Hi. It's
James Carville.
I’ve been watching Senate races for decades. What I’m seeing in New
Hampshire right now is keeping me up at night — and it should concern
y’all too.
I put together a brief memo. Read it. Then let’s help Chris Pappas win
this race.
[ [link removed] ]If you don’t need convincing, rush a donation to Chris Pappas’s
campaign now.
[ [link removed] ]Donate »
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SPRING 2026 CAMPAIGN MEMO ON NH-SEN
FROM: James Carville, Senior Democratic Strategist
TO: Interested Parties
I need to be clear with you about where things stand in the race for New
Hampshire’s open Senate seat.
The New Hampshire Senate race has been in the margin of error for months —
and it’s not getting the attention it deserves.
* Three recent polls show this race in a dead heat:
* Emerson (March 2026): Pappas 45–Sununu 44
* St. Anselm (March 2026): Pappas 46–Sununu 43
* St. Anselm (November 2025): Pappas 44–Sununu 41
* All of these polls show this race within the margin of error. The race
has been functionally tied for months.
* New Hampshire’s open Senate seat is sitting in a dead heat with
significantly less financial firepower on our side than we have in
other Senate races.
* This race will almost certainly be decided by whether Chris Pappas has
the resources to compete on the airwaves and on the ground in the
final stretch.
The GOP knows exactly what’s at stake here — and they’re already moving.
* The Senate Leadership Fund has committed over $17 million to elect
John Sununu — their largest investment in New Hampshire in a decade.
* John Sununu is not a back-bench candidate. He has a famous New
Hampshire political name (his father and his brother both served as
governor), a history of winning statewide, and the full weight of the
Republican donor machine behind him.
* And here’s something voters in New Hampshire deserve to know: Sununu
left the Senate in 2009 and spent the years following building a
personal fortune — with assets estimated as high as $36 million —
through corporate board positions and investments in oil and gas
companies, including ExxonMobil, Shell, and more. He left New
Hampshire, cashed in, and now wants to come back.
* Republicans understand the math perfectly. They don’t need to flip
five seats. They just need to flip New Hampshire’s Senate seat and
make Democrats’ path to a majority impossible.
New Hampshire has decided elections before — and the margins are razor
thin.
* In 2016, the last time New Hampshire had a race for an open Senate
seat, the race was decided by just 1,017 votes.
* When Democrats chart a path to retaking the Senate majority, New
Hampshire is not optional. If Chris Pappas loses, Democrats need to
flip five seats instead of four. That math does not exist.
There is a recent and painful precedent for underestimating a close race.
* Bob Casey narrowly led in Pennsylvania polling for virtually the
entire 2024 cycle — and lost in an upset that shocked the entire
party.
* A race that has been tied for six months is not a comfortable
position. It is a warning sign. I have seen what happens when we
assume a race is in-hand and the resources don’t follow.
* We cannot afford to let New Hampshire’s 2026 race echo Pennsylvania’s
in 2024.
Chris Pappas has what it takes to win — but the outside spending gap is
real.
* Pappas has won New Hampshire’s toughest congressional district four
times. He knows how to reach voters across the aisle. His campaign has
outraised Sununu candidate-to-candidate with $4.2 million cash on hand
to Sununu’s $1.9 million.
* But that advantage disappears the moment the Senate Leadership Fund’s
$17 million hits the airwaves. In a race decided by a handful of
votes, being drowned out on TV by Republican money in the final weeks
is the ballgame.
* This is the moment to make sure New Hampshire doesn’t become the race
you wish you’d paid more attention to.
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Listen:
I don’t write memos like this for every race. I wrote this one because I’m
genuinely worried about what happens if New Hampshire slips away while
everyone’s looking somewhere else.
The numbers are clear. The stakes are real. Now I need you to act.
[ [link removed] ]Rush a donation to Chris Pappas right now. Don’t let New Hampshire be
the race we wish we’d paid more attention to.
[ [link removed] ]Donate $5 »
Thank you for your support. Let’s elect Chris Pappas and flip the Senate.
– James Carville
[ [link removed] ]James Carville
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