thanks to Hannah Bowen, Rosalie Blacklock, and Drew Kirkpatrick.

Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!

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