American Civic Values and the US-Iran Agreement

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Edited by Carter Hutchinson and Hannah Bowen

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the economic and political implications of the ballooning US debt, Americans’ perspectives on and knowledge of US history, and the US-Iran peace deal.

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1. The Dangers of America’s Debt ([link removed] )

6.18_Strain ([link removed] )

Topline: This year, the US ratio of debt to GDP exceeded 100 percent for the first time since 1946, during the Second World War. Debt service is currently the third-largest category of federal spending behind Social Security and Medicare. Many politicians appear increasingly resigned to the idea that the government will engage in fiscal consolidation only in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. But AEI’s Michael R. Strain disagrees ([link removed] ) , asserting that the normal democratic process could lead to a deficit reduction and greater fiscal responsibility.

Balancing the Books: During the 1980s, Americans lived through a period when the 10-year Treasury yield hit nearly 16 percent, making it harder for households to buy homes and automobiles and for businesses to invest. In the 1992 presidential election, voters pressed candidates to reduce the budget deficit, and in 1993, the last truly successful effort to reduce the deficit was passed.

The Cost of Doing Politics: Housing affordability was a clear issue in the 2024 presidential election and has only grown in prominence since. As concerns regarding the cost of living grow, political competition and voter pressure will push 2028 presidential candidates to promise solutions, including fiscal consolidation. Strain asserts that this is not a call for complacency in the meantime; he argues that when enough voters feel economic pain from deficit increases, more politicians will take action toward reduction.

“Responsible policymakers should be planning today for the moment when the democratic process pressures politicians to cut the deficit. And even if many voters are demanding fiscal consolidation, cutting spending on social security and Medicare and raising taxes will be politically challenging, requiring stronger leadership in Congress and the White House than the nation has had over the past decade.”

—Michael R. Strain ([link removed] )

More on US Debt
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2. What Do Americans Know About US History? ([link removed] )

6.18_Bowman ([link removed] )

Topline: The United States is approaching the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, but how familiar are Americans with these foundational documents today? AEI’s Karlyn Bowman and Nicole Penn analyze ([link removed] ) survey data from 2026 and 1998 on Americans’ knowledge of and perspectives on US history and find consistent divides between younger and older Americans.

Are You Smarter Than a Baby Boomer? Nearly three-quarters of Americans have some familiarity with the Declaration of Independence. In 2026, 45 percent of survey respondents reported they had read the Declaration of Independence in part, 29 percent reported having read it in full, and 26 percent had not read it at all. The survey also found that younger generations were less familiar with the document than older ones were—with 23 percent of the Gen Z cohort having read it in full, compared with 35 percent of baby boomers. Furthermore, 91 percent of baby boomers could provide a substantial answer to the meaning of July 4, whereas 77 percent of the Gen Z cohort could do the same.

Continuing Civic Values: The 2026 and 1998 survey data highlight some areas of continuity in American knowledge and attitudes. The 2026 survey revealed some continuity in knowledge about key historical events in American history, and parents in both years prioritized learning basic academic and social skills over understanding the history that ties Americans together.

“In the roughly 30 years between the surveys, parents have become more tolerant and more willing to acknowledge historical wrongs as part of their children’s education. They are also less likely to judge others about deficiencies in their civic knowledge than were parents 30 years ago.”

—Karlyn Bowman ([link removed] ) and Nicole Penn

More on Civic Values
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3. A New Peace Proposition ([link removed] )

6.18_CTP ([link removed] )

Topline: On June 19, the US and Iran are expected to formally sign an agreement that reportedly calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, requires Iran to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, and requires the US to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. However, researchers at AEI’s Critical Threat Project highlight ([link removed] ) that US and Iranian sources have expressed diverging interpretations of a few key points of the agreement.

Differing Perspectives: Vice President JD Vance remarked that the US expects the Strait of Hormuz to be open and operating toll-free for the long term. However, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps–affiliated media, Iran will temporarily pause imposing fees on vessels moving through the strait for the next 60 days but intends to resume charging vessels “service fees” after that period.

A Tepid Peace: The US and Iran have expressed different interpretations of the future of Iran’s frozen assets. Additionally, Iran-backed Hezbollah has signaled that its adherence to the Lebanon ceasefire outlined in the US-Iran agreement is linked to Israel’s adherence to the same provision, but Israeli officials have stated that the Israel Defense Forces will continue to operate in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah. Iran could seek to make its implementation of the US-Iran agreement contingent on Israel agreeing to a ceasefire in Lebanon as the parties try to finalize the agreement.

“These diverging interpretations of key provisions in the agreement will likely complicate the implementation of the agreement and the next phase of negotiations.”

—Ria Reddy et al.

More on Iran
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Dive into More Data

6.18_Smith ([link removed] )

Food and Agricultural Tariff Exemptions ([link removed] )

More on Tariffs
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6.17_Cooper ([link removed] )

The Fight Against Degree Inflation ([link removed] )

More on Degree Inflation
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Special thanks to Henry Long, Rosalie Blacklock, and Drew Kirkpatrick.

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