Hi John,
A DCCC poll last week showed we were leading for the first time in this race, ahead of Lee Zeldin by two points, 48-46!
The DCCC poll came on the heels of our internal August poll of NY-01 voters, conducted by Global Strategy Group, the best pollster in New York, and I am excited to share some insights we learned from our research.
In 2016, Trump won NY-01 by 12 points, but this new poll shows he is deeply unpopular among voters due to his incompetent handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Currently, he is losing to Biden by 4 points in the district (46% Biden to 42% Trump), and his approval rating is even further underwater (52% disapprove to 43% approval). These numbers show that NY-01 is ready to flip, and we are within striking distance.
Here is what else you need to know:
- In an initial head-to-head with Lee Zeldin, we're down five points (42% Goroff to 47% Zeldin), which is attributed to my relatively low name ID among voters. While being down five against an incumbent who spends his time on national television isn’t ideal, name recognition is something we can overcome, especially with 12% of voters still undecided. The fact that Zeldin is polling below 50% after three terms is also particularly encouraging news.
- When people learn more about me, we move into the lead by +4 points (47% Goroff to 43% Zeldin). The results show that there is power in my profile. When voters learn about my background in science, the work I've done for our community, and how I've raised my family here, the vote moves in our favor. This means if we can get my message out to voters through our TV, radio, digital, and field programs, we win.
- But, when voters hear the typical baseless GOP attacks being used against me, we lose ground, putting us down by just 1 point.
- And when voters then learn about Zeldin's close affiliation to the president and his hyperpartisan politics, we move back into the lead by FIVE points (45% Goroff to 40% Zeldin).
The most important takeaway here is that if we have the resources to get my extremely popular message in front of voters, we will see a sweeping victory come November.
Our strategy is to coalesce and energize Democratic support in every part of the district -- that means in the Hamptons, North Fork, Smithtown, Islip, and ALL of Brookhaven. We'll put a focus on undecided and unaffiliated voters and bring them onto our side by making sure they know who I am and who Zeldin represents. (Hint: It's the very worst of his party and his big donors, not us.)
But look, we know that hyperpartisan, fear-inducing attacks are headed our way. Zeldin's operation will be funded by Donald Trump and his allies, the American Action Network, and special interest donors -- by our calculations, we expect him to have $5 million or more to spend against us. To out-hustle my opponent, we need to raise $80,000 online alone before the end of the month.
Your support will help us counter these attacks, make sure the voters know who Lee really is, and show them the positive, fact based, and Suffolk-rooted alternative that we offer.
We can’t win this race without you now.
Thank you,
Nancy
